Do We Need A New Transportation Solution?
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Transcript of Do We Need A New Transportation Solution?
Do We Need Do We Need A New Transportation A New Transportation
Solution?Solution?
Andres Zellweger
Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
25 February, 2000
The Scene in 2020The Scene in 2020
Our society is changingPersonal time is becoming more valuablePeople are moving away from urban centers
E-Commerce will predominateNo indication that travel demand
will not grow as predicted
PEERING INTO THE NEW PEERING INTO THE NEW MILLENIUMMILLENIUM
"What does the 21st century traveler really want from the aerospace industry? An integrated, hassle free, personal mobility solution"
James Womack, MIT
David Fitzpatrick, Deloitte & Touche
(Aviation Week, 1/1/00, p 52)
The 2020 SystemThe 2020 System
Should provide door to door transportation
At a reasonable cost
With minimal travel timesMust be an inter-modal system
An AssessmentAn Assessment
Today’s aviation and highway systems, with projected changes, are inadequate to meet door to door needs of 2020
GRIDLOCK and HUBLOCK
Will result in significant increases in travel time
Inter-modal investment is lacking
AlternativesAlternativesfor Achieving the Neededfor Achieving the Needed
Flexibility and SpeedFlexibility and Speed
More commercial air capacity?“Bullet Trains”?Mag Lev trains?Personal Rapid Transit systems?More roads?
SATS Personal Use ConceptSATS Personal Use Concept
First Look Accessibility Study ResultsFirst Look Accessibility Study Results The 20 FL Airports that Provide 100% of Commercial
Air-Carrier Service are Located Within a 30-Minute Ground Access Time to Less than 70% of the State’s Population
Six Regions Have been Identified as “Under Served” which Include about 20% of the Population.
Centrally Placing SATS Airports in these Regions would extend Air Travel Service to nearly 90% of Floridians.
Several Non-Commercial Carrier Airports in these Regions already have much of the SATS-Desired Infrastructure
ConclusionConclusion
Increased investment in current NAS is essential to meet needs of next decade
Investments must start to provide flexibility and capacity for long term demand
A Parting ThoughtA Parting Thought
(Jack Olcott, NBAA at the 1999 Annual TRB Meeting)
The wars of the 21st century -Will not be military - They will be economic
A strong transportation infrastructure is essential for a sound economy!
BackupsBackups
First Look Study ResultsFirst Look Study Results
User Delays: Random and Minor; No Significant Increase in Delays at Orlando Executive Airport Due to SATS
ATC Capacity: Only Minor-Moderate Impacts in St. John’s Arrival Sector that Serves MCO, and in the North Satellite Departure Sector - Only Under Max SATS Loading (20% of Total Traffic)
ATC Workload: With the Exception of the St. John’s Sector, There is Little Increase in the Average or Maximum Number of Conflicts
SATS AccessibilitySATS Accessibility
SATS Partitions
• Regional Benefits/Accessibility Improvements
• Non-Hub Emplanement Level
• Proximity to Ground Transportation
• Lighted, Paved, 3500 Ft. Runway
• EGPS, AWOS/ASOS
• Amenable Politics
30-Minute Iso-Access 30-Minute Iso-Access ContoursContours
• Via POV or Public Transportation
• Primary & Secondary Roads
First Look Study ResultsFirst Look Study Results
However:– Proximity to a Commercial Carrier Airport is Not
Synonymous with Service Adequacy– Many of the Floridians Wishing to Travel Efficiently
Live Near one of the Four Major Airports and Routinely Suffer Delays and Congestion
– Lack of Service Does Not Necessarily Equate to Unsatisfied Demand
– Some Municipalities Oppose Increased Aviation Operations
– So, Additional Study Must be Accomplished to Identify Viable Florida SATS Airport Candidates
SATS Functional RequirementsSATS Functional Requirements
ATC/ATM
Communications
Navigation
Surveillance
Weather
Landing Facilities
• Self-separation capability onboard the aircraft results from exchange of aircraft position and flight plan information along preferred flight paths.
• Voice will continue and supplement datalink. Communications will be primarily digital to the surface.
• Near all-weather precise guidance to any runway end for any landing facility.
• Situational awareness of all aircraft, landing facility surface movement, and weather in all phases of flight
• Datalink display of real-time weather information and forecasts.
• Integrated network of landing facilities.• Exchange local aviation and commercial info.• Create social and economic drivers for growth.
SATS Functions Areas End-State Performance
Executive Travel ScenarioExecutive Travel ScenarioFractional OwnershipFractional Ownership
SATS Executive Travel
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100
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Auto SATS Air Carrier
To
tal A
nn
ua
l Tra
ve
l (h
ou
rs)
Saving of 456 hours over Air
Carrier
MLBTLH
MOB
BFM
ATL DNLAGS
SATS
Air Carrier
Two SATS trips per month.MLB to TLH to BFM to DNL to MLB.Saves 15.5 hours over Air Carrier.Air Carrier must connect in ATL for each leg, and connects only to MOB & AGS.
Scenario AssumptionsScenario Assumptions
SATS Aircraft– 700 nm range (805.57 statute miles) – 250 kts (287.69 statute miles/hour)– 150 kts in terminal area– 30 minutes from home/office to SATS airport– 30 minutes for enplanement and takeoff– 15 minutes to deplane and leave airport– Direct Org/Dest flight segments derived from
www.landings.com– Transit time and speed includes all travel modes
and connections
Automobile– 25 mph in city– 30 mph residential– 50 mph rural highway– 60 mph interstate highway– 15 minute break for fuel after 3 hours driving– 1 hour meal break– Auto route profile using www.mapquest.com– Transit time and speed includes fuel, meals
and overnight
Scenario Assumptions Scenario Assumptions (continued)(continued)
Commercial Air Carrier– 45 minute drive to/from airport– 30 minutes from long-term parking to gate– 45 minutes from gate to aircraft boarding– 45 minutes from gate arrival to long-term parking– 30 minutes to/from gate for rental car check-in/ drop-off
45 minutes if rental agency is off-airport
– OAG schedule for flight segments and distances Flight speeds were adjusted to fit time schedules
– Transit times and speeds include all travel modes, connections, and overnight stays
Scenario Assumptions Scenario Assumptions (continued)(continued)
SATS Architecture OverviewSATS Architecture Overview
TISFISCIS
FIS
FIS
TIS CISFIS
ePIREPS
SATS-Capable Aircraft
AGATE GAP
Navigation
WAAS LAAS DGPS
Surveillance
ADS-B Avionics
SATS Aircraft
Communication
NAS Wide Data LinkNEXCOM
TIS/FIS/CIS
DIF
TIS
SATS Aircraft
AFSSOASIS
ePIREPS
ATC/ATM
Surveillance
ADS-BGround Station
IntegratedSATS Landing
Facilities
TISFISCIS
IntermodalConnectivity
Business Enterprises
FBOsHotels
RentalsRestaurants
CIS
Weather
WARPITWS AWIN
ePIREPS
CIS
DIF
D R A F TJohn McKinley, SAIC