Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 2014? 2016?. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Romney: 206 Romney: 206.

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012

Sabato’s Crystal Ball:2012 and Beyond

2014?2016?

2012 Electoral Map


Romney: 206Obama: 332

Compared to 2008


McCain: 173Obama: 365


The Political Map of the US


2012 Results by County

Source: The Washington Post

Source: Crystal Ball’s Prof. Alan Abramowitz


“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose…”

R²=0.96

30-Sep

3-Oct

6-Oct

9-Oct

12-Oct

15-Oct

18-Oct

21-Oct

24-Oct

27-Oct

30-Oct

2-Nov

5-Nov

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

Presidential Race in the 30 Days Prior to 11/6

ObamaRomney


2012: Down to the Wire

Source: Real Clear Politics

Deb

ate

#1

Deb

ate

#2

Deb

ate

#3

2012 Popular Vote


Obama (D): 63,915,634 (50.8%)Romney (R): 59,885,921 (47.5%)

Total (as of 11/26): 127,000,000

Source: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections


How Did Obama Win?• No renomination

challenge• First term for Dem• Enough economic

growth to generate optimism

• Recovered from 10/3 debate loss

• Great voter contact/GOTV

• Demographics


Who Did Obama Win? RomneyObama

Women (55%)

African Americans (93%)

Hispanics (71%) Asians (73%)

Age 18-29 (60%) Age 30-44 (52%)

Men (52%)

Whites (59%)

White Evangelicals (79%)

Age 45-64 (51%)

Age 65+ (56%)


How Could Romney Have Won?• Define himself before

Obama did• Use convention better• Stress “Mr. Fixit” on the

economy• Use more $ for GOTV,

less on TV• Move sharply toward

middle in summer• Reverse anti-immigration

stance• Pick a different VP

(Rubio, Portman, etc.)

Voter Turnout


Source: Vital Stats on American Politics, 2012

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 201250

52

54

56

58

60

62

6464

6363

5655

54

55

53

58

52

54

60

62

59

Voter Turnout since 1960

Election Year

% o

f Elig

ible

Vot

ers


2012 Congress

• House: 234 R, 201 D • Senate: 55 D, 45 R

2012 Senate Changes


CTINMAMEMOMTNDNEVAWI

2014 Senate: 6th Year Itch?20 D 13 R


2012 Governor Races


NEW GovernorsD: WA, MT, NH

R: IN, NC

2014 Governor Races


RacesD: 13R: 22

I: 1

State Legislatures


Party Changes- To D: CO House, ME House + Sen., MN House + Sen.,

NH House, NY Sen., OR

House-To R: AR House +

Sen., WI Sen.


2016 Presidential Election: Only 1439 Days Away

Republicans: A Cast of ThousandsChris ChristieMarco Rubio

Jeb BushRob PortmanBobby Jindal

Paul RyanRand Paul

Susana MartinezScott Walker

Rick SantorumMike HuckabeeBob McDonnell

John ThuneRick Perry

Newt Gingrich

Democrats: Return of the Clintons?

2016 Presidential Election: Only 1439 Days Away


Hillary ClintonJoe Biden

Andrew CuomoElizabeth Warren

Mark WarnerBrian Schweitzer


GOOD NEWS: Nat’l Neg. Ad Liberation MonthBAD NEWS:• Broadway closing

“Promises, Promises”• End of Pleasure

Season, Start of Pain Season

2012 Election Conclusion


To read more…

www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

[email protected]:

Free!And…

Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 2014? 2016?. Copyright Larry J. Sabato 2012 Romney: 206 Romney: 206.

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