Do We Need Do We Need A New Transportation A New Transportation

Solution?Solution?

Andres Zellweger

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

25 February, 2000

The Scene in 2020The Scene in 2020

Our society is changingPersonal time is becoming more valuablePeople are moving away from urban centers

E-Commerce will predominateNo indication that travel demand

will not grow as predicted

PEERING INTO THE NEW PEERING INTO THE NEW MILLENIUMMILLENIUM

"What does the 21st century traveler really want from the aerospace industry? An integrated, hassle free, personal mobility solution"

James Womack, MIT

David Fitzpatrick, Deloitte & Touche

(Aviation Week, 1/1/00, p 52)

The 2020 SystemThe 2020 System

Should provide door to door transportation

At a reasonable cost

With minimal travel timesMust be an inter-modal system

An AssessmentAn Assessment

Today’s aviation and highway systems, with projected changes, are inadequate to meet door to door needs of 2020

GRIDLOCK and HUBLOCK

Will result in significant increases in travel time

Inter-modal investment is lacking

AlternativesAlternativesfor Achieving the Neededfor Achieving the Needed

Flexibility and SpeedFlexibility and Speed

More commercial air capacity?“Bullet Trains”?Mag Lev trains?Personal Rapid Transit systems?More roads?

SATS Personal Use ConceptSATS Personal Use Concept

First Look Accessibility Study ResultsFirst Look Accessibility Study Results The 20 FL Airports that Provide 100% of Commercial

Air-Carrier Service are Located Within a 30-Minute Ground Access Time to Less than 70% of the State’s Population

Six Regions Have been Identified as “Under Served” which Include about 20% of the Population.

Centrally Placing SATS Airports in these Regions would extend Air Travel Service to nearly 90% of Floridians.

Several Non-Commercial Carrier Airports in these Regions already have much of the SATS-Desired Infrastructure

ConclusionConclusion

Increased investment in current NAS is essential to meet needs of next decade

Investments must start to provide flexibility and capacity for long term demand

A Parting ThoughtA Parting Thought

(Jack Olcott, NBAA at the 1999 Annual TRB Meeting)

The wars of the 21st century -Will not be military - They will be economic

A strong transportation infrastructure is essential for a sound economy!

BackupsBackups

First Look Study ResultsFirst Look Study Results

User Delays: Random and Minor; No Significant Increase in Delays at Orlando Executive Airport Due to SATS

ATC Capacity: Only Minor-Moderate Impacts in St. John’s Arrival Sector that Serves MCO, and in the North Satellite Departure Sector - Only Under Max SATS Loading (20% of Total Traffic)

ATC Workload: With the Exception of the St. John’s Sector, There is Little Increase in the Average or Maximum Number of Conflicts

SATS AccessibilitySATS Accessibility

SATS Partitions

• Regional Benefits/Accessibility Improvements

• Non-Hub Emplanement Level

• Proximity to Ground Transportation

• Lighted, Paved, 3500 Ft. Runway

• EGPS, AWOS/ASOS

• Amenable Politics

30-Minute Iso-Access 30-Minute Iso-Access ContoursContours

• Via POV or Public Transportation

• Primary & Secondary Roads

First Look Study ResultsFirst Look Study Results

However:– Proximity to a Commercial Carrier Airport is Not

Synonymous with Service Adequacy– Many of the Floridians Wishing to Travel Efficiently

Live Near one of the Four Major Airports and Routinely Suffer Delays and Congestion

– Lack of Service Does Not Necessarily Equate to Unsatisfied Demand

– Some Municipalities Oppose Increased Aviation Operations

– So, Additional Study Must be Accomplished to Identify Viable Florida SATS Airport Candidates

SATS Functional RequirementsSATS Functional Requirements

ATC/ATM

Communications

Navigation

Surveillance

Weather

Landing Facilities

• Self-separation capability onboard the aircraft results from exchange of aircraft position and flight plan information along preferred flight paths.

• Voice will continue and supplement datalink. Communications will be primarily digital to the surface.

• Near all-weather precise guidance to any runway end for any landing facility.

• Situational awareness of all aircraft, landing facility surface movement, and weather in all phases of flight

• Datalink display of real-time weather information and forecasts.

• Integrated network of landing facilities.• Exchange local aviation and commercial info.• Create social and economic drivers for growth.

SATS Functions Areas End-State Performance

Executive Travel ScenarioExecutive Travel ScenarioFractional OwnershipFractional Ownership

SATS Executive Travel

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Auto SATS Air Carrier

To

tal A

nn

ua

l Tra

ve

l (h

ou

rs)

Saving of 456 hours over Air

Carrier

MLBTLH

MOB

BFM

ATL DNLAGS

SATS

Air Carrier

Two SATS trips per month.MLB to TLH to BFM to DNL to MLB.Saves 15.5 hours over Air Carrier.Air Carrier must connect in ATL for each leg, and connects only to MOB & AGS.

Scenario AssumptionsScenario Assumptions

SATS Aircraft– 700 nm range (805.57 statute miles) – 250 kts (287.69 statute miles/hour)– 150 kts in terminal area– 30 minutes from home/office to SATS airport– 30 minutes for enplanement and takeoff– 15 minutes to deplane and leave airport– Direct Org/Dest flight segments derived from

www.landings.com– Transit time and speed includes all travel modes

and connections

Automobile– 25 mph in city– 30 mph residential– 50 mph rural highway– 60 mph interstate highway– 15 minute break for fuel after 3 hours driving– 1 hour meal break– Auto route profile using www.mapquest.com– Transit time and speed includes fuel, meals

and overnight

Scenario Assumptions Scenario Assumptions (continued)(continued)

Commercial Air Carrier– 45 minute drive to/from airport– 30 minutes from long-term parking to gate– 45 minutes from gate to aircraft boarding– 45 minutes from gate arrival to long-term parking– 30 minutes to/from gate for rental car check-in/ drop-off

45 minutes if rental agency is off-airport

– OAG schedule for flight segments and distances Flight speeds were adjusted to fit time schedules

– Transit times and speeds include all travel modes, connections, and overnight stays

Scenario Assumptions Scenario Assumptions (continued)(continued)

SATS Architecture OverviewSATS Architecture Overview

TISFISCIS

FIS

FIS

TIS CISFIS

ePIREPS

SATS-Capable Aircraft

AGATE GAP

Navigation

WAAS LAAS DGPS

Surveillance

ADS-B Avionics

SATS Aircraft

Communication

NAS Wide Data LinkNEXCOM

TIS/FIS/CIS

DIF

TIS

SATS Aircraft

AFSSOASIS

ePIREPS

ATC/ATM

Surveillance

ADS-BGround Station

IntegratedSATS Landing

Facilities

TISFISCIS

IntermodalConnectivity

Business Enterprises

FBOsHotels

RentalsRestaurants

CIS

Weather

WARPITWS AWIN

ePIREPS

CIS

DIF

D R A F TJohn McKinley, SAIC