Development Activity 12-15-09
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Transcript of Development Activity 12-15-09
Orange County
December 15, 2009
Development Activity Review
Board of County Commissioners
• Development Activity
• Residential Sales
• Foreclosures
• Summary
Presentation Outline
• Development Activity
• Residential Sales
• Foreclosures
• Summary
Presentation Outline
• Development Review
• Residential Permitting
• Commercial Permitting
Development Activity
• Development Review
• Residential Permitting
• Commercial Permitting
Development Activity
• Review Activity Levels Have Fallen
Zoning Cases
Board of Zoning Adjustment
Concurrency Applications
Environmental Permits
Development Review Committee
Platting
Development Review
• Platting Remains Low
Average 300 Lots per Month
Peak of 1,557 in December 2003
One Lot or Less – 9 Months in 2008 & 2009
150 Lots Approved Last Month
1,248 Lots in Progress
Development Review
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Development Review 1999-09
Platted Lots
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Development Review 1999-09
Platted Lots
Monthly Average of 300
• Development Review
• Residential Permitting
• Commercial Permitting
Development Activity
Residential Permitting 50 Years
Nationwide Residential Building Permits
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
• Single Family Residential Permits Are Down Significantly
Average 350 Permits per Month
Peak of 949 in June 2004
Low of 36 in November 2008
46 Permits Issued Last Month
Residential Permitting
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Residential Permitting 1999-09
Single Family Residential Building Permits
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Residential Permitting 1999-09
Single Family Residential Building Permits
Monthly Average of 350
Residential Permitting 2009
Single Family Residential Building Permits
• Multi-Family Residential Permits show Recent Improvement
Average 50 Permits per Month
Peak of 351 in November 2005
April 2009 had 0 Permits
4 Permits Issued Last Month
Residential Permitting
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Residential Permitting 1999-09
Multi-Family Residential Building Permits
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Residential Permitting 1999-09
Multi-Family Residential Building Permits
Monthly Average
of 50
Residential Permitting 2009
Multi-Family Residential Building Permits
• Development Review
• Residential Permitting
• Commercial Permitting
Development Activity
• Activity Level is Falling
Average 125 Permits per Month
Peak of 359 in June 2005
Low of 53 Permits Last Month
Commercial Permitting
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Commercial Permitting 1999-09
Commercial Building Permits
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Commercial Permitting 1999-09
Commercial Building Permits
Monthly Average of 125
Commercial Permitting 2009
Commercial Building Permits
• Valuation Amounts Below Average
Average $55M per Month
Peak of $370M in April 2007
Low of $10M in August 2009
$14.6M in Valuation Last Month
Commercial Permitting
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
Commercial Permitting 1999-09
Commercial Permit Valuation
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
Commercial Permitting 1999-09
Commercial Permit Valuation
Monthly Average of $55M
• Development Activity
• Residential Sales
• Foreclosures
• Summary
Presentation Outline
• County Development Activity Driven by Demand for Housing
New & Existing Homes
Commercial Activity
Residential Sales
• Residential Unit Sales Appear to be Recovering
• Majority of Sales are Distressed and Low Value Properties
Residential Sales
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Unit Sales Volume
Residential Sales 2009
OC MLS Unit Sales Volume by Zip Code
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Unit Sales Price >$200k
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Unit Sales Price $100k - $199k
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Unit Sales Price <$100k
Residential Sales 2009
Average Unit Sales Price by Zip Code
• Average Sales Price Decreases to 2001 Level
• Falling Prices Improves Sales Volume
• Inventory of Units Continues to Fall
Residential Sales
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Average Sales Price
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Sales Volume Average Price
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Average Sales Price & Unit Sales
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Existing Home Inventory
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000 Average Sales Price Existing Inventory
Residential Sales 1999-09
OC MLS Average Sales Price & Existing Inventory
• Condo Sales are Above Average
• New Conventional Loans are Down Significantly
• 40% of Sales are All Cash
• FHA Loans have Returned
Residential Sales
Residential Sales 1999-09
Regional MLS Unit Sales by Housing Type
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Single Family Condo Townhome
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
New Conv All Cash FHA
Residential Sales 1999-09
Regional MLS Unit Sales by Financing Type
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
New Conv All Cash FHA
Residential Sales 1999-09
Regional MLS Unit Sales by Financing Type
Residential Sales – 3 Years
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% New Conventional All Cash FHA
• Development Activity
• Residential Sales
• Foreclosures
• Summary
Presentation Outline
• Foreclosures Filings Appear to have Peaked
• Increasing Sales Volume will help Decrease Foreclosure Filings
• Bank Owned & Distressed Property Sales are Up
Foreclosures
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Foreclosures 2002-09
Orange County Foreclosure Filings
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Foreclosure Filings Sales Volume
Foreclosures 2002-09
Foreclosure Filings & Sales Volume
Foreclosures 2002-09
Foreclosure Filings & Sales Price
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Foreclosure Filings Average Sales Price
2009 Orange County MLS Sales
• Total Orange County Sales – 13,009
Bank Owned Sales – 47%
Distressed Sales – 10%
Foreclosures
Foreclosures 2009
Bank Owned Unit Sales by Zip Code
Foreclosures 2009
Distressed Unit Sales by Zip Code
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Foreclosures 2002-09
Orange County Unemployment Rate
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Foreclosure Filings Unemployment Rate
Foreclosures 2002-09
Foreclosure Filings & Unemployment Rate
• Development Activity
• Residential Sales
• Foreclosures
• Summary
Presentation Outline
Development Review
Residential Permits
Commercial Permits
Existing Home Sales Price
Existing Home Sales
Residential Inventory
Foreclosure Filings
Summary
Orange County
December 15, 2009
Development Activity Review
Board of County Commissioners