Demographic Trends in Northeast Minnesota

Drew DigbyRegional Labor Market Analyst

Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development

Three Big Demographic Trends In Minnesota

• We are increasingly urban• We are aging• We are increasingly diverse

And Northeast Minnesota ….

• We’re already older, but the rate of increase will be lower than the state average.

• Some counties have a lower average age than in 2000

• Likely caused by a dramatic increase in mobility by people of all ages. Young people leaving. Workers higher mobile. Some retirees choosing to leave, others choosing to move in.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau,Population Estimates

Percent Change in Population, 2000-2007

Decline 10% or more

Decline less than 10%

Increase less than U.S. rate (7.2%)

Population Change 2000-2007

Increase 7.2% to 14.4%

Increase more than twice the U.S. rate (14.4%)

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Aging Is The Really Big Trend That Is Driving The National Course

• Societal aging is unique in history—it is happening in the US, Canada, Europe, Japan, China, Korea, & increasing number of countries around the world

• 2008 was the start of what has long been called the “Age of Entitlement”

• This affects the economy, labor force, families, churches, state & local government budget, businesses; virtually every aspect of our society

Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 65 Beginning

2008

2005 ACS

Competition For Future College Students Will Increase

Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007. The 18 year oldpopulation, both Minnesota & nationally are projected to decline starting 2009.

For The First Time In HistoryWe Will Have More 65+ Than School

Age

Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007

Minnesota Will Grow More Diverse; Remain Less Diverse Than The Nation

State Demographer & Census Bureau projections

Minnesota’s Children Are More Diverse Than Older People

2000 Census

Northeast Minnesota

• Big Unknown: How will trend towards diversity affect Northeast Minnesota?

• Some parts have substantial increases in diversity. Others have none or little.

• Where college students go will be critical in diversity mix.

Demography Conclusion

• We are increasingly suburban.• Many rural areas have aged dramatically as younger

people move to opportunities in the big cities, though less so in Northeast Minnesota.

• We age aging—2008 was the beginning of the “Age of Entitlement”

• This aging will affect all aspects of society• We are more diverse and this trend will be

reinforced by slowing labor force growth

For More Information

• www.demography.state.mn.us• www.census.gov • www.demography.state.mn.us/notyet This is something the

state demographer wrote in the mid 1990s in an attempt to illustrate some of the demographic trends. It is a faux newspaper for November 2025, where each story illustrates a demographic trend in Minnesota

• www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi