Post on 08-Feb-2016
description
EMISSION SCENARIOS
A consistent glance at the future
Goal
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 NOx SO2 NMVOC NH3
Starting Point
GHG Air HM POP
EnergyIndustrySolventsAgricul.
LULUCF
Waste
PSz
vTI
NationalProgram
NEC
Emission Scenarios
Approach
Central Emission System (CES):
Detailed data von activities (AD), emission factors (EF) and emissions (EM)
Time series from 1990 onwards,Represents baseline scenario (“REF“)
Defined interface:Aggregated AD, EM, IEF for CES-data
Standard format
Emission scenarios:
CES-consistent emission data for scenarios,Extrapolation of aggregated implied EF,“Translation” of GHG-scenarios for air pollution,Scenarios up to 2050
Projection and Scenario projects
1. Supply of base data for scenarios2. Adjustment for recalculation3. Project results feed into emission
projection database
Products
Public information:Trend tables, “real-time” inventory
Emission reporting:Tables in CRF- and NFR-format, gridded emissions, indicators
Extra assessments:Base data for internal and external assessments
Projections:“Translation” of GHG-scenarios for air pollution,Assessment of UBA-scenarios
1.
2.
3.
EM
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
AR*
EF=
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AR 1200 1205 1100 1050 1000 950 800 820 700
IEF 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,08 0,08
EM 120 120,5 110 105 100 95 80 65,6 56
Implementation
Central Emission System
Emission Scenarios
AR x EF = EM
2.496 20.922 20.922
153 1.512 1.512
Szenarios
REF I2.6 PSzV-MMS PSzV-MWMS PSzV-SWS
Result
TODO