Post on 01-Oct-2020
Efectos de los cambios ambientales y económicos
globales en la resiliencia del Nexo en Brasil
Dr. Pablo Salas
Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource
Governance (C-EENRG)
Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge
Introducción
BRIDGE 2016/2019 – Proyecto de Investigación
Building Resilience In a Dynamic Global
Economy: Complexity across scales in the
food- water- energy nexus.
NEXO Cambio
Ambiental
Global
Cambio
Económico
Global
Creando un Nexo resiliente en Brasil
Potenciales anomalías climáticas futuras en Brasil
Source: CMIP5 climate data
Arriba: Chatham House (2018), ‘resourcetrade.earth’, http://resourcetrade.earth/
Abajo: E3ME, based on data from Eurostat, OECD, national statistics, Asian
Development Bank, UN prodcom
Mercado global de productos agrícolas
Top 5 trade flows Top 5 exporters Top 5 importers
Porcentajes de las exportaciones correspondientes a productos agrícolas y alimentos, por país
Nexo en Brasil: Cuatro grandes desafios
1. Agua y Energía: Dependencia de la hidroelectricidad
2. Energía y Alimentación: Políticas de biocombustibles y competencia
por los alimentos
3. Agua y Alimentación: Cambio climático, cambios hidrológicos y su
efecto en la agricultura
4. Agua, Energía y Alimentación: Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo
y deforestación
Carne de Vacuno Carne de Ave Carne de Cerdo
La industria global de carne esta cambiando, especialmente en países en desarrollo
Producción de carne a nivel global
Data: FAO Stat 2016
4 - Agua, Energía y Alimentación: Cambios indirectos
en el uso de suelo y deforestación
Arima EY, Richards P, Walker R, & Caldas MM (2011). Statistical confirmation of
indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon. Environ Res Lett 6(2).
Statistical evidence: Soybeans buy out pastures, cattle farmers move into the forest
Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo y deforestación
- Aumenta la demanda por carne en China debido al aumento del ingreso
- Se importa soya para alimentar los animales
- Brasil produce soya para exportar
- Productores de soya desplazan a los ganaderos
- Ganaderos deforestan las zonas de Amazonia y Cerrado
- La deforestación intensifica el cambio climático a nivel local, afectando la
disponibilidad de agua
Brasil
Productores de soya
desplazan a los ganaderos
Ganaderos producen
deforestación
China
Crece la demanda
por carne
Amazonia y Cerrado
Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo y deforestación
https://www.ceenrg.landecon.cam.ac.uk/publications/working-papers-1
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Creando un Nexo resiliente en Brasil
Oficinas de
Transferencia
Tecnológica
(OTT)
Investigadores
INVESTIGACIÓN INNOVACIÓN
Nexo
Sector
Privado Tomadores de
Decisión
Creando un Nexo resiliente en Brasil
Obrigado
pas80@cam.ac.uk
Macroeconomics
(Lead: Hector Pollitt)
Building Resilience In a
Dynamic Global Economy
Biophysical modelling,
Climate change
(Lead: Neil Edwards)
Land-use, energy, diffusion of
technology, emissions
(Lead: J-F Mercure)
WP2 Quantitative modelling
Environmental law,
policy, policy
engagement
(Lead: Jorge Vinuales)
WP3 Policy Engagement
Pilot action projects,
Dissemination, public engagement
(Lead: Baltazar Guerra)
WP4-5 Quantitative modelling
Linking UK-Brazil
technology transfer offices
(Lead: Pablo Salas)
WP6 Technology transfer
Policy sphere
BRIDGE:
Nuestra plataforma de modelamiento integrada
Transport Transport technology
substitution model
Agriculture Competing uses
of land
Industry Technological change in
Industrial processes
Power Power sector technology
substitution model
Energy Prices /
Resource costs
Energy Resources Natural resource use and
depletion
Global Economy Macroeconometric model of
the global economy
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
Global warming Precipitation
anomalies Other climate
impacts GHG Emissions
Carbon cycle model
simulation
Climate System Climate model
simulation
Plant growth Land productivity
Policy
assumptions
Policy Assumptions Economic feedbacks GHG Emissions
Environmental Changes GHG Concentrations
Land productivity
Our integrated Science-Policy BRIDGE
Policy-
Makers,
Stakeholders
Policy
experts
International
Lawyers
Perspectives
Modellers,
scientists,
economists,
etc
Cross-sectoral
Policy
formulation
Multidismensional
Outcomes, impacts,
within uncertainty Science-policy
dialogue
Mercure, Pollitt, Vinuales, Bassi & Edwards, Global Env. Change 2016
LINKS 2015 – Networking Grant
Linkages between energy, food and water
consumption for Brazil in the context of climate
change mitigation strategies.
Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo y deforestación
‘Expansion of global demand for soy products and biofuel poses threats to food
security and the environment. One environmental impact that has raised serious
concerns is loss of Amazonian forest through indirect land use change . […]’
IOP PUBLISHING ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 024010 (7pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024010
Statistical confirmation of indirect landuse change in the Brazilian Amazon
Eugenio Y Arima1,4, Peter Richards2, Robert Walker2 andMarcellus M Caldas3
1 Department of Geography and the Environment, The University of Texas, GRG 334,
Mailcode A3100, Austin, TX 78712, USA2 Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 116 Geography Building,
East Lansing, MI 48824, USA3 Department of Geography, Kansas State University, 118 Seaton Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506,
USA
E-mail: arima@austin.utexas.edu
Received 21 December 2010
Accepted for publication 3 May 2011
Published 24 May 2011
Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/6/024010
Abstract
Expansion of global demand for soy products and biofuel poses threats to food security and the
environment. One environmental impact that has raised serious concerns is loss of Amazonian
forest through indirect land use change (ILUC), whereby mechanized agriculture encroaches on
existing pastures, displacing them to the frontier. This phenomenon has been hypothesized by
many researchers and projected on the basis of simulation for the Amazonian forests of Brazil.
It has not yet been measured statistically, owing to conceptual difficulties in linking distal land
cover drivers to the point of impact. The present article overcomes this impasse with a spatial
regression model capable of linking the expansion of mechanized agriculture in settled
agricultural areas to pasture conversions on distant, forest frontiers. In an application for a
recent period (2003–2008), the model demonstrates that ILUC is significant and of considerable
magnitude. Specifically, a 10% reduction of soy in old pasture areas would have decreased
deforestation by as much as 40% in heavily forested counties of the Brazilian Amazon.
Evidently, the voluntary moratorium on primary forest conversions by Brazilian soy farmers has
failed to stop the deforestation effects of expanding soy production. Thus, environmental policy
in Brazil must pay attention to ILUC, which can complicate efforts to achieve its REDD targets.
Keywords: soy, cattle, deforestation, Amazonia, biofuel
1. Introduction
Brazil’s commitment in 2008 to reduce deforestation in the
interest of the UN’s Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and Forest Degradation (REDD) program has raised hopes for
a new era of sustainable relations between coupled natural
and human systems in Amazonia (Nepstad et al 2009).
Nevertheless, deforestation continues here, with the expansion
of pastures for cattle ranching accounting for the lion’s share
of forest loss (Naylor et al 2005, Margulis 2004, Walker
et al 2009a). Recently, some have called attention to the
4 Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.
impacts of soy production, and direct encroachments of soy
fields into the Amazonian forest have been observed (Brown
et al 2005, Morton et al 2006, Hecht and Mann 2008, Walker
et al 2009b). The present research letter considers the threat
posed by soy, and mechanized agriculture more generally,
which arises by virtue of indirect land use change, or ILUC.
ILUC takes place when agricultural activities displaced from
one region are reconstituted in another one (Searchinger et al
2008, Lapola et al 2010). In such a situation, deforestation
at particular locations occurs partly due to events far away,
a circumstance that complicates measurement. This letter
uses spatial regression modeling to provide the first statistical
1748-9326/11/024010+07$33.00 © 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd Printed in the UK1
Arima EY, Richards P, Walker R, & Caldas MM (2011). Statistical confirmation of
indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon. Environ Res Lett 6(2).
Balances de Soya entre Brasil y China
Data: FAO Stat 2016
4 - Agua, Energía y Alimentación: Cambios indirectos
en el uso de suelo y deforestación