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8/6/2019 Ebb and Flow: The Changing Dynamics of China's Real Estate Investment Market--Jones Lang Lasalle
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Ebb and Flow:
The Changing Dynamics
of Chinas Real Estate
Investment Market
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China investment market outlook 3
Foreign investors buyers return
In 2010, en bloc real estate investment
transactions reached a record USD 15.02 billion,
an increase of 34.6% compared to the year before
(Figure 1). Foreign players shook off the effects
of the global nancial crisis. Those from other
parts of Asia Pacic purchased en bloc real estate
assets worth a record USD 5.1 billion, eclipsing
the USD 3.5 billion purchased in 2007. Indeed,
investors from Hong Kong and Singapore showed
themselves to be nimble, well connected and
aggressive in China in 2010, and we have seen
more clearly than ever the importance of China to
the regions investors.
In 2010, for the third straight year, purchases
by foreign investors from outside Asia were
less than USD 1 billion after peaking at almost
USD 3 billion in 2007. One interesting difference
between the two foreign investor groups has
been how investment purchases by US- and
European-based investors have been extremely
concentrated in Shanghai (Figure 2) while
Asia-based real estate investors have shown a
willingness and ability to purchase assets all over
China. With a relatively limited trading stock of
buildings in Shanghai weve seen ofce assets
like Platinum and Cross Tower trade on an almost
annual basis these foreign investors will be
severely limited if they keep to such a narrow view
of direct investments going forward.
Figure 1. En bloc real estate investment transactions in China by source of capital
China Real Estate Investment Transactions
Purchases(USD
Billion)
02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
4
8
12
16
Domestic Foreign (Intra-Regional, Asia Pac) Foreign (Inter-Regional)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Figure 2. Investors from outside Asia have focused heavily on Shanghai
Real Estate Investment Transactions in Shanghai as a percentage of those in all of China
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Purchasesin
Shanghai
Foreign (Intra-Regional, Asia Pac) Foreign (Inter-Regional)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
There is genuine concern in the government about hot money
inows now that the Chinese yuan is once again appreciating
against the US dollar. In November and December 2010, the State
Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE , )
and the Ministry of Finance and Commerce (MOFCOM,
) issued regulations indicating that foreign
investments in real estate considered to be speculative in nature
may not receive the required government approvals. In our view,
currency appreciation has not been and will not be the major driver of
real estate investment decisions in China. As we will see in this paper, investors both foreign and domestic have strong market fundamentals on their side.
Consequently we do not anticipate the SAFE or MOFCOM regulations will pose
major obstacles in the year ahead.
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China investment market outlook 5
healthcare facilities. Given their alignment with
government objectives, we may expect some
innovations in funding and development nancing
for these emerging asset classes like REITs,
funds and trusts, and securitisations to emerge in
the future, with uniquely Chinese characteristics
that adapt them to the local market situation.
Let us rst review the insurance sector as one
of the most high-prole changes of recent years
and a key topic of our earlier paper, The Rise of
Mainland Chinas Institutional Investors.
Insurance companies get the green lightIn August and September 2010, the China
Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC,
) issued modied rules on
investment by Chinas insurance giants including
the long-awaited details regarding investment in
real estate (Table 1). The promulgation of these
regulations came nearly one year after the law
was adopted permitting their participation in
the market.
One of the key details in the new regulations
was insurance companies being able to invest
up to 10% of their total assets in property and
property related nancial products, a limit at
the upper end of the expected range. Total
insurance company assets in China were just
over RMB 5 trillion (USD 770 billion) at the end
of 2010, and growing 25% per year (Figure 3).
With a restriction on investment in residential
development projects, Chinas insurers could
theoretically purchase the entire tradable stock of
commercial real estate assets several times over.
In fact, with RMB 985 billion (USD 149 billion) in
new capital accumulated in 2010, a 10% allocation
to real estate (Figure 4) would have enabled
Chinas insurance companies alone to buy the
equivalent of all the en bloc real estate investment
transactions done in 2010. Clearly, however, this
did not happen.
But what will this mean for the market and why
havent we seen much activity from the insurance
companies so far? First, commercial real estate
generally and real estate investment specically,
Figure 3. The total capital of Chinas insurance companies has grown large quickly
China Insurance Company Capital
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1
0
2
3
4
5
6
Gro
wth(y-o-ychange)
Total
Capital(RMBtrillion)
Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission, Jones Lang LaSalle analysis
Figure 4.At 10% of capital, insurance companies have the potential to makesignicant real estate investments
New Insurance Company Capital for Potential Real Estate Investment
RMB(billion)
5
0
10
15
20
25
30
2Q06
1Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission, Jones Lang LaSalle analysis
Table 1: Key regulations regarding insurance company investment in property
Can invest up to 10% of total assets into property and property relatednancial products
Can invest in commercial property (ofce, retail, healthcare), for self-use, and forelderly care use
Minimum 5 year holding period on property investments
No residential development investments or investments in non-listed developers
Must report property investments to CIRC on a quarterly and annual basis
Real estate investment management team must be of a certain minimum size andqualication, though out-sourcing is permitted as a supplement
Investment in overseas real estate assets is permitted
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6 Advance
are relatively new industries in China. Insurance
companies are in a highly competitive market
for both the talent to build their real estate
investment management teams and for the assets
themselves. Several groups, such as Ping An,
PICC, Taikang and China Life, are making good
progress in terms of building their real estate
investment management capabilities. However
it takes more than just people for an insurance
company to invest in real estate. Internal risk
management, compliance, investment portfolio
management and asset-liability matching
infrastructure are needed. Real estate asset
management and property management
capabilities are also required. It will probably be
at least another year before we see insurance
companies showing up in the market in a big way.
Nonetheless, the sheer volume of capital they
have to potentially invest in real estate assets has
impacted the market. Investment yields across
commercial real estate in China are at their lowest
levels ever, even as interest rates have begunto rise. For existing owners of real estate this
has been a boon and the insurance companies
demand for assets promises a secure exit strategy
for years to come. On the other hand, there is
a real risk that commercial real estate markets
in Tier II cities, which already have a tendency
towards oversupply, will see a new speculative
building cycle. This will be the case if insurance
companies do not employ rigorous evaluation,
due diligence and approval standards in their
investment decision making.
Quality making the investment grade?
As Chinas insurance companies build their
capabilities to invest in real estate in a big way,
so too should developers be looking at the quality
of the commercial products they construct. A
lack of investment grade stock will surely be
another limiting factor for insurance companies
going forward. Insurance companies are core
investors for which real estate as an asset class
is ideal as a long-term investment to offset their
long-term liabilities. But for real estate to actually
be a suitable long-term investment asset, one that
maintains and grows in value over time, it should
be designed and built as a quality product and then
be professionally maintained. High quality property
and asset management capabilities, or service
providers, will be essential in preserving the value
of these investments. In fact, one could argue that
until the pendulum in China swings meaningfully
toward valuing income generation and asset quality
over its capital appreciation potential, Chinas
insurance companies should exert as much effort
looking for investment grade assets overseas as
they do looking within China. Today, the relative
risk and return proles for real estate in more
mature Asian and Western markets remain quite
attractive following the global nancial crisis. This
kind of international investment naturally raises a
different set of contingent risks such as currency
and political risks. However, it is noteworthy that
under current regulations, such activity is already
approved (see Table 1).
REITs and RMB FundsWe mentioned at the start of this report that REITs
seemed as though they had been six months
away for several years and enthusiasm about
their imminent approval waxes and wanes like
the seasons. Today there is no reason to believe
that hurdles to the approval of REITs are any
closer to being resolved. It is still not clear if they
will fall under the China Securities Regulatory
Commission (CSRC,
) or the China Banking Regulatory Commission(CBRC, ) and be listed versus
non-listed vehicles. We believe the government is
still concerned about the introduction of additional
large pools of investment capital fuelling asset
price ination. For this reason alone, they may
choose to keep REITs on the sidelines indenitely.
That could spell trouble for domestic groups who
have been accumulating assets to put into a REIT,
expecting their approval months or years ago.
One possibility that could materialise in the near
term is the creation of a REIT-like structure
to nance low-rent housing development.
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China investment market outlook 7
While REITs are not traditionally a vehicle for
development projects, this type of scheme in
China would be virtually indistinguishable from a
government bond. The government determines the
yield or margin by setting both the land price and
the rents. It even provides an implicit guarantee on
the REITs cashow through its income subsidies
to the tenants. The major risk lies in the developers
ability to manage the cost of construction. There
have been media reports of a potential REIT similar
to this being considered in Tianjin.
RMB funds, and their ability to invest in real estateassets, also stand on ambiguous legal ground
with regulations being developed on a pilot basis
in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin as these cities try
to attract and develop a domestic private equity
industry. A number of prominent foreign fund
managers have established the relevant on-shore
fund management enterprise entities (FEIMCs)
to set up RMB funds, with Prax Capital notably
raising an RMB 600 million real estate fund in
2. Troutman Sanders, RMB Funds in China by Edward Epstein and Kim Tung, November 20103. Caixin online, China Tightens Controls on SOE Property Lending, 6 Dec 2010
4. Xinhua, 20 more SOEs to fully exit real estate business, 22 Feb 2011
What of the 78 SOEs who were required to exit the real estate industry by Chinas State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration
Commission (SASAC, ) last March? In December 2010, China Security Journal reported that banks were notied they should only
make development loans to SOEs if they are among the 16 approved to remain in the real estate industry3. In February 2011, SASAC
provided an update, saying that 20 more of those SOEs will have fully exited the real estate industry by the end of the year, in addition to
the 14 from 20104. We have believed, since SASAC rst announced its intention to bar from the real estate industry those SOEs whose
main business was not real estate development, that the key issue was the rapidly rising price of land. By removing these cash-rich
buyers from the market for land and development, they hoped to be able to curtail both the money chasing the land auctions and
the hubris driving bidders eager to be dubbed Land Kings. We believe this shows the government has taken a multi-pronged approach to taming rising housing prices and we do admit a sense of relief that the SOEs exit from the market
has thus far been an orderly one.
Shanghais Pudong New Area in 2009. Under
regulations effective March 2010, Carlyle Group
and domestic company Fosun formed the rst
foreign invested partnership (FIP), which many
others have since emulated2.
The excitement, though, is in the way the
regulators seem to be responding to the needs of
this fast developing industry in real time, at least
in government terms. Weve seen announcements
on inbound currency convertibility and the impact
of the percentage of foreign capital on the funds
treatment as a domestic investor. However,uncertainty remains, in part, because unlike many
aspects of hi-tech and clean-tech investing, real
estate is not categorised as an encouraged
industry for foreign investment. Still, there is
tremendous excitement among foreign fund
managers because of the huge pools of domestic
capital that can be tapped, such as the insurance
companies, pension funds and high net worth
individuals, and the chance to operate on an
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8 Advance
equal footing with domestic investors. For most
real estate fund managers, their future in China is
in raising capital onshore and then investing that
capital in China and eventually offshore.
Fundamental Opportunities
So with all of these challenges, where are the
opportunities in Chinas real estate investment
market? How will changes in the market
participants, as well as the markets fundamentals,
create opportunities for investors going forward?
Figure 6. Grade A Ofce rents are on the rise
Grade A Office Rent
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
1Q08
3Q07
1Q09
3Q08
1Q10
3Q09
1Q11
3Q110
1Q12
3Q11
3Q12
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
G
radeAOfficeRent(RMB/sqm/
year)
Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 4Q10
Figure 5. Strong demand has lowered vacancy rates in Chinas Tier I cities
Grade A Office Market
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1000,000
1200,000
1,400,000
Vacancy
GradeAOfficeSupplyandDemand(sqm)
Supply
2006
2008
2007
2009
2007
2009
2007
2009
2007
2009
2010
2012
2011
2006
2008
2010
2011
2011
2011
2012
2006
2008
2010
2012
2006
2008
2010
2012
Net Take Up Vacancy (RHS)
Beijing Shanghai Guangzhou Shenzhen
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle (Real Estate Intelligence Service), 4Q10 Healthy ofce markets
In the ofce sector, just as the market was
beginning to rebound in 2009, we saw the SOEs
be very active in purchasing buildings out ofthe future supply for self-use. Today the ofce
markets in Chinas Tier I cities are healthy, having
enjoyed record amounts of net take-up in 2010
(Figure 5). Vacancy rates improved, dramatically
in Beijings case, and rents rose across the board.
While its much easier for an owner-occupier to
purchase a brand new building, since they wont
have to wait for any lease expirations, investors
prefer stabilised assets with proven tenant appeal.
As more investors become convinced of theimproving fundamentals and outlook for the ofce
market (Figure 6), interest has grown steadily
in this sector. However, there are simply not
that many tradable ofce assets for institutional
investors to purchase. As a result, we have now
seen some assets, like Platinum and Cross Tower
in Shanghai, trade three or more times as capital
values have risen and cap rates compressed.
Bolder investors are now looking for value in
emerging areas within the Tier I cities such as
newly accessible areas peripheral to the CBD.
As the metro systems are built out, they are
seeing development of Grade A quality buildings.
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China investment market outlook 9
Others are looking at ways to add value to existing
buildings either through capital improvements to
upgrade well located Grade A and B buildings or
by greening existing Grade A buildings.
In Tier II cities, where whole new CBDs are under
development, we have seen developers turning
to the strata title market in the face of relatively
thin leasing demand. In some cities, investors
with a long investment horizon, such as insurance
companies, may be able to take advantage of
relatively low capital values to buy into
promising markets.
Retail Chinas consumption story
Similarly, on the retail side, terric market
fundamentals have attracted investor interest.
One important distinction, however, is that unlike
the ofce sector, where investors are primarily
interested in the Tier I markets, in the retail sector,
investors have shown interest in well located
assets anywhere in China. This can be attributed
to a number of factors, an important one being
the Central Governments policies to increase
consumption across the entire economy, as
well as steadily rising urban incomes across the
country (Figure 7). In short, Chinas consumption
story is a highly compelling one
and real estate fund managers
and their investors are eager to
be involved.
The retail sector also has a lot of supply
in the pipeline, similar to the ofce sector,
but success in the retail sector is much more
dependent upon successful asset management.
Shopping centres are living assets, needing
to adapt and evolve as market conditions
and consumer tastes change. We believe the
opportunity remains for experienced managersof retail assets to capture outsized market share
even in the face of the coming supply. This is
especially the case for those who have strong
relationships with domestic and international
mass-market brands.
Residential tighter lending environmentwill create opportunities
Much attention has been focused on the Central
Governments demand suppression policies and
their efforts to restrict price appreciation in the
residential market. From an investor perspective
the interesting part actually lies elsewhere. In July
2010, Fitch Ratings released a blockbuster report
on off balance sheet lending by Chinas banks5.
5. Fitch Ratings, Chinese Banks Informal Securitization Increasingly Distorting Credit Data, by Charlene Chu, 14 July 2010
Chinas urban income and consumption growth
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
PerCapita(RMB)
Growth(y-o-ychamge)
Urban Disposable Income Urban Consumption Expenditure
Consumption Growth
Income Growth
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: CEIC, China National Statistics Bureau, Jones Lang LaSalle analysis
Figure 7. Rapid income growth fuels consumption
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10 Advance
It indicated that in spite of the reduction in headline
lending quota set by the CBRC for 2010, the rapid
increase in these informal securitisations more than
offset the reduction in reported lending. With banks
now required to bring all off balance sheet lending
back onto their balance sheets by the end of 2011,
the reduction in onshore liquidity that was meant to
begin in 2010 will now surely happen in 2011.
This comes at a time when residential developers
are in the midst of a very capital intensive part of
the development cycle, having purchased ever-
increasing amounts of land in 2009 and 2010 atever-increasing prices. Combined with government
policies to encourage them to start construction
more quickly, build faster and complete projects
sooner, the effects of the reduction in liquidity could
be dramatic. For over a year, developers have been
required to put down larger deposits after prevailing
in land auctions. In some cities development loans
and proceeds from presales must be deposited into
escrow accounts that can only be used to complete
construction of that specic project. The prots are
released to them only when the project is nished.
By the end of 2011, we expect residential
developers will be launching new projects
positioned for buyers at lower income levels as
policy headwinds remain strong in the upper
end of the market. There is strong potential for
transaction volumes to increase signicantly for
developers that follow this strategy because the
depth of demand among owner occupiers further
down the income scale is enormous. However,
because of the increase in land prices over the
last two years, margins will certainly be squeezed
and ultimately distress will become more readily
apparent among over-geared developers. We see
opportunities for investors in this scenario. Firstly,
there is an opening for equity joint ventures in some
of these distressed situations and opportunities
for developers who are able to take over entire
projects from weaker players. Secondly, we expect
an increased willingness on the part of residential
developers to consider more reasonable pricing
on the sale of some of their commercial, income-
producing assets from their existing portfolios and
future pipelines.
Ultimately, less domestic liquidity means a returnof cash as a competitive advantage in China and
an even more active investment market across all
asset classes in 2011 and beyond.
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Looking ahead
There are clearly opportunities for investors given the strong market fundamentals. Foreign investors will aggressively chase the momentum
in Chinas retail and ofce property markets, even as the global economic environment remains challenging. As the torrent of onshore
liquidity returns to pre-crisis levels and signs of distress emerge, their capital will once again be relevant. Nonetheless, China remains a very
challenging business and regulatory environment to operate in.
We expect domestic and foreign real estate investment managers to be creative in their approach to Chinas unique status and brand of
state-enabled development going forward. Ofcial encouragement for developing social housing and for foreign investment in hospitals,
along with growing market-based demand for elderly care facilities, will add to these opportunities for institutional investors. Rapid
government driven progress in RMB funds and REITs, along with insurance company investments will bring these new sectors to the fore.
As insurance companies ramp up their operations, their presence will be increasingly felt in the market. Dont be surprised if the government
forces them back to the sidelines of the commercial markets if asset prices rise too quickly. Lower investment yields, along with limitedinvestment grade stock, will lead to new opportunities for raising capital from domestic investors destined for overseas real estate markets.
Chinas real estate investment market promises to be as dynamic as ever in the years ahead.
Please look out for our next report on Guangzhous real estate investment market later this year. In future reports we will update you on the
latest developments in the market whos buying what and where and key issues like the impact of pilot property taxes.
David Hand MRICS
Head of Investment - China
david.hand@ap.jll.com
+86 10 5922 1101
An International Director, David is one of the most experienced international commercial property
professionals in China. Based in Beijing since 2001, as the former managing director of the Beijingbusiness, he led a team of 200 professionals and was directly involved in the investment, property
& shopping centre management, leasing, research and consultancy businesses. A frequent media
commentator, David is also an Executive Education Instructor on Chinese real estate investment at
Harvard University (GSD).
Michael KlibanerHead of Research - China
michael.klibaner@ap.jll.com
+86 21 6133 5707
A National Director, Michael works with a team of 35 researchers in Jones Lang LaSalles nine ofces
in China covering 20 Tier I, II, and III markets across the ofce, retail, residential and industrial sectors.
With 17 years of business experience, Michael has an extensive background in nance and consulting.
Michael is the Chairman of AmCham Shanghais Real Estate Committee and a frequent commentator on
Chinas property markets.
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www.joneslanglasalle.com.cn
COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE 2011 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be published without prior written permission from Jones Lang LaSalle. The information in this
publication should be regarded solely as a general guide. Whilst care has been taken in its preparation no representation is made or responsibility accepted for the accuracy of the whole or any part.
We stress that forecasting is a problematical exercise which a t best should be regarded as an indicative assessment of possibilities rather than absolute certainties. The process of making forward
projections involves assumptions regarding numerous variables which are acutely sensitive to changing conditions, variations in any one of which may signicantly affect the outcome, and we draw your
attention to this factor.
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