Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION...
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![Page 1: Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at NAR Annual Conference.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649de55503460f94addae1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook
Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.Chief Economist
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Presentation at NAR Annual ConferenceCommercial Real Estate & Economic Trends Forum
San Francisco, CA
November 8, 2013
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GDP Growth … Unimpressive but no Fresh Recession
(Could be on the verge of recession if not for housing recovery)
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U.S. Total Payroll Jobs(8 million lost … 7 million gained)
In thousands
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States with Fast Job Growth
State Job Growth Rate1 North Dakota 3.2%2 Utah 2.7%3 Idaho 2.5%4 Texas 2.4%5 Colorado 2.3%6 Minnesota 2.3%7 Georgia 2.1%8 Washington 2.1%9 Arizona 2.0%
10 New Jersey 2.0%
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Unemployment Rate
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Employment Rate
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Labor Force Participation Rate:Record Low for Men and Cyclical Low for Women
(Adults 20 years old and up)
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Well Shy of Long Run Trend (6 to 8 million more jobs needed)
In millions
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Consumer Spending Growth(2% growth; not 3% or 4%)
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Business Spending Growth(3% growth; not sustained 5% to 10%)
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Monetary and Fiscal Policies
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Monetary Policy by Federal Reserve (zero rate policy to 2015 ?)
%
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Federal Reserve Balance Sheet from Quantitative Easing
$ million
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Consumer Price InflationLess than 2%
(% change from one year ago)
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Rising Renters’ and Homeowners’ Rent Growth (Above 2% and On the Way to 3%)
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Household Net Worth
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Federal Government Spending(Stimulus … Flat … Decline)
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Shrinking Budget Deficit(in $billion)
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Federal Government Annual Spending/Revenue
$ trillion
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Federal Debt Held By Public(Cumulative Accumulation as % of GDP)
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Germany
• Too High Trade Surplus• No Stimulus• Budget Surplus in 2013 (though still has high
debt from prior deficits)• Blame Germany for holding back the World
Economy?
• Or Emulate Germany’s Economic Reforms?
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International Sovereign Borrowing CostCountry 10-year Government Borrowing Cost
Japan 0.6%
Switzerland 1.1%
Germany 1.7%
France 2.3%
Canada 2.4%
U.S. 2.5%
Britain 2.6%
China 4.0%
Spain 4.1%
Italy 4.2%
Russia 7.5%
India 8.6%
Greece 8.7%
Brazil 11.6%
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Consumer ConfidenceNow and About Future
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Productivity and Income DoublingProductivity Growth Years for Income to
Double Examples
1% 72 years U.S. today?
2% 36 years 1970 to 2007 (pre-financial market crash)
3% 24 years U.S. post-war to 1970
5% 14 years Asian Tigers
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GDP Forecast
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Commercial Market Activity
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Transactions Up 27% YoY – 2013 YTD
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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CRE Prices Advance – CBD Off & Apt Lead
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Spreads Remain Elevated
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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REALTOR® Markets Deal Size
Source: NAR
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REALTOR® CRE Markets Rebound
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Prices Accelerate in REALTOR® Markets
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Small Banks Important to REALTORS®
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SIOR Markets in Recovery
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CCIM Quarterly Market Trends
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Apartment Fundamentals
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Apartment Rents
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Apartment Vacancy Comparison
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Apartment Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Renter Households In thousands
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Homeowner Households has not Grown since 2006 … but Primed to Grow
In thousands
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Household Formation Bursting Out(in millions)
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Office Fundamentals
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Office Rents
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Office Vacancy Comparison
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Office Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Jobs in Professional Business and Financial Services … at New PeakIn millions
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Retail Fundamentals
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Retail Rents
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Retail Vacancy Comparison
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Retail Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Jobs in Retail Trade(Still Below Prior Peak)
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Spending Effect from Higher Home Prices18% cumulative gains over 2 years
Median Existing Home Price
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Industrial Fundamentals
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Industrial Rents
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Industrial Vacancy Comparison
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Industrial Investments
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Jobs in Wholesale Trade(Still Below Prior Peak)
In millions
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U.S. International TradeLong-Term Growth
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U.S. International TradeBut No Growth in Recent Years
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International Dimension
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International CRE Investment in U.S.
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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Volume of International Transactions (April 2012 to March 2013)
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REALTORS® Working With International Clients
• In Past 12 Months, 27 Percent of REALTORS® Have Worked with an International Client.– Clients Residing in Another
Country: 51 Percent.– Clients Residing in this Country:
49 Percent.– A Niche Market on Buyer Side:
Facility with languages and cultures very helpful.
– On Sellers Side—Understanding of foreign cultures helpful.
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Percent of Total U.S. International Sales by CountryTop Countries—2013 Report
*China includes PROC, Hong Kong, Taiwan
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Top State Destinations—2013 Report
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Majority of International Buyers Pay All Cash
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Impact of the Value of the Dollar on Foreign Purchases
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U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yuan(Yuan per $)
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U.S. Dollar vs. Euro($ per Euro)
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Broad U.S. Dollar Strength/Weakness(Broad Trade Weighted)
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REALTORS® Working With International Clients