Post on 29-Mar-2018
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 1
Vårt livsviktiga vattenEn ödesfråga för världen
Gustaf Olsson Ekocentrum2 mars 2016
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
• Water• Energy• Climate• Population increase
Gustaf Olsson
The great challengesIn
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The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Board of Government Relations (BGR) recommend the development of a national policy that addresses the interdependencies of reliable sources and efficient uses of energy and water.
(ASME June 2012)
Nexus not only for waterprofessionals…
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IEEEEngineers of the New Millennium: The Global Water Challenge
”Water is such a basic human need that it takesreal ingenuity to find new ways to control, retrieve, and share this critical resource….."
”…join the discussion about the Global Water Challenge.”
http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/special-report-global-water-challenge
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 2
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
“Whiskey is for Drinking; Water is for Fighting.”– Mark Twain
Global water challenges
Gustaf Olsson
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Total water use by Country (2012)
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Water Stress index 2012
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 3
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More plastic than fishin the seas in 2050 (SVT 20 Jan 2016)
Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
100 kg plastics per person & year in Europe
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Mikroplaster från våra hem
Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
KällaNaturskyddsföreningen
Också i räkmackan, lunchkyckligenoch inlagda sillen (Ethel Forsberg)
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Global energy supply depends on water!
Gustaf Olsson
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
USA – summer 2012 –cooling thermal power plants
Millstone nuclear power plantWaterford, Conn
Shut down for> a week.
The water in Long Island Sound too warm (24.8°C)
to cool it (max 23.8°C)Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 4
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
France 2003 – the hot summer
Nuclear capacityreduced 7-15%during 5 weeksdoe to lack ofcooling water
Gustaf Olsson
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Thermal power generation vs. water scarcity - China, 2010 and 2030
China’s ‘Big Five’ power utilities (500 GW)are all located in water scarce regions
A 3-fold increase in water-intensive thermal power generation until 2030
Northern China60% of China’s thermal power capacity20% of China’s renewable freshwater supply
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, National Bureau of Statistics of China. Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
Tibet – the source of water for40% of the world population
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Planned dams in the Himalayas
• China– 100 dams in Tibet
• India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan:– >400 dams -- 160,000 MW
• Megong (Lancang) river: – 60 dams from Tibet to SE Asia
• 1 dam for every 32 km of river channel
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 5
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Climatechange
Gustaf Olsson
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Source: IPCC 2013
Climate change consequences
More extreme weather
Wetter regionsIncreasing water stress
HydropowerCooling thermal plants
Arctic oil exploration
Agriculture (=food) crisis
Gustaf Olsson
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
TyphoonHaiyan 2013Philippines
Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 6
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El Nino
Gustaf OlssonVasakyrkan Örebro 1 mars 2016
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
BrisbaneQueenslandJan. 2011
Gustaf Olsson
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
60 days in 2014 Indu
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The California drought
Gustaf OlssonVasakyrkan Örebro 1 mars 2016
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 7
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Climate impact on water resources
• Increasing contrast in precipitationbetween wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons
• Europe: decreasing river flows in Southern and Eastern Europe (summer) -increasing in other regions (winter);
• Southern Europe: Increasing frequency and intensity of droughts
• Increase in water temperature in rivers and lakes
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Economic losses related to weather
• 9 out of 10 most commonly reported disasters are directly or indirectly related to weather and climate
• Economic losses related to hydro-meteorological hazards:around US$ 10 billion in 1956-65 around US$ 500 billion in 1996-2005
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Climate change and water
Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
Currently, 1.6 billion people live in countries and regions with absolute water scarcity.The number is expected to rise to 2.8 billion people by 2025.
Source: World Bank 2016In
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Climate change and water (2)
Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
Integrated water management critical:• coastal zone management, • water supply and infrastructure• agriculture.
Source: World Bank 2016
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 8
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
After Paris Dec 2015 (1)
A triple transition.• Decarbonisation• Market design transition:
• Need for new regulatory frameworks and incentives to adapt to the new realities provided by the renewable energy revolution. Affects electricity, gas, transport and other sectors.
(Source: World Energy Council)
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
After Paris Dec 2015 (2)
• Resilience transition. • World Energy Council project:
Financing Resilient Energy Infrastructure• Impact of
extreme weather eventscybersecurity threatsenergy-water-food nexus on the energy sector.
• This implies a different way of thinking about infrastructure and critical systems.
(Source: World Energy Council)
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Source: Yann Arthus-Bertra
Abengourou, Ivory Coast
We will be 9 billion in 2050
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Population growth
1 more million every weekGustaf Olsson
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Sanitation
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Food production
More meat consumption
Water supplyGustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 9
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
IndiaChina
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016a global network for water professionals
Irrigation
Competing with: energy - manufacturing -drinking water -sanitation services
70% of total global withdrawals
Gustaf Olsson
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Drought in China 2010
• Around 50 million people faced watershortages in south-western China
• Damage to agriculture• Damage to hydropower
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 10
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Summer 2012 in USA –worst drought since the 1950s -80% of agricultural land was affected.
Price of corn soared
Corn for ethanol or for food?
Gustaf Olsson
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Food versus Feed and Fuel
Of the world food-crop calories:• 55% to directly nourish people• 36% goes to feed cattle• 9% goes to fuel
(biofuel and industrial products)
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
We get another 4% indirectly by eatingmeat, dairy or eggs
Gustaf Olsson
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Water for foodSome water footprints
02000400060008000
10000120001400016000
Liters/kg
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
Energy for water –supply and wastewater treatment
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 11
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Energy cost to produce cold water
kWh / m3
Surface water 0.5 - 4
Recycled water 1 - 6
Desalination 4 - 8
Bottled water 1000 - 4000
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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• Global coastal population 1.6 billion22% of the world population
• 21,000 desalination plants today Almost 50% use seawaterThe rest uses brackish water
• Typically a plant produces 1 liter of fresh water from around 2 liters of seawater
DesalinationIn
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• Desalination production in 201167 million m3/day10 liters/day each to 7 billion people!
• Water for 300 million people• By 2020:
Expected production 120 million m3
• Achievable costs 0.45 - 1 US$/m3
Desalination production
Source: Int. Desalination Association
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Clean Water Requires Energy!
• Pumping – Having efficient pumps
for adequate flows– Operating at dynamically
changing flows and pressures
• Aeration in wastewater treatment– Adequate compressors– Controlling the air flow for
variable loads
Increase efficiency!
Minimize air flow!
Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 12
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0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5 kWh per m3
Pumping from source towaterworks
0.09
1.9
0.04
2.3
1.4
0.17 0.04 0.24
0.64
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Wastewater treatment energy
Influentthermal content
Influentorganic C
Externalel. energy
Externalchemicals
GHG
BiogasSludge
Wastewatertreatment
AD
Effluentthermalenergy
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Min Median Max
kWh / kg BOD
Wastewater treatment Sweden
1.54.5
40
Small vs. large plantsType of loadType of operation
Source: Lingsten et al. 2008Swedish Water
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Water use
Pumpingsewage
Wastewatertreatment
Pumping towaterworks
Drinking watertreatment
Waterdistribution
0.24
0.22
> 50
0.25-0.5
0.06
kWh/m3
Swedish averages
Source: Lingsten et al. 2008Swedish Water
1.5 – 4.5 – 40kWh / kg BOD
Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 13
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Energy - treating impaired water
Requires more advanced technology
and more energy
Reused, brackish, sea water
Gustaf Olsson
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Water and Energy –inextricably linked
Demand for more energy
Demand for more water
Demand for more energy
Gustaf Olsson
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Water Energy
LandFood
• Population growth• Climate change• Urbanization
• Water for energy
• Water for food
• Energy for water• Energy for food
• Agricultureimpact on water quantityand quality
• Land use for energy
• Land use for food
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Fossil energy extraction
Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 14
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Oil consumption
02468
101214161820
million barrels/day
m3/person/year
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Source: National Geographic - N. Dakota
Hydraulic fracturing
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Shale gas resources 1012 m3
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
7
8,1
11
12
15
16
19
20
23
32
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Brazil
Russia
South Africa
Australia
Mexico
Canada
U.S.
Algeria
Argentina
China
World total 207
Gustaf Olsson
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n Hydraulicfracturing
15 – 20,000 m3
of water
Down to 3000 mUp to 100 MpaUp to 265 liters/s
About 750 chemicalslisted as additives
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 15
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• The fracking fluid– 80% water– 19% proppant – natural quartz + man made
ceramics– 0.5% chemicals – additives (many toxic) – to
inhibit bacterial growth, minimize friction, increase viscosity
• Volumes (during a life time of a well)– 25,000 – 500,000 m3 water– Up to 2000 tons of proppant– 50+ m3 (or 300+ barrels) of chemicals
Fracking fluid facts
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• Purposes: improve fluid viscosity, inhibit corrosion, and limit bacterial growth
• Contain:known carcinogens and air pollutants, BTEX: benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene
Harmful effects on the central nervous system
Chemicals in fracking fluidIn
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• Groundwater is sold to the oil companyinstead of being used for irrigation
• Conflict between energy and food!
Fracking often in dry regions
In the Barnett Shale (Texas) drillers paid 0.06 cents/m3
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Risks in fracking (1)
• Cement-casing failures may allow methane and other hazardous chemicals to migrate to water sources and water wells
• Fracking fluid contains known carcinogens and air pollutants - can leak into ground and surface water during the fracking process
• BTEX - benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene(harmful effects on the central nervous system), have been found in hydraulic fracturing products
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 16
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Risks in fracking (2)
Water contamination:• accidental spills during truck transportation• leakages through cracked or corroded cement
casing of the wells• fugitive gas through the rock fractures Wastewater (“produced water”) - serious risks:• 20-40% will be returned back to the surfaceBringing• chemicals, traces of oil-laced drilling mud,• iron, chromium, salt, • radioactive materials including Radium 226
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Crude oil Non-convoil
Coal Gas
40
90
150
4 6
Water consumption per liter or kg
Some sourcesclaim 20 timesmore thancrude oil
Source: World Energy Council, 2010
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Cooling thermal power plants
Gustaf Olsson
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n • Nuclear power plants– Typical temp. increase USA 16.5°C – 1000 MWe requires 33 m3/s– Rule of thumb for 1000 MWe: 25 – 43 m3/s
• Coal fired plants– Typical temp. increase USA 9.5°C– 1000 MWe requires 50 m3/s for T=10°C
Water withdrawal -once-through cooling
*Source: Richard Bozek, Edison Electric Initiative, 2011
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 17
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Water consumption in electrical generation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
liters / kWh
Carbon sequestration for fossilenergy generation will increase waterwithdrawal and consumption with 80%
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
HydropowerGustaf Olsson
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Hydropower operation
No other energy source, thermal or renewable,
can start up or change output as quickly as hydro in response to load demands – or can store energy on the same level as hydro to
meet upcoming demand
Potentially sustainable
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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699
428376 345
168131 122 92 84 67
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
TWh
Top producers of hydropower (2014)
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 18
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Major dams under development 201260% are multi-purpose
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Grand EthiopianRenaissanceDam (GERD)
63 km3
6000 MW
Source: King-Block 2014, J of Wat. and Climate Change
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra)
Gustaf Olsson
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480 km long; 16 km wideArea : 6,000 km² Capacity: 150 - 165 km³
The Lake Nasser
Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 19
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Nile flow at Aswan
Source: Strzepek et al. 2013
1910 1990
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Lake Mead 1971
Hoover Dam 1971El power for 500 000 homes
World Trade Center 1971
Elevation July 2015330 m above seaFull = 372 mLowest since 1937
Volume = 39% of full poolGustaf Olsson
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Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
1000 ft
20151971
1150 ft
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Large dams –impacts to consider
• Hydropower vs. flood control operation– Economy vs. risk
• Flooded area• Water loss – evaporation
– Power per reservoir area unit (MW/km2)– Temperature
• Sedimentation• Water quality
– Public health– Ecology
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Gustaf Olsson, Lund University 20
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Large dams –impacts to consider
• Flooded area– Persons requiring resettlement
• Number of peoples displaced/MW– Cultural property affected– Biomass flooded– Critical natural habitats affected– Floating aquatic vegetation
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
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Displacement of people/MW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
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1045
13501650
2740
52504214
5100
3147
8502
Area km2
Source: Ledec- Quintero (2003),Gustaf Olsson
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Large dams –impacts to consider
Water loss due to evaporation
• Temperature• Reservoir surface area
– Hectares per megawatt (ha/MW)– Power per area unit (MW/km2)
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Akosombo Dam, Ghana
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
Akosombo Dam, Ghana8500 km2 - 1180 MW3.6% of Ghana’s land area
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Evaporation
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
ha/MW Evaporation mm/year
EvaporationGm3/year liters/kWh
AkosomboGhana 720 2185 19 3000Sobradinho, Brazil 400 2841 12 1430Bayano, Panama 233 2156 0.75 1370Itezhi Tezhi, Zambia 62 2572 0.95 338Robert Bourossa, Canada
36 586 1.7 30
San Carlos, Colombia 0.26 1726 0.01 1
Source: Mekonnen &Hoekstra 2012
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Water use in electrical generation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
liters / kWhIn
dust
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Eng
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and
Aut
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Impact on water quality
• Temperature increase– Increasing harmful organisms
• Public health – water related diseases• Cooling water downstream• Fish species diversity and endemism• Greenhouse gases• Deterioration of water quality
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Watereconomy
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Water consumption vs. cost for 200 m3
(104 cities)
Cost
Con
sum
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Source:IWA Statistics
What would happen if the water will have a cost(”opportunity cost”, ”society cost”)?
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Progressive water tariffs
Gustaf OlssonEkocentrum 2 mars 2016
0 20 40 60 80 100 1200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
m3 per month
Tarif
f US
$ pe
r m3
Bangalore, India
Dakar, Senegal
Durban, South Africa
Nairobi, Kenya
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Renewable energy
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Renewables
• The role of hydro• New renewables
– Wind and solar PV
Financial support globally (2012):Renewable energy US$101 billion
Fossil fuel US$544 billion
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
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Wind power capacity (GW) 2014
91
61
3420 20
0102030405060708090
100
China US Germany Spain India
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
World total 318 GW
Annual growth 20% in last decade
China 16 GWnuclear
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Solar PV
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
1972 cost – 72 US$/W2014 cost – 0.7 US$/W
10 kW – 7000 US$
2008 – 16 GW worldwide2013 – 139 GW 2015 - 240 GW predicted2016 - 300-330 GW pred.
60% annualgrowthrecently
Gustaf Olsson
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Wind power capacity (GW) 2014
91
61
3420 20
0102030405060708090
100
China US Germany Spain India
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
World total 318 GW
Annual growth 20% in last decade
China 16 GWnuclear
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Solar PV
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
1972 cost – 72 US$/W2014 cost – 0.7 US$/W
10 kW – 7000 US$
2008 – 16 GW worldwide2013 – 139 GW 2015 - 240 GW predicted2016 - 300-330 GW pred.
60% annualgrowthrecently
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Solar PV examples
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016
China
Initial goal 2020 – 20 GWModified goal 2020 – 50 GWMay 2014, goal for 2017 – 70 GW
Australia
2007 : 8000 rooftop solar systems2014 : > 1 million
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Wind
Solar PV
No cooling water
No air pollution
No water pollution
Power for production?Power payback time?
Water available for other purposes
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New system structures
• Energy economy is localizing• Water systems will be more
decentralized• Two developments of electric power
– Local generation without a power grid– Local generation connected to a grid
• Controlling the smart power grid• Controlling the smart water grid
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IWA Publishing 2015
gustaf.olsson@iea.lth.se
Thank you!
Ekocentrum 2 mars 2016Gustaf Olsson