Post on 25-Dec-2015
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual ConferenceCommercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum
San Francisco, CA
November 8, 2013
GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no Fresh Recession
(Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
U.S. Total Payroll Jobs(8 million lost … 7 million gained)
In thousands
States with Fast Job Growth
State Job Growth Rate1 North Dakota 3.2%2 Utah 2.7%3 Idaho 2.5%4 Texas 2.4%5 Colorado 2.3%6 Minnesota 2.3%7 Georgia 2.1%8 Washington 2.1%9 Arizona 2.0%
10 New Jersey 2.0%
Unemployment Rate
Employment Rate
Labor Force Participation Rate:Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women
(Adults 20 years old and up)
Well Shy of Long Run Trend (6 to 8 million more jobs needed)
In millions
Consumer Spending Growth(2% growth; not 3% or 4%)
Business Spending Growth(3% growth; not sustained 5% to 10%)
Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?)
%
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing
$ million
Consumer Price InflationLess than 2%
(% change from one year ago)
Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 2% and On the Way to 3%)
Household Net Worth
Federal Government Spending(Stimulus … Flat … Decline)
Shrinking Budget Deficit(in $billion)
Federal Government Annual Spending/Revenue
$ trillion
Federal Debt Held By Public(Cumulative Accumulation as % of GDP)
Germany
• Too High Trade Surplus• No Stimulus• Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high
debt from prior deficits)• Blame Germany for holding back the World
Economy?
• Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
International Sovereign Borrowing CostCountry 10-year Government Borrowing Cost
Japan 0.6%
Switzerland 1.1%
Germany 1.7%
France 2.3%
Canada 2.4%
U.S. 2.5%
Britain 2.6%
China 4.0%
Spain 4.1%
Italy 4.2%
Russia 7.5%
India 8.6%
Greece 8.7%
Brazil 11.6%
Consumer ConfidenceNow and About Future
Productivity and Income DoublingProductivity Growth Years for Income to
Double Examples
1% 72 years U.S. today?
2% 36 years 1970 to 2007 (pre-financial market crash)
3% 24 years U.S. post-war to 1970
5% 14 years Asian Tigers
GDP Forecast
Commercial Market Activity
Transactions Up 27% YoY – 2013 YTD
Source: Real Capital Analytics
CRE Prices Advance – CBD Off & Apt Lead
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Spreads Remain Elevated
Source: Real Capital Analytics
REALTOR® Markets Deal Size
Source: NAR
REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound
Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets
Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
SIOR Markets in Recovery
CCIM Quarterly Market Trends
Apartment Fundamentals
Apartment Rents
Apartment Vacancy Comparison
Apartment Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Renter Households In thousands
Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow
In thousands
Household Formation Bursting Out(in millions)
Office Fundamentals
Office Rents
Office Vacancy Comparison
Office Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Jobs in Professional Business and Financial Services … at New PeakIn millions
Retail Fundamentals
Retail Rents
Retail Vacancy Comparison
Retail Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Jobs in Retail Trade(Still Below Prior Peak)
Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices18% cumulative gains over 2 years
Median Existing Home Price
Industrial Fundamentals
Industrial Rents
Industrial Vacancy Comparison
Industrial Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Jobs in Wholesale Trade(Still Below Prior Peak)
In millions
U.S. International TradeLong-Term Growth
U.S. International TradeBut No Growth in Recent Years
International Dimension
International CRE Investment in U.S.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Volume of International Transactions (April 2012 to March 2013)
REALTORS® Working With International Clients
• In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of REALTORS® Have Worked with an International Client.– Clients Residing in Another
Country: 51 Percent.– Clients Residing in this Country:
49 Percent.– A Niche Market on Buyer Side:
Facility with languages and cultures very helpful.
– On Sellers Side—Understanding of foreign cultures helpful.
Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by CountryTop Countries—2013 Report
*China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan
Top State Destinations—2013 Report
Majority of International Buyers Pay All Cash
Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign Purchases
U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan(Yuan per $)
U.S. Dollar vs. Euro($ per Euro)
Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness(Broad Trade Weighted)
REALTORS® Working With International Clients