Transcript of Crete, 23 June 2008 Giuseppe GAVIOLI - CNH Tractor Product Agricultural and Construction Equipment...
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- Crete, 23 June 2008 Giuseppe GAVIOLI - CNH Tractor Product
Agricultural and Construction Equipment AgEng2008 International
Conference on Agricultural Engineering AGRICULTURAL MACHINES
EVOLUTION IN A CHANGING WORLD
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- AgEng2008 - AGRICULTURAL MACHINES EVOLUTION IN A CHANGING WORLD
2 INTRODUCTION We are in a changing world. And the changes, even in
far distant areas, are more and more correlated (globalization
effect). So we will focus today mainly on Europe (now extended to
27 member states), but we cannot lose contact with the rest of the
world. What is relevant to observe is that a lot of apparently
independent changes are causing economic, environmental and social
trends with combined relevant effects on the evolution of
agricultural machines.
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3 BASIC STATISTICS Demographics Agricultural labor force Cultivated
land Organic land Farm size evolution Climate change and
precipitations evolution Gross Domestic Product Agriculture value
Commodity prices Agricultural income Bio-fuels Our world is rapidly
changing. The continuous evolution of society, economy, technology
and culture is under our eyes, and if we give a closer look to some
statistic key indicators we can better understand the size and
direction of change.
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4 Statistics: Population Source: Eurostat Europe has 7.5% of the
world population and it is about two times the USA population; but
it is much smaller than both India and China.
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5 Statistics: Demographics The effect of Europe net migration will
no longer outweigh the natural decrease after 2025, when the
population will start to decline gradually. The worldwide
population of the least developed areas will pass from 5,4 billion
to 7,9 billion in 2050 while the developed areas will remain
stabilized around 1,2 billion. They would undergo a decline
normally if one did not take in account the migration of the
developing countries towards the developed countries
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6 Statistics: Demographics Evolution of EU-25 and USA population
1995-2050 While the European population is substantially not
growing, China, India and the USA populations are growing around or
more than 1% per year.
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7 Statistics: Demographics Source: Department of Economic and
Social Affairs (DESA) - 2007 All European countries population
evolution by age groups Europe has grown so far only due to the
addition of new state members (from Europe-12 to Europe-27). The
European lack of population growth is also pictured here where the
main age group trends are shown.
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8 Source: United Nations Statistics: Rural Population The
percentage of rural population is wide ranging and its decreasing
everywere
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- AgEng2008 - AGRICULTURAL MACHINES EVOLUTION IN A CHANGING WORLD
9 Statistics: Agricultural Labor Force Over the period 1995-2000,
the agricultural labor input has declined by 2.0% p.a. in the EU15.
This rate of change has speeded up since 2000 to -2.3% for the
period up to 2005 (EU25: -2.5%) Source: Eurostat
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10 Statistics: Cultivated Land Over of the territory of the
European Union is agricultural (42%) or wooded land Source: United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Source: Eurostat, 2005
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11 Statistics: Organic Land Evolution of the total number of
organic producers and size of total organic area in the EU15,
1998-2002 Source: Eurostat, 2005 The total organic area in the EU15
increased from 2.3 million hectares in 1998 to 4.9 million hectares
in 2002. The organic farming area reached 3.8% of the total
Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA) of the EU15 in 2002, up from 1.8%
in 1998 Worldwide (2006): approx. 31 million of hectares are grown
organically
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12 Statistics: Farm size Number of agricultural holdings by size,
of at least 1 ESU (Economic Size Unit) in 2005 Since 1986, 2 ESU
have been worth ECU 2 400, which is approximately 3 hectares
wheat-equivalent Source: Eurostat source: Eurostat Total number of
Agricultural Holdings (in 1000)
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13 Future impact on summer temperature (C) of climate change
simulated within the scenario GIEC-B2. The small red squares
correspond to a temperature increase between 3 and 4 C Source: CNRS
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - France This climate
simulation model (ARPEGE-Climat) for the years 2070-2100 is not a
real forecast but it shows what could be possible if the radiation
active gases concentration will increase according to the model
hypothesis Statistics: Climate Change
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14 Difference between the winter precipitations in the period
2070-2099 and the ones in the period 1960-1989. Figures a and b are
related to two simulations of the period 2070-2099 versus the
period 1960-1989, made with the model ARPEGE-Climat, different only
by the initial conditions assumptions. The scale is in mm/day. The
trend on both simulations shows an increase in winter rainfalls
over Europe and a decrease over the Mediterranean see and the
Northen Africa. The figures c and d correspond to the figures a and
b and show the same trends for the summer rainfalls. winter
precipitationssummer precipitations Statistics: Precipitations
Evolution Source: CNRS Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
- France
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15 Source: UCAR University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
ESSL Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory Statistics: Climate
Change
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16 Statistics: Gross Domestic Product
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17 Statistics: Agriculture value According to the EAA the output
value at producer prices (the producer prices excludes subsidies
less taxes on the products) of the agricultural industry is 292
billion in 2005 for the EU25
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18 Statistics: Commodity prices All the institutions are predicting
significantly higher prices for the next 10 years than over the
past decade. The projections are subject to many uncertainties:
assumptions about productivity growth, risks of sanitary and
phyto-sanitary crises, climate change, the weather, etc.
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19 Statistics: Europe Agricultural Income EU27 real agricultural
income per worker rose by 5.4% in 2007, after increasing by 3.3% in
2006. This increase was the result of a growth in real agricultural
income (+3.1%) and a reduction in agricultural labour input
(-2.2%).
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20 Statistics: Biofuel The use of vegetable oils as engine fuels
may seem insignificant today but the such oils may become, in the
course of time, as important as petroleum and the coal tar products
of the present time. Rudolph Diesel, 1912 Source: IFP Current
biofuel technologies
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21 Statistics: Biofuel EU Directives targets: - Current: 2% of
biofuel - by 2010: 5.75% of biofuel - by 2015: 8% of biofuel - by
2020 10% of petrol and diesel to be replaced by biofuels (20% of
energy consumption coming from renewable sources) In 2005, 2.6
million hectares in Europe were occupied by energy crops used to
produce biofuels: 2.4 million hectares of crops to produce
biodiesel (95% rape, 5% sunflower) and 0.2 million hectares of
crops to produce bioethanol (49% wheat, 51% sugar beets) In 2005,
Europe consumed about 4.2 Mt of biofuels, equivalent to 1.2% of
road transport fuel consumption. The European Union did not attain
its target biofuel content of 2% - which represents 5.8 Mtoe of
biofuels. By 2010 the target is 16.6 Mtoe, which would require
about 82 Mt of farm biomass and a land area of about 13.8 Mha. To
meet this demand for biofuel, it would be necessary to allocate a
land area for rape alone larger than the cumulated area of all
fallow land in Europe (approx. 8.2 Mha), knowing that not all of
these lands are cultivable.
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22 GENERAL TRENDS Agricultural workforce decrease / average age
increase Farm size increase more complex farm management
Regulations evolution safety / health protection environment /
pollution reduction Productivity / precision increase Bio-fuel /
Bio-mass production increase Water shortages Organic cultivation
expansion From all these data we can observe, inside the change,
some clearly emerging trends:
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23 Population decrease / average age increase Agricultural
workforce decrease (combined effect of European population slight
reduction and decreasing agricultural percentage of the
population). Average age of people working in agricultural areas is
increasing and this drives a strong request for equipment
ergonomic, ease of use, low-effort controls, highly automatic
operation sequences, safe drive. Agricultural income positive
trend, in conditions of workforce decrease, implies a significant
productivity increase.
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24 Farm size increase The progressive increase of farm size implies
a general complexity increase in the farm activity management (more
crops, more machines, more workers). The enterprise risk also
increases and more management skills and tools are required
(business approach, accurate accounting, cultivation and crops
planning, fleet management, maintenance programs, purchase of
services, etc.). The farm economic development implies a continuous
search for productivity and efficiency, which means more machines
and more productive machines.
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25 Productivity / precision increase The demand for higher
productivity on all farm operations is constant: efficient machines
high speed operations bigger machines, higher power automatic
operations ease of use comfort Precision in farm operations is also
an increasing priority, because it usually increases the efficiency
in the use of machines and materials (seeds, water, fertilizers,
etc.).
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26 Bio-fuel / Bio-mass production increase The limited availability
of fossil fuels and the rapidly increasing oil prices are driving a
strong interest on bio-fuels Both in the USA and Europe the
spontaneous extension of bio-fuel crops is supported by dedicated
governments plans. The European target to have by 2020 10% of
petrol and diesel to be replaced by bio-fuels is going in this
direction and probably more specific support to the bio-fuels crops
will come. The fight for low cost bio-fuel will drive even more the
productivity of these cultivations and of the machines used for
that, seen that the available land is limited. Bio-fuel will
require wider fields for energy crops, and farmers will require
bigger machines, with more hp, and bigger implements.
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27 Water shortages The climate changes are difficult to forecast,
but there is a general consensus among scientists that the global
warming is a real process and that significant modifications will
happen in the next decades. The main consequences of global warming
will be a change in precipitation pattern (probably some increase
of precipitations in Northern Europe and a decrease of
precipitations in Central and Southern Europe). Therefore the
availability of water for irrigation will change significantly,
driving changes in the mix of cultivations. The demand for water
will also increase dramatically in the rest of world, with the
increase of irrigated land needs.
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28 Organic cultivation expansion In Europe the land cultivated
organically is roughly doubling every two years, leading to a
significant business impact in the agricultural world. The choice
of non-OGM crops, the very limited use of pesticides and herbicides
and the use of accurate cultivation methods is driving a
significant use of specialised machine work, but with needs of
clean machines, with low emissions and high prevention of land and
crop contamination (e.g. oil drops). This also leads to high value
agricultural production, sustained by prices higher than average
but with demand for high quality process.
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29 Regulations evolution Another important trend in Europe, and in
many other countries, is the rapid evolution of regulations. This
is a direct consequence of the social and political evolution, with
increased sensitivity to population and workers health and safety.
Air pollution and gas and particles emissions are already strictly
regulated and they will be more. EEC legislation on agricultural
machines is quite complex and subject to significant evolution. -
machines need to comply with a long list of EU directives -
homologation is gradually replaced by self-certification
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30 Regulations evolution Typical examples where regulation has a
significant impact on the product design Health and safety Roll
over protection (ROPS), falling objects (FOPS) Hazardous substances
Air purifying devices, to limit operator exposure to hazardous
substances (tractors, sprayers) Protection of passenger Seat belts
anchorages and location and mounting of passenger seat Social or
horizontal Directives, intended to cover the risks in the work
sites. Exposure of workers to the risks arising from physical
agents (vibration) Compliance with these regulations is in charge
of the employer but, obviously, becomes a task for the
manufacturer. Road transport Drive by noise Vehicle width, axle
weights and signalisation Increased road speed, braking performance
EMC (electromagnetic emission) Engine emissions
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31 Engines Emissions Targets Since 2000, there has been a
continuous reduction of particulate and NOx emission levels From
Tier 4 onwards exhaust after-treatment devices will be required
2001 20112014 2006
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32 Engines Emissions targets: Europe and USA
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33 Engines Emissions targets: Other Countries
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34 GENERAL TRENDS DRIVE MACHINE EVOLUTION All the trends we have
seen so far have a powerful drive into the evolution of
agricultural machines. The combined effect of these drivers and the
evolution of technologies will cause rapid changes and new offering
in the machines scenario. The main evolution directions can be
summarized as follows: Bigger equipment / higher power Emissionised
engines / clean machines / use of bio-fuels Safe work environment
Higher speed Serviceability / maintainability improvement Precision
farming / Auto-guidance Automation / CVT transmissions /
electronics / interaction with implements Specialized products /
highly configurable products
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35 Bigger equipment / Higher power Larger fields, less manpower,
demand for higher productivity will continue driving up equipment
size and power. Larger implements will then require more pulling
and controlling power. The endless power up trend will
continue.
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36 Emissionised engines / Clean machines / Use of bio-fuels The
future agricultural machines will be more and more respectful of
the environment. The engine emissions regulations, already quite
severe, will continue to follow the big push for further reduction,
even in the emerging economies like India and China. The global
push to save the environment and respect the nature will drive our
machines to become always greener and cleaner. The use of bio-fuels
and all sort of alternative fuels will increase significantly.
Users and dealers must become familiar with the storage, handling
and use of bio-fuels.
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37 The agricultural machine is often seen as a working environment,
where the operator stays for many hours a day and where he does a
lot of work operations. European and North American legislations
are very focused on guaranteeing safety and healthy working
conditions. This means not only safe equipment and low levels of
noise, vibration, air pollution, but also ease of use and comfort.
Instructions must be clear and exhaustive Controls must be easily
reachable and immediate to understand and use. Signals and warnings
have to cover all the significant potential risks. Safe work
environment
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38 Higher speed Even if the European legislation is a little bit
behind, the tractors speed desired by users is often higher than 40
km/h. 50 Km/h is becoming normal in many countries (recently
including the USA) and 60 km/h or more is the next step. Improved
braking systems and axle suspensions will be more and more required
for a safe high speed drive. And the same applies to trailers and
other towed machines. But speed is also required in many other
machine operations, because it means productivity; so it will
become a constant trend for complete vehicles and for specific
operations.
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39 The social progress, the evolution of comfort perception and
quality of life and the ageing of population will all lead a demand
for better machine serviceability. Customers want to service their
machines less times and in an easy and safe way. They want to
access to all the relevant parts of the equipment without risk or
fatigue and easily check the need for maintenance, in this
supported by clear on-board diagnosis. Maintenance has to be easily
planned and all the service operations must be very simplified.
Serviceability / maintainability improvement
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40 The adoption of precision farming techniques is one of the most
effective ways to increase the yield and productivity of the
agricultural land. Satellite maps, ground and crop analysis, yield
history, culture optimization planning are now possible with the
help of services and equipment available in the market place. And
the use of these tools is proving to be very effective in farm
operations improvement. Auto-guidance systems will more and more
drive with precision the machines on the ideal paths, to minimize
errors and redundancies in field operations, pulling increasingly
sophisticated large implements. Precision farming /
Auto-guidance
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41 Automation / CVT transmissions / electronics / interaction with
implements The demand for productivity, ease of use and field
operations improvements will drive even more the already exploding
rate of electronic and automatic devices on agricultural machines.
Continuous Variable Transmissions will grow at a very high rate and
electronics will become the technology mostly spread around in our
machines. Electronic bus technology, based on existing standards
(CAN-bus, ISO-bus) and on new ones, will transform the machines in
complex integrated systems, more and more intelligent and with
extended capabilities to communicate each other and with implements
and attachments.
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42 Look at this combine Engine, Engine Cooling, Fan, Drum/Rotor,
Sieves, Self-Leveling, Concave, Unloading, chopper Control Header
Height & Float Control Lateral Float Control Reel position
& Speed Control Electrical Shift Transmission 4WD & Diff.
Lock Instrumentation & Man-Machine interface Laser & GPS
Auto Guidance Rear Camera Optimal speed - Cruise Control Precision
Farming Flight Recorder Data Logger Climate Control Automatic Crop
Settings Adaptive Machine Settings
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43 Or at this tractor driveline 50 K.P.H. Dump Solenoid Conn EDC
Valves & Wiring Rockshaft Potentiometer Harness route to EDC
Valves & Rockshaft Pot 4WD Sensor Fuel Tank Level Sensor Branch
Creeper Sensing Switches Secure Harness to Pipework Diff Lock Sense
50 K.P.H. Solenoid Conn Creeper Solenoid (If fitted) Diff Lock
Solenoid 4WD Solenoid PTO Brake Solenoid Trans Oil Press Sensor PTO
Solenoid
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44 And the driver will no more be required The rapid evolution of
the machine capabilities will exceed the human expertise in the
agricultural domain and the machines will act autonomously, fully
robotized. Examples will be: machine to machine optimal settings -
copying coordination of machine / machine activity fleet management
(coordinating the operation between all machines on the field for
time and efficiency gain) Up to the full drone machine, working
without any operator on board and fully capable of self-regulating
and adapting to the field work, taking instructions from remote
computers and operators.
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45 Specialized products / highly configurable products In addition
to the technology evolution, the agricultural machines will also
become more specialized, to optimize their use in the various
conditions and cultivations. This will follow a two-fold path: true
machine specialization, with specific devices and features for a
particular set of operations high configurability of generic
machines, through options and dealer installed accessories, to
adapt them to special work and conditions.
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46 Engineers Are Key Game Players Mechanical and agricultural
engineers are key game players in this evolving natural, social and
technological scenario. Our best efforts should be devoted to: -
understand general change trends and anticipate farmers and social
needs - continue pursuing innovation, not only on technology -
identify new or specific needs of groups of people in agriculture -
identify new product functions - develop new ways to provide
functions. Knowledge, skills and innovation attitude are needed
qualities, to surf the wave of change and shape the future of our
agricultural world.