Post on 23-Jan-2018
ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Rural roads, welfare and nutrition
David Stifel (Lafayette College) and Bart Minten (IFPRI)
1
Background
• Average calorie consumption 9% higher in last decade
• Poverty declined from 55% to 33% (1.9 USD per day)
• Stunting of children reduced from 57% to 40% (2000 – 2014)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2005 2011
Kcal
/day
/ad
ult
eq
uiv
alen
t
cereals non-cereals
3
Background
• Important changes in Ethiopia in market access during that period
1996/1997 2010/2011
4
The Question:
What are the impacts of improved market access on household well-being and nutrition?
To what can we attribute these impacts?
5
Data
• Sample area selected purposefully
o Homogeneous region
o Except for transport costs
o Without a road
• Households’ circumstances differ because of different transport costs…
…not because of land characteristics, etc.
6
7
Market Access – Transport Costs
• Donkey costs (Birr/kg)
o Cost of renting donkey
o Weight donkey can carry
• Economic transport costs
o Include the opportunity cost of time
8
Household Per Capita Consumption & Market Access
0
50
010
00
15
00
20
00
25
00
Birr
/ pe
rson
0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Per Capita Household Consumption Food
Non-Food
9
Food Security
0.1
.2.3
Perc
ent o
f H
ouse
ho
lds
Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote
Worry Not Enough Food in Past 30 Days
1-2 Times 3-10 Times
10+ Times
10
Food Security0
.1.2
.3
Perc
ent o
f H
ouse
ho
lds
Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote
Ate Fewer Meals in Past 30 Days
1-2 Times 3-10 Times
10+ Times
0.1
.2.3
Perc
ent o
f H
ouse
ho
lds
Least Remote Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Most Remote
Ate Smaller Meals in Past 30 Days
1-2 Times 3-10 Times
10+ Times
11
Dietary Diversity
01
23
45
6
Avera
ge
Num
ber
of F
ood
Gro
ups
0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
All Household Members Chldren under age 5
Average Number of Food Groups in Household Diet
12
Child Stunting-6
-20
26
He
ight-
for-
Age
Z-s
core
0 20 40 60 80Transport Costs (Birr/Quintal)
bandwidth = .8
Stunting: HAZ < -2
• 36 percent stunted
• Statistically not different by remoteness
13
What can explain the relationship between market access and wellbeing?
1. Agricultural Production
2. Terms of trade
o Marketed surplus
o Purchased consumption items
14
Value of HH Agric Production
0
20
00
40
00
60
00
Birr
0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Total Production Cereals
Oilseeds Vegetables
Despite similarities in land productivity…
15
Household Marketed Surplus
0
20
00
40
00
60
00
Birr
0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Total Production Marketed Surplus
Own Consumption
16
Household Food Consumption & Market Access
0
50
010
00
15
00
20
00
25
00
Birr
/ pe
rson
0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Per Capita Food Consumption Purchased
Own-Consumption
17
Household Food Purchases
0
10
00
20
00
30
00
40
00
50
00
Birr
0 20 40 60 80Transport Cost (Birr/kg)
Total Food Purchases Meat
Beverages Cereals
Spices (incl salt & sugar)
18
Nutrition knowledge and its impact on children’s dietary diversity
19
Conclusions
Households with greater market access have…
• Greater consumption
• More food security
• Greater dietary diversity
20
Conclusions
These differences may be attributed to…
• Greater agricultural production
• Improved terms of trade that result in increased…o Marketed agricultural
surplus
o Purchased consumption goods
21
Conclusions
• But, no discernable effects on nutrition outcomes
• Why?o Number of food groups low for all households
o Food consumption alone is not enough to affect nutrition outcomes
o Limited access to clean water, sanitation & healthcare throughout the survey area
o Knowledge on nutrition impact, but more impact if closer to market