Coronavirus and the 2020 Campaign

P R E P A R E D B Y :

Neil Newhouse, Partner

May 6, 2020

Three months ago... Seems like a lifetime.

Here’s where we were…

The mood of the country had been edging up.

3Direction of Country Source: RCP Average

Key reminder: “Mood” is a strong predictor of presidential approval.

4Source: POS Poll February 2020

96%

11%4%

88%

Right Direction(45%)

Wrong Track(51%)

Trump Approve Trump Disapprove

+92 -77

Confidence in the economy had skyrocketed.

5

45%

38%

44% 45% 43% 43%40%

53%

62%

57%

68% 66% 66%71%

66% 67% 69%65% 65%

68%

50%

57%52% 50%

53% 53%

46%43%

34%39%

27% 30% 31%27%

32% 31% 29%32% 34%

30%

Good time Bad time

Thinking about the job situation in American today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?

Source: Gallup January 2020

Nearly three-quarters of voters believed “the current economy is working for them.”

6And, generally speaking, would you say that the current economy in the country is working for you and your family?

74%79%

70% 70%

24%19%

28% 27%

Total GOP Defense(42%)

GOP Offense(58%)

Trump Vote/DEM Held(35%)

Yes No

+43+50 +60 +42

After surviving impeachment, the President’s approval was trending up.

7

40% 40% 41%43% 44% 43% 43% 44% 45% 45% 44%

46% 47%

54% 55% 56%53% 53% 54% 53% 53% 53% 53% 54%

51% 50%

Approve Disapprove

Presidential Job Approval Trend Source: NBC/WSJ

49% 49% 46% 47%50% 48% 51% 50%

Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020

Approve Disapprove

+1-2 -5 -3

36%Strg

44%Strg

33%Strg

44%Strg

Gallup NBC/WSJ

Politically, the country was already extraordinarily polarized.

It wasn’t just Trump.

9

President Average DEM Approval Average GOP Approval Approval Gap

Trump 7% 87% 80

Obama 83% 13% 70

G.W. Bush 23% 84% 61

Clinton 82% 27% 55

Reagan 31% 83% 52

Nixon 34% 75% 41

Eisenhower 49% 88% 39

G. H. W. Bush 44% 82% 38

Kennedy 84% 49% 35

Ford 36% 67% 31

L.B. Johnson 70% 40% 30

Carter 57% 30% 27

Source: Gallup

It extended to how people felt about the two parties.

Share of Republicans who say “The Democratic Party

has been taken over by Socialists”

82%

Share of Democrats who say “The Republican Party has been taken

over by Racists”80%

That was BEFORE Coronavirus…

Now…

The bottom has fallen out of the economy.

12Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse? Source: Gallup, April 14, 2020

Getting Better Getting Worse

Getting Worse: 74%

Getting Better: 22%

COVID-19 is the largest and quickest drop in economic confidence we’ve seen over the past two decades.

13How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, (only fair/not so good), or poor? Source: CNBC All-America Economic Survey

% Excellent/Good Prior to Event

% Excellent/Good Soon After Event Drop in Confidence

32%(9/10/01)*

28%(2/06/02)*

-4 pointsin 5 months

26%(12/10/07)**

7%(6/21/08)**

-19 points in 6 months

47%(3/13/20)

22%(4/6/20)**

-25 points in

24 days

*from Gallup

** From CNBC All-America Economic Survey

9/11 Terrorist Attacks

08’ Financial Crash

COVID-19

Fully one-quarter of Americans have been impacted personally by the Coronavirus.

14Have you lost your job or have your wages or salary been cut because of the coronavirus or are you not in the workforce at this time? (IF YES, SPECIFY)

11%15%

41%

31%

Total

Yes- Lost Job Yes - Wages or Salary Cut No Not In Workforce

26%

Trump’s Coronavirus “bump” which pushed his approval above 50% has now receded.

15Approval of President Trump's Handling of the Coronavirus. Source: RealClearPolitics

40% 41%43% 44%

46%

49% 49%51% 50% 49% 48%

46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47%

48% 48%

51% 50%

47%

46% 45% 45% 46%48% 47%

50% 51% 50% 51% 51% 50%

3/7 3/10 3/13 3/16 3/19 3/22 3/25 3/28 3/31 4/3 4/7 4/10 4/13 4/16 4/19 4/21 4/23

Approve Disapprove

Americans believe President Trump was too slow to address the threat to the U.S.

16In handling COVID-19, do you believe that Donald Trump... Source: Economist/YouGov April 26 – 28 Survey of 1500 US Adult citizens

Was Quick To Take Major Steps To Address The Threat To The U.S.

Was Too Slow To Take Major Steps To Address The Threat To The U.S.

2%

36%

53%

10%

TotalActed too quickly Acted at the appropriate timeWaited too long to act Not Sure

Getting Back To “Normal”

Significant majorities of Americans now say COVID-19 is a high threat to the global economy, the U.S., and the stock market.

18What level of threat do you think the coronavirus or COVID-19 poses to each of the following? Sources: USA Today/Ipsos March 10-11, 2020 Survey ; USA Today/Ipsos April 9-10, 2020 Survey

Ranked By % High Threat March 10-11, 2020

April 9-10, 2020

The global economy 47% 76%

The United States 34% 71%

The stock market 47% 68%

You personally 15% 29%

Fewer Americans believe “the worst is yet to come.”

19Sources: NBC/Wall Street Journal March 11-13, 2020 Survey; Kaiser Family Foundation March 25-30, 2020 Survey ; Pew April 7-12, 2020 Survey ; Kaiser Family Foundation

April 15-20, 2020 Survey; Washington Post UMD April 28-May3 Survey

Which of the following best describes your feelings about the coronavirus outbreak in the United States?

March 11-13 March 25-30 April 7-12 April 15-20 April 28-May 3

60% 74% 73% 51% 38%

6% 15% 26% 31% 31%

31% 10% N/A 13% N/A

The worst is yet to come

The Coronavirus is not likely to be that major

of a problem

The worst is behind us

Golf courses, retail and barbers/hair salons receive the most support for opening.

20During the coronavirus outbreak, most states have restricted the types of businesses that can operate. In your opinion, should your state allow [ITEM] to be open now, or not?

Source: Washington Post UMD April 28-May3 Survey

Should allow to be open

Should NOT allow to be open

Golf courses 41% 59%Retail shops such as clothing stores 34% 66%

Barber shops and hair salons 31% 69%Gun stores 29% 70%

Dine-in restaurants 26% 74%Nail salons 25% 74%

Gyms 22% 78%Movie theaters 18% 82%

But, other than going to the grocery store, a majority of Americans aren’t comfortable going out to shop or eat at a restaurant.

21Regardless of current restrictions in your area, would you feel comfortable or uncomfortable [ITEM] at this time? Source: Washington Post UMD April 28-May3 Survey

56%

33%

22%

44%

67%

78%

Going to a grocery store Going to a retail clothing store Eating out in a restaurant

Comfortable Uncomfortable

-34+12 -56

58%

79%

69%

53% 54% 56%60% 61%

39%

18%

28%

44% 44% 42% 40%36%

November1998

September2001

July2002

September2005

August2016

December2016

February2017

April2020

Mainly hopeful and optimistic Mainly worried and pessimistic

71%

28%

Despite everything that has happened over the last two months, Americans are still optimistic/hopeful and believe the outbreak is bringing out the best in the country.

22Source: NBC-WSJ Surveys (1998 from a survey conducted on behalf of the Shell Corporation)

+43

When you think about the future of the country, would you say that you are mainly hopeful and optimistic or mainly worried and pessimistic?

9/11 Attacks

HurricaneKatrina

2016 Presidential Election

Coronavirus Outbreak

In looking at how America is responding to the coronavirus, how well does this

statement describe your view:

This is bringing out the best in America

Well Not Well

23% Very

13% Not At All

Remember that we have an election in six months…

Trump’s job approval has “normalized”

24Trump Job Approval YTDSource: RealClearPolitics

Biden continues to lead Trump on the national trial heats.

25Trump vs. BidenSource: RealClearPolitics

But, Hillary led Trump in the spring of 2016 as well.

26Trump vs. Clinton 2016 Source: RealClearPolitics

May 6, 2016 RCP AverageTrump 41%Clinton 47%

16%

49%

34%

Total

Heard a lotHeard a littleHeard nothing at all

26%

15%

45%

15%

Total

CredibleNOT CredibleHaven’t heard enough to sayNot sure

Biden still has a ways to go with the Tara Reade accusations.

27Source: HuffPost/YouGov April 28-30, 2020 Poll

A former Senate aide named Tara Reade recently alleged that Joe Biden sexually assaulted her in

1993. How much have you heard about this?

Do you think that the allegation of sexual assault against Joe Biden generally is or is not credible?

These six states are the keys to victory in November.

28Trump vs Biden May 4, 2020 Polling AverageSource: RealClearPolitics

RCP Polling Average Trump Biden Net Unemployment Claims as % of

Workforce

Arizona 44% 49% +5 6.7%Florida 43% 47% +4 8.8%

Michigan 41% 47% +6 19.0%North Carolina 47% 47% - 12.7%Pennsylvania 42% 48% +6 16.1%

Wisconsin 44% 47% +3 12.0%

Trump’s targets: non-college whites who didn’t vote in ‘16.

29Source: Doug Sosnik; Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas, 1/20/2020

Eligible Citizens Who Didn’t Vote in 2016Non-College

White College White Non-White

Michigan 1,563,809 412,191 643,000

Pennsylvania 2,289,875 603,125 695,000

Wisconsin 819,356 160,644 306,000

Trump’s $ advantage may be able to help make up his poll deficit.

30Cash On HandSource: Doug Sosnik

Cash-On-Hand Totals

Social Media FollowersBy Candidate Trump Biden

Facebook 27 MM 1.7 MM

Twitter 77 MM 4.9 MM

Instagram 19.3 MM 1.9 MM

YouTube 378k 32k

He also has a huge social media advantage.

31Data as of April 27, 2020

Will Biden’s VP pick even make a difference?

32

Catherine Cortez MastoKamala Harris Elizabeth Warren

Stacey AbramsAmy Klobuchar Gretchen Whitmer

Tammy Duckworth Susan Rice Tammy Baldwin

As for the Senate and the House…

$$$ Makes A Difference

Senate R’s and D’s are in a virtual tie for Super PAC/Party Committee

Cash-on-Hand.

Source: Ballotpedia March 31, 2020

COH: $81,722,000COH: $84,306,000

A state-by-state breakdown reveals a mixed bag.

35Cash-On-Hand By CandidateSource: Open Secrets, 3/31/2020

Alabama

Sessions $749k

Tuberville $459k

Jones $8.3 MM

Arizona

McSally $10.3MM

Kelly $19.7 MM

Colorado

Gardner $9.6 MM

Hickenlooper $4.9 MM

Kansas

Marshall $1.9 M

Kobach $317k

Bollier $2.4 MM

Maine

Collins $5.6 MM

Gideon $4.6 MM

Michigan

James $8.6 MM

Peters $8.7 MM

Montana

Daines $5.6 MM

Bullock $3.2 MM

North Carolina

Tillis $6.5 MM

Cunningham $3 MM

D’s hold a significant cash-on-hand lead in the House races.

Source: Ballotpedia March 31, 2020

COH: $122,643,00COH: $79,253,000

And, according to Politico…

With one exception, 29 of the 30 current Democrat members in

districts won by Trump in 2016 have outraised their opponents.

Key Take-Aways

38

1. Trump loses a referendum.

2. Biden’s basement strategy is working.

3. Trial heats mean little right now.

4. Expect Trump to lose the popular vote… by as much as five million votes.

5. Trump’s campaign is the strongest ever.

6. Does Biden have the staying power when attacked?

7. The trajectory of the economy is key.

8. Six months is a long time.

Neil Newhouse P a r t n e rPhone: (703) 836-7655Email: neil@pos.orgTwitter: @KCkid