Orange County

December 15, 2009

Development Activity Review

Board of County Commissioners

• Development Activity

• Residential Sales

• Foreclosures

• Summary

Presentation Outline

• Development Activity

• Residential Sales

• Foreclosures

• Summary

Presentation Outline

• Development Review

• Residential Permitting

• Commercial Permitting

Development Activity

• Development Review

• Residential Permitting

• Commercial Permitting

Development Activity

• Review Activity Levels Have Fallen

Zoning Cases

Board of Zoning Adjustment

Concurrency Applications

Environmental Permits

Development Review Committee

Platting

Development Review

• Platting Remains Low

Average 300 Lots per Month

Peak of 1,557 in December 2003

One Lot or Less – 9 Months in 2008 & 2009

150 Lots Approved Last Month

1,248 Lots in Progress

Development Review

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Development Review 1999-09

Platted Lots

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Development Review 1999-09

Platted Lots

Monthly Average of 300

• Development Review

• Residential Permitting

• Commercial Permitting

Development Activity

Residential Permitting 50 Years

Nationwide Residential Building Permits

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

• Single Family Residential Permits Are Down Significantly

Average 350 Permits per Month

Peak of 949 in June 2004

Low of 36 in November 2008

46 Permits Issued Last Month

Residential Permitting

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Residential Permitting 1999-09

Single Family Residential Building Permits

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Residential Permitting 1999-09

Single Family Residential Building Permits

Monthly Average of 350

Residential Permitting 2009

Single Family Residential Building Permits

• Multi-Family Residential Permits show Recent Improvement

Average 50 Permits per Month

Peak of 351 in November 2005

April 2009 had 0 Permits

4 Permits Issued Last Month

Residential Permitting

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Residential Permitting 1999-09

Multi-Family Residential Building Permits

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Residential Permitting 1999-09

Multi-Family Residential Building Permits

Monthly Average

of 50

Residential Permitting 2009

Multi-Family Residential Building Permits

• Development Review

• Residential Permitting

• Commercial Permitting

Development Activity

• Activity Level is Falling

Average 125 Permits per Month

Peak of 359 in June 2005

Low of 53 Permits Last Month

Commercial Permitting

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Commercial Permitting 1999-09

Commercial Building Permits

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Commercial Permitting 1999-09

Commercial Building Permits

Monthly Average of 125

Commercial Permitting 2009

Commercial Building Permits

• Valuation Amounts Below Average

Average $55M per Month

Peak of $370M in April 2007

Low of $10M in August 2009

$14.6M in Valuation Last Month

Commercial Permitting

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

$400,000,000

Commercial Permitting 1999-09

Commercial Permit Valuation

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

$400,000,000

Commercial Permitting 1999-09

Commercial Permit Valuation

Monthly Average of $55M

• Development Activity

• Residential Sales

• Foreclosures

• Summary

Presentation Outline

• County Development Activity Driven by Demand for Housing

New & Existing Homes

Commercial Activity

Residential Sales

• Residential Unit Sales Appear to be Recovering

• Majority of Sales are Distressed and Low Value Properties

Residential Sales

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Unit Sales Volume

Residential Sales 2009

OC MLS Unit Sales Volume by Zip Code

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Unit Sales Price >$200k

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Unit Sales Price $100k - $199k

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Unit Sales Price <$100k

Residential Sales 2009

Average Unit Sales Price by Zip Code

• Average Sales Price Decreases to 2001 Level

• Falling Prices Improves Sales Volume

• Inventory of Units Continues to Fall

Residential Sales

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Average Sales Price

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Sales Volume Average Price

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Average Sales Price & Unit Sales

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Existing Home Inventory

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000 Average Sales Price Existing Inventory

Residential Sales 1999-09

OC MLS Average Sales Price & Existing Inventory

• Condo Sales are Above Average

• New Conventional Loans are Down Significantly

• 40% of Sales are All Cash

• FHA Loans have Returned

Residential Sales

Residential Sales 1999-09

Regional MLS Unit Sales by Housing Type

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Single Family Condo Townhome

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

New Conv All Cash FHA

Residential Sales 1999-09

Regional MLS Unit Sales by Financing Type

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

New Conv All Cash FHA

Residential Sales 1999-09

Regional MLS Unit Sales by Financing Type

Residential Sales – 3 Years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% New Conventional All Cash FHA

• Development Activity

• Residential Sales

• Foreclosures

• Summary

Presentation Outline

• Foreclosures Filings Appear to have Peaked

• Increasing Sales Volume will help Decrease Foreclosure Filings

• Bank Owned & Distressed Property Sales are Up

Foreclosures

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Foreclosures 2002-09

Orange County Foreclosure Filings

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Foreclosure Filings Sales Volume

Foreclosures 2002-09

Foreclosure Filings & Sales Volume

Foreclosures 2002-09

Foreclosure Filings & Sales Price

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Foreclosure Filings Average Sales Price

2009 Orange County MLS Sales

• Total Orange County Sales – 13,009

Bank Owned Sales – 47%

Distressed Sales – 10%

Foreclosures

Foreclosures 2009

Bank Owned Unit Sales by Zip Code

Foreclosures 2009

Distressed Unit Sales by Zip Code

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Foreclosures 2002-09

Orange County Unemployment Rate

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Foreclosure Filings Unemployment Rate

Foreclosures 2002-09

Foreclosure Filings & Unemployment Rate

• Development Activity

• Residential Sales

• Foreclosures

• Summary

Presentation Outline

Development Review

Residential Permits

Commercial Permits

Existing Home Sales Price

Existing Home Sales

Residential Inventory

Foreclosure Filings

Summary

Orange County

December 15, 2009

Development Activity Review

Board of County Commissioners