Election Day2008 =62% turnout2012 = 58% turnout

Swing states are always the decidersOhio has voted for the winner in the last 12years

Most important factors in voter behaviour

• AA always Democrat (83%) Hispanics are increasingly fought over

• More women vote Democrat – is this issue driven?

• 70% of elections between 1980-2012 were won by them. They like compromise

• Turnout is key

Party affiliation

Independent voters

Racegender

More important factors ………. What is missing?

•Less clear cut. Sparsely populated = Republican and Densely populated = Democrat

•Elections tend to be won in the suburbs

•Rich= Republican•Less = Democrat

•Young = Democrat•Old =Republican

•Regular attenders vote Republican

Religion Age

GeographyWealth

The 2012 election – Why did Obama win?

Incumbency factor 22 out 0f 31 have been won by incumbents sine 1796

Early and effective attacks on Romney

He ran a better campaign – Get out the vote

Romney – the man and his gaffes ‘Romney Shambles’

The Clinton and Bush effects

THE October Surprise – Hurricane Sandy