TMT Predictions 2017 Think about the future

A braking news story

1Deloitte predicts that cars with automatic emergency braking (AEB) will represent almost 100 percent of all new cars sold in 2022 in the US, marking the biggest auto safety breakthrough since the seatbelt.

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A brake-out innovation… While self-driving cars may still be years away, cars with AEB are a growing part of the market in 2017. The technology uses sensors to automatically brake when a collision is imminent. Where the average driver takes a couple of seconds to react to a surprise obstruction, auto braking takes milliseconds. Velocity is reduced by half, and kinetic energy by even more. Result? Fewer injuries and deaths.

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That doesn’t brake the bank Over 38,000 people are estimated to die in US auto accidents annually. AEB is expected to reduce accident fatalities by over 16%, saving nearly 6,000 lives each year in the US. Global auto deaths are over 1.25 million, and AEB will reduce that toll too, but at a slower pace. While self-driving systems typically cost $25,000 per car, lifesaving AEB technology is currently priced at only $500. And consumers actually prefer it to fully autonomous cars!

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Let your fingers do the talking

2Deloitte predicts more than one billion fingerprint-enabled devices will be on the market in 2017. Most will be used, and over 30 times per day. That’s going to be 10-trillion-plus fingerprints read for the year, but who’s counting?

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Prints charming Have you ever struggled to remember a password? Was it capital or lowercase? A symbol or a number? By 2020, the average user may have over 200 online accounts, and sharing passwords between them is a security hazard. What if you never had to remember another password again?

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A solution is at hand! I mean, at your finger We predict fingerprint readers to be ubiquitous on smartphones and tablets by the end of the decade, and a growing number of applications will adopt fingerprints as an alternative to passwords. Fingerprints are more secure and can’t be hacked or forgotten. They could also offer a more secure alternative to PINs in banking, keys and passes in physical security, and enhance the security of government-issued ID.

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Get lost!

3Deloitte predicts that, within five years, a quarter of all digital navigation will be used indoors, providing directions with accuracy to within a few metres.

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Getting you from here… Have you ever wandered everywhere, searching for something at the mall? Or gotten lost in an airport? We use GPS to get directions every day, but GPS technology doesn’t work indoors. That’s all about to change as satellites, WiFi, and Bluetooth beacons will work with your smartphone to show you where to go, and even which floor you are on.

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To there We expect global investment in what we call “indoor navigation” to reach $1 billion dollars this year, with approximately 50–100 startups working in this sector. This amount will grow, quickly, as outdoor navigation is already a $56-billion industry. Real estate, retail, and telecom all look to be impacted by this new technology.

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Niche appeal

4Deloitte predicts that 2017 sales of tablets will be fewer than 165 million units, down about 10 percent from the 182 million units sold in 2016. Not a precipitous decline, but it does suggest we’ve passed peak demand for these devices.

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What goes up… Introduced in 2010, only seven short years ago, tablet computers shipped more than 200 million units in each of 2013, 2014, and 2015—in some ways riding a crest of dissatisfaction over that time with the relatively small screen size of smartphones and the heavy weight of laptops.

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Must come down As phones got bigger and laptops got lighter, tablets are no longer the hot commodity they once were. In fact, when asked which devices they valued the most, Americans ranked tablets at 29 percent, lower than the levels seen in 2012–2014, and about half or less than the levels seen for smartphones (76 percent), laptops (69 percent), and even desktop computers (57 percent.)

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Rise of the machines

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Rise of the machines Deloitte predicts that over 300 million smartphones, or more than a fifth of units sold in 2017, will have on-board machine-learning capability, allowing them to perform important tasks even when network connectivity is unavailable. This will have massive implications not only for the privacy and security of everyday mobile device users but, more importantly, for disaster relief, eventual Internet of Things (IoT) cybersecurity, and health care.

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While you read this… Some tasks performed by computers are straightforward: a push of a button on a keyboard is translated into binary information that the device is programmed to recognize. But other functions cannot be programmed in the same way. Recognizing a face, for instance—especially whose face it is—in a world of varying light sources, hats, and hair is remarkably challenging. Same goes for voice recognition and language translation.

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Your smartphone is getting smarter With machine learning, devices can get better at performing tasks through exposure to data, rather than explicit programming. Time was, that required massive computational power of the sort only found in clusters of energy-consuming, cloud-based computer servers equipped with specialized processors. Not anymore…your smartphone just grew a brain.

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Can you hear me now?

6Deloitte predicts that significant steps toward fifth generation, or 5G, wireless networks will be launched this year. Soon, you’ll be able to upload those selfies faster than ever!

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Putting the new network… 5G will be a significant improvement to existing 4G networks, but will probably not be launched in its entirety until 2020. However, operators will begin rolling out enhanced 4G networks called LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) and LTE-A Pro, offering faster speeds and a taste of 5G’s potential. Call them 4.5G if you want. Speeds could reach multiple GB/s, meaning you could download the new Star Wars in seconds—even in HD.

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To work A further innovation is that LTE-A networks offer improved support for IoT devices. LTE-A will incorporate a low power network that connects a large number of battery powered devices, even in basements or deep inside buildings where cell reception may not otherwise reach. Finally, texting on the subway!

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Greatly evaluated

7Deloitte predicts that US TV advertising revenue in 2017 will be even with 2016, although up or down a percent or two is possible. Not itself necessarily the stuff of great television drama, but for an industry widely thought to be on the same sharply negative trend as other traditional media, flat is the new up.

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Couch plateau Think about it: people have been predicting the death of US network TV since the early 1970s. More than four decades later, they’re still wrong. Buoyed in part by the summer Olympics and the presidential election, television ad revenues in the US were about $72 billion in 2016, up 3.5 percent over the year before.

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Glad men The fact is, TV ads may be recapturing some of the dollars that had been moving to digital. Why? Video streaming lacks television’s mass appeal, live viewing remains dominant over “time-shifted” DVR viewing, and viewing overall remains robust. Although not growing the way it used to and losing share, traditional TV advertising remains important for advertisers. After all, traditional TV still gets over 1,800 hours per year of adult Americans’ time, and even more for the fast-growing 65+ demographic.

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Fashion plate

8Deloitte predicts the market for vinyl records are likely to enjoy a seventh consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2017, with about 40 million discs sold, generating US$800-$900 million and an average revenue per unit just over US$20.

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Circling the turntable… For many buyers, the record has become a collectible, a proudly physical format and an expression of individuality in a largely digital world. As media consumption becomes increasingly intangible—streaming services usurping digital music downloads; websites and apps replacing print—vinyl is permanent and, for some, worthy of display. Even apparel and food retailers are getting in on the action, selling records and players in their stores.

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Not the drain Vinyl’s peak is past, of course—in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when the record was the predominant way of listening to pre-recorded music, over half a billion records were sold annually in the US alone. In 2017, an estimated 15 million individuals globally may purchase a small number of records at a high unit price relative to most other music formats— significant, but nevertheless niche, and not likely to expand much.

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It came from beyond the web

9Deloitte predicts that Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks will become larger in scale, more frequent, and harder to mitigate, with some attacks reaching a terabit/s on a monthly basis.

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Cybersecurity finds itself… DDoS attacks are an increasingly common method of crashing websites by flooding them with too much traffic from many IP addresses at once. Netflix, PayPal, and the New York Times websites were all crashed by DDoS in 2016. As the scale of attacks has increased, defenses have grown accordingly, but 2017 may mark the year that hackers exploit IoT devices and lead this game of cat and mouse.

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In a state of denial The IoT connects billions of devices—cameras, sensors, routers, and appliances—some with factory-installed passwords. Hackers may be able to access millions of these devices at once and use them in their attacks. The Mirai attack in 2016 made use of connected devices and the hacker posted instructions online, encouraging copycats.

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It’s flextime

10Deloitte predicts that, by the end of 2018, spending on flexible consumption models (FCM), or “IT-as-a-service,” will exceed $500 billion worldwide, up nearly 50 percent over 2016. FCM won’t have become ubiquitous by that time, but it will still be growing rapidly.

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Stretch goals It used to be the norm that enterprises bought, rented, or leased IT and telecom hardware. A company with a thousand office employees had to have at least a thousand computers and a thousand telephone handsets on the premises, plus the software and systems to run them. But with the emergence of FCM, this model is going the way of the dodo.

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Growth spurt For many enterprises, large and small, FCM is appealing because it allows them to avoid significant capital expenditures and provides a predictable expense based on actual use—which is in turn easily scaled up or down based on business needs. And while both the traditional ownership IT model and FCM will continue to coexist for years, there is an ongoing shift toward FCM. At current rates of growth, FCM will likely represent more than half of IT spending by 2021 or 2022.

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