Post on 31-Dec-2015
Election Day2008 =62% turnout2012 = 58% turnout
Swing states are always the decidersOhio has voted for the winner in the last 12years
Most important factors in voter behaviour
• AA always Democrat (83%) Hispanics are increasingly fought over
• More women vote Democrat – is this issue driven?
• 70% of elections between 1980-2012 were won by them. They like compromise
• Turnout is key
Party affiliation
Independent voters
Racegender
More important factors ………. What is missing?
•Less clear cut. Sparsely populated = Republican and Densely populated = Democrat
•Elections tend to be won in the suburbs
•Rich= Republican•Less = Democrat
•Young = Democrat•Old =Republican
•Regular attenders vote Republican
Religion Age
GeographyWealth
The 2012 election – Why did Obama win?
Incumbency factor 22 out 0f 31 have been won by incumbents sine 1796
Early and effective attacks on Romney
He ran a better campaign – Get out the vote
Romney – the man and his gaffes ‘Romney Shambles’
The Clinton and Bush effects
THE October Surprise – Hurricane Sandy