Energy PolicyHeinberg 4-6

Gary Flomenhoft

HEINBERG CHAPTER 4Non-petroleum energy sources

OIL:EASILY TRANSPORTEDENERGY DENSEREFINABLEVARIETY OF USES

HEINBERG CHAPTER 4ENERGY EVALUATION CRITERIA

EROI / NET ENERGYRENEWABILITYENVIRONMENTAL COSTSTRANSPORTABILITY/CONVENIENCE

HEINBERG CHAPTER 5BANQUET OF CONSEQUENCES

ECONOMY-MONEY AND DEBTTRANSPORTATIONFOOD AND AGRICULTUREHEATING AND COOLINGENVIRONMENTPUBLIC HEALTHINFORMATIONPOLITICS

ECONOMY-MONEY AND DEBT

BAD-PAYBACK WITH INTEREST IN ERAOF DECLINING ENERGY?

GOOD-REPLACEMENT OF ENERGY WITHLABOR

INFLATION/DEFLATION

TRANSPORTATION

CARS-COSTLY FUEL

AIRCRAFT-HYDROGEN?

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

BASED ON CHEAP FOSSIL FUELS

CAN FEED 2 BILLION PEOPLE WITH NO FOSSIL FUELS

HEATING AND COOLING

Effects on fatalities

Effects on refrigeration

ENVIRONMENT

Good or bad

PUBLIC HEALTH

MEDICAL CARE IS ENERGY INTENSIVE

INFORMATION

Plastics and electrical use

POLITICSPolitical rivalries will become even more extreme

Shrinking resource base will trumpRight vs. left argumants

GEO-POLITICS US POLICY

1)Support repressive regimes who have oil

2)Support Israel-serves intelligence interests

3)Terrorism double standard: Israel vs. Pales

4) Instability of Saudi Arabia-pretext forTaking oil fields?

MIDDLE EAST-IRAQSept 2003Iraq = #2 oil fields2002 Iraq-800,000 barrels/day#6 supplier for US

Expect Sanctions to collapse-Iraqi oil floodsthe market. WAR will be necessary to installA more compliant government to keep USfirst on list, especially if S.A. goes into chaos.

VENEZUELA

Hugo Chavez-increased governmentShare of oil revenuesApril 11, 2002 US backed coupOil exec installed. Counter-coup Reinstalled Chavez.

Other US coups?

When does the party end?

1) Peak in global per-capita energy production = 1979!

2) Peak in global net-energy availability = 1985-1995

3) Peak in oil extraction = 2006-2015

4) Peak in total energy production = same

5) Energy-led collapse of global economy = dependent onOil peak

6) Collapse of electricity grids = vulnerable

MANAGING THE COLLAPSE

Self, community, nation, world

FINAL WORD:

1)Better understanding of important problems

2)Realistic goals achievable

3)Generation’s responsibility