#DeloittePredicts · 2016-10-13 · TMT Predictions was first published in 2001 Deloitte LLP and...

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September 2016

TMT Predictions was first published in 2001

Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.

2015 Technology Predictions report card

The Internet of Things really is things, not people

Drones: high-profile and niche

3D printing is a revolution: just not the revolution you think

Click and collect booms in Europe

Smartphone batteries: better but not breakthrough

Nanosats take off, but they don’t take over (We were too high!)

The Re-enterprization of IT

Came true, but less than

we predicted. At least so far

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Came true exactly as

much as we predicted

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2015 Media Predictions report card

Short form video: a future, but not the future, of television

The ‘generation that won’t spend’ is spending a lot in media content

Print is alive and well – at least for books

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

620 635 653

2013 2014 2015

US unit sales of print books, 2013–2015 (millions)

Source: Nielsen BookScan (captures 80% of US print book sales)

2015 Telecom Predictions report card

One billion smartphone upgrades

The connectivity chasm deepens: the growing gap in broadband speeds

Contactless mobile payments (finally) gain momentum

Didn’t come true

as we predicted

Legend

Total prediction accuracy

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ANDREESSEN HOROWITZ

Mobile is eating the world BENEDICT EVANS

Daily time spent per media platform (minutes)

Source: David Pakman blog on Medium.com

Laptop and smartphone adoption among 18-24 year olds

Which of the following devices do you own or have ready access to?

Weighted base: Respondents aged 18-24: Australia (265), Canada (253), Finland (120), France (242), Germany (212), Italy (193), Japan (185),

Netherlands (253), Norway (130), Singapore (327), Spain (193), UK (510), US (279)

Source: Deloitte members firms’ Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed countries, May-July 2015

Intent to purchase a laptop and smartphone within the next 12 months

among 18-24 year olds

Which of the following devices are you likely to buy in the next 12 months?

Weighted base: Respondents aged 18-24: Australia (265), Canada (253), Finland (120), France (242), Germany (212), Italy (193), Japan (185),

Netherlands (253), Norway (130), Singapore (327), Spain (193), UK (510), US (279)

Source: Deloitte members firms’ Global Mobile Consumer Survey, developed countries, May-July 2015

Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy survey, US only, 2014

It’s not either/or, it’s BOTH

Quarterly shipments Rolling 4Q total

Global tablet shipments in millions of units

Communications and marketing > It’s not always mobile

Mobile apps: Not for all Millennials

Insight Millennials (at 26%) are far more likely to use a bank’s mobile

application than Generation X (12%) or Boomers (3%). However,

when looking at the preferred way that Millennials want to

transact with their bank, the website plays a more important role.

Interestingly, 30% of Millennials with smartphones don’t use any

banking apps (from their bank, or 3rd-party banking apps). Of

those that don’t use banking apps, 45% said they prefer not to

conduct banking-related activities on their mobile device.

Opportunity One might expect a text heavy generation like Millennials to

exclusively prefer SMS or mobile app notifications for

communications, but that isn’t always the case. Often email

trumps both text and mobile app notifications as the preferred

digital means for push notifications. Banks need a

comprehensive and analytic-based communications

infrastructure to understand each consumer, and deliver the right

messages via the right channels.

Customer channel usage to research and apply for bank products (global)

Source: Capgemini World Retail Banking Report 2015 and CIBC World Markets Inc.

Daily media minutes for US 18-24 year olds, 2009-2016 in Q1

Source: Nielsen Total Audience Report

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Time spent watching video content by device, US, among 14-25 year olds

Base: Respondents aged 14-25 (424 respondents)

Source: Deloitte Digital Democracy Survey US, Ninth edition, November 2014

Of the time you spend watching movies/TV shows/sports/user-generated content,

what percentage do you watch on the following devices?

Traditional television remains resilient, even in the US US TV is approaching a plateau, not a fall; it is eroding, not imploding

US Pay TV subscribers (millions)

100.3 100.4 100.4 100.3 100.1 99.3 98.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E

Pay TV penetration (US only)

Sample Pay TV monthly rates in Brooklyn, 1992-2014

ESPNSubs Monthly Revenues

(millions) Average (billions)

2013 100 5.54$ 6.65$

2016 89.9 7.21$ 7.78$

-10% 30% 17%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US Broadcast Only homes (millions) 2010-2016

Source: Nielsen

2014 2015 2016

US Daily Traditional TV viewing by those 18+ in Q1

Source: Nielsen

Source: Nielsen Three Screen Report Q1 2010, Nielsen Cross Platform Reports Q1 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014,

Nielsen Total Audience Report Q1 2015, and Deloitte Global estimate for Q1 2016

US TV viewing by 18-24 year olds 2010-2016

Daily live + time shifted minutes of TV Annual change - right hand axis

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Global 2016: 71%

Canada 2016: 68%

Weekly use of standard voice calling among smartphone owners (2012-2015)

Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, 2015

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-75

‘Data exclusive’ mobile users, by age group, developed countries, 2015

Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, 2015

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Use Smartphone Function: Daily (Among those who use each Function, n=286 to n=690)

MIL GX BMR

Email 58% 67% 51%

Text 61% 61% 54%

Social Network 56% 54% 38%

Use Messaging App 43% 47% 33%

Play Game 41% 42% 23%

Talk on Phone: Dialing Number 27% 35% 28%

Listen to Music 26% 26% 13%

Take Picture 11% 19% 7%

Talk on Phone: using App

12% 16% 11%

Video Call 13% 8% 2%

Source: Ipsos Reid Custom Deloitte Study (data collected Jan 2016)

Among those who use each Function, sample size varies by Function (Mil. n=100 to n=221 / Gen Xers n=127 to n=297 / Boomers n=54 to n=158)

Q7. How often do you use the following functions on your Smartphone?

Select one per row

SHOWING DAILY

OVERALL Millennials

(19 - 33)

(34 - 50)

Boomers

(51 - 69)

Email 60% 58% 67% 51%

Text 58% 61% 61% 54%

Social Network 52% 56% 54% 38%

Use Messaging App 42% 43% 47% 33%

Play Game 37% 41% 42% 23%

Talk on Phone Dialling Number 30% 27% 35% 28%

Listen to Music 23% 26% 26% 13%

Take Pic 13% 11% 19% 7%

Talk on Phone using App 13% 12% 16% 11%

Video Call (Skype) 9% 13% 8% 2%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Phone Call - Dial Number

Social Network

Phone Call - Using an App

Video call

Preferred Method of Communication on Smartphone

(Among Smartphone Owners/Users n=672) MIL GX BMR

49% 56% 49%

28% 28% 37%

6% 7% 6%

10% 5% 5%

4% 2% 2%

4% 2% 1%

Among those who own/use a Smartphone (Mil. n=67 / Gen Xers n=330 / Boomers n=234)

Q8. What is your preferred method of communicating with your friends and family on your Smartphone? Select

OVERALL Milenials

(19 - 33)

(34 - 50)

Boomers

(51 - 69)

672 67 330 234

Text 51% 49% 56% 49%

Phone Call – Dial

31% 28% 28% 37%

Email 6% 6% 7% 6%

Social Network

6% 10% 5% 5%

Phone Call – App

3% 4% 2% 2%

Video Call

2% 4% 2% 1%

MIL GX BMR

44% 44% 50%

43% 31% 29%

29% 31% 31%

15% 28% 23%

26% 21% 8%

17% 23% 13%

18% 12% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

No urgency

Topic not important enough

Inappropriate location

Avoiding interrupting other person

Can’t multi-task as easily when on the phone

Personally too busy to talk

Avoiding awkwardness of a live convo

Factors Driving Phone Call Avoidance on a Smartphone

(Among Smartphone Owners/Users n=672)

Among those who own/use a Smartphone (Mil. n=67 / Gen Xers n=330 / Boomers n=234)

Q9. Generally, what holds you back from using your Smartphone more often for traditional phone calls? Select all

OVERALL Millennials

(19 - 33)

(34 - 50)

Boomers

(51 - 69)

672 67 330 234

No urgency 46% 44% 44% 50%

Topic not important enough 34% 43% 31% 29%

Inappropriate location 30% 29% 31% 31%

Avoiding interrupting other person 22% 15% 28% 23%

Can’t multi-task as easily when on the phone

19% 26% 21% 8%

Personally too busy to talk 18% 17% 23% 13%

Avoiding awkwardness of a live convo 14% 18% 12% 11%

Other 10% 3% 10% 18%

TMT Predictions tailored events

Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation

for your office/industry.

• Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca

• Follow him on Twitter: @dunstewart

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• Read his blog: dunstewart.wordpress.com

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