Post on 04-Jan-2016
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
Sabato’s Crystal Ball:2012 and Beyond
2014?2016?
2012 Electoral Map
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
Romney: 206Obama: 332
Compared to 2008
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
McCain: 173Obama: 365
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
The Political Map of the US
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
2012 Results by County
Source: The Washington Post
Source: Crystal Ball’s Prof. Alan Abramowitz
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose…”
R²=0.96
30-Sep
3-Oct
6-Oct
9-Oct
12-Oct
15-Oct
18-Oct
21-Oct
24-Oct
27-Oct
30-Oct
2-Nov
5-Nov
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
Presidential Race in the 30 Days Prior to 11/6
ObamaRomney
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
2012: Down to the Wire
Source: Real Clear Politics
Deb
ate
#1
Deb
ate
#2
Deb
ate
#3
2012 Popular Vote
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
Obama (D): 63,915,634 (50.8%)Romney (R): 59,885,921 (47.5%)
Total (as of 11/26): 127,000,000
Source: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
How Did Obama Win?• No renomination
challenge• First term for Dem• Enough economic
growth to generate optimism
• Recovered from 10/3 debate loss
• Great voter contact/GOTV
• Demographics
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
Who Did Obama Win? RomneyObama
Women (55%)
African Americans (93%)
Hispanics (71%) Asians (73%)
Age 18-29 (60%) Age 30-44 (52%)
Men (52%)
Whites (59%)
White Evangelicals (79%)
Age 45-64 (51%)
Age 65+ (56%)
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
How Could Romney Have Won?• Define himself before
Obama did• Use convention better• Stress “Mr. Fixit” on the
economy• Use more $ for GOTV,
less on TV• Move sharply toward
middle in summer• Reverse anti-immigration
stance• Pick a different VP
(Rubio, Portman, etc.)
Voter Turnout
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
Source: Vital Stats on American Politics, 2012
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 201250
52
54
56
58
60
62
6464
6363
5655
54
55
53
58
52
54
60
62
59
Voter Turnout since 1960
Election Year
% o
f Elig
ible
Vot
ers
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
2012 Congress
• House: 234 R, 201 D • Senate: 55 D, 45 R
2012 Senate Changes
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
CTINMAMEMOMTNDNEVAWI
2014 Senate: 6th Year Itch?20 D 13 R
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
2012 Governor Races
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
NEW GovernorsD: WA, MT, NH
R: IN, NC
2014 Governor Races
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
RacesD: 13R: 22
I: 1
State Legislatures
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
Party Changes- To D: CO House, ME House + Sen., MN House + Sen.,
NH House, NY Sen., OR
House-To R: AR House +
Sen., WI Sen.
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
2016 Presidential Election: Only 1439 Days Away
Republicans: A Cast of ThousandsChris ChristieMarco Rubio
Jeb BushRob PortmanBobby Jindal
Paul RyanRand Paul
Susana MartinezScott Walker
Rick SantorumMike HuckabeeBob McDonnell
John ThuneRick Perry
Newt Gingrich
Democrats: Return of the Clintons?
2016 Presidential Election: Only 1439 Days Away
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
Hillary ClintonJoe Biden
Andrew CuomoElizabeth Warren
Mark WarnerBrian Schweitzer
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
GOOD NEWS: Nat’l Neg. Ad Liberation MonthBAD NEWS:• Broadway closing
“Promises, Promises”• End of Pleasure
Season, Start of Pain Season
2012 Election Conclusion
Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012
To read more…
www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball
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