Major Demographic Changes in Minnesota

Hazel Reinhart

&

Tom Gillaspy

The Rate of Minnesota Population Change Increased in the 90s

14.50%

11.50%

7.10% 7.30%

12.40%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-00

Decade

Per

cent

Cha

nge

We are at the beginning of significant change in Minnesota’s

population Dimensions of this change will affect

Minnesota government budget and programs

Minnesota’s self image

The future shape of Minnesota

Three dimensions of population change

•Aging

•Racial/ethnic diversity

•Geographic distribution of the population

All Else33%

Higher Education11%

K-12 Education32%

Health and Human Services

22%

Family and Early Childhood

2%

2000-01 Biennium--Approximately 2/3rds of the Minnesota State Budget Goes To Expenditures Related

To Age of The Population

Much of Minnesota's state government budget is

directly affected by changes in age of the populationPopulation is aging--the next two decades will seeK-12 enrollments will decline, reflecting lower numbers of births

after 1990. The traditional college age population will increase through this

decade, falling thereafter. Increases in the young old but slower growth in the old old,

implying a shift in the emphasis of health costs. Slower growth in the working age population will further

aggravate the current labor shortage.Maturing of the workforce fueled some of the remarkable growth

in income in the 1990s. This effect will diminish in the future.

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Chi

ldre

n 5

to 1

7School Age Population Is On The Verge Of

Decline

School Age Children Are Increasingly Concentrated in the Twin Cities Metro Area

-1.8%

-11.6%

7.5%

20.8%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Age Group

Per

cent

Cha

nge

1990

-99

11 County TwinCities Metro

Rest of the State

Traditional College Age Will Increase This Decade

300000

350000

400000

450000

500000

550000

600000

1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

65+ 85+

Minnesota's Population 65+ Will rise Even More Rapidly After 2010; The 85+ Population Will See

Moderated Increases Through 2025

Older Workforce Is Growing Rapidly While Younger Workers Are Decreasing

28.3%

-0.1%

-7.2%

5.9%4.1%

32.6%

38.5%

-0.9%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

1980-90 1990-99 1999-10 2010-20

25-4445-64

Dependency Ratio is at an Historically Low Level

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Dep

ende

ncy

Rat

io

Dependency ratio is population under 15 and over 64 divided by population 15-64

Minnesota is Approaching A Peak Number of People In Their Peak

Earning Years

•Peak number of people in peak earning years (40s and early 50s) this decade.

•Contribute to increased income

•Contribute to increased purchasing

Minnesota is Becoming More Diverse

•More diverse but still much less than the nation

•More new immigrants and people of minority races and ethnicity

•Changes are related to strong economic growth and tight labor market

•Presents some challenges to government services, such as languages spoken at school

4.7%

2.6%

6.2%

2.6%

7.9%

2.6%

9.7%

4.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

US Mn

Per

cen

t F

ore

ign

Bo

rn

1970198019901997

Proportion of Foreign born Population In Minnesota Is Beginning To Increase

6.2%

24.3%

8.8%

28.1%

14.8%

37.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Minnesota U.S.

1990 1999 2025

Minnesota Is Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation

Minnesota Projected Population Change 2000-2010

3%

36%31%

17%

57%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

White AfricanAmerican

Asian & PacificIsla

AmericanIndian

Hispanic

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

24.8%

37.9%

5.4%

5.1%

27.7%

20.6%

23.3%

22.2%

15.9%

16.8%

16.5%

17.3%

16.1%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%

Minneapolis

St. Paul

Other large district

State

Worthington

Madelia

Mountain Lake

Butterfield

Lynd

Sleepy Eye

St. James

Pelican Rapids

Willmar

Percent of Students Speaking Language Other Than English At Home 2000

Non-English Speaking Students; While Minneapolis and St. Paul Have The Largest Numbers, Some

Smaller Districts Also Have Substantial Proportions

Minnesota Is Increasingly An Urban State

•Twin Cities suburban area now includes about 45% of the state’s population

•Most of the growth in the state is occurring in the Twin Cities suburban area

•Growth and congestion will continue to be issues

Population by area of the State

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

1990 1999 2010 2020

Minneapolis & St. Paul11 County Metro ringRest of State

Most of Minnesota’s Population Growth Is In The Suburban Ring Around The Twin Cities

-50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000

1990-99

1999-10

2010-20

Change In Population

Minneapolis & St. Paul 11County Metro Ring Rest of State