Climate Variability and Climate Change in Pastoral Systems

P. Ericksen, J. de Leeuw, P. Thornton, M. Said, A. Notenbaert, M. Herrero, A. Ayantunde

Climate Variability, Pastoralism and Commodity Chains in Ethiopia and Kenya’ (CHAINS) Project: Research Planning Meeting

ILRI, Addis Ababa, 21-22 June 2011

Pastoralists and climate risk

Oromiya Region, Ethiopia by Andrew Heavens

Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ.

Feinstein Centre, Tufts Univ

Rainfall and NDVI

1980 1990 2000 20100.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

Year

ND

VI

Figure 1: Variation of monthly (blue) and 12 month running average (red) of NDVI for Kajiado district from 1982 to end of 2009. Source: unpublished ILRI analysis.

Vegetation biomass and livestock mortality

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Jan-82

Jan-84

Jan-86

Jan-88

Jan-90

Jan-92

Jan-94

Jan-96

Jan-98

Jan-00

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jan-06

Jan-08

ND

VI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

TLU

per

sq

km

Biomass and NDVI, Kajiado, Kenya

Biomass and NDVI, Laikipia, Kenya

Forage available (kg/ha) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL CRSP LEWS

Biomass (kg/ha)<800800 - 10001000 - 12001200 - 14001400 - 16001600 - 18001800 - 2000>2000

300 0 300 600 Kilometers

N

2006 2007 2008

20102009

Forage deviation (%) for Kenya northern arid lands (2006-2010). Source of information: GL

CRSP LEWS

Forage deviationVery Good Deviation > 30Good 30 >= Deviation >10Normal 10 >= Devition > -10Poor -10 >= Deviation > - 30Scarce -30 >= Deviation > -50Drought -50 >= Deviation > -70Disasater -70 >= Deviation

300 0 300 600 Kilometers

N

2006 2007 2008

20102009

Climate Change

Image of the Future

Image of the Future

Climate change exposure: changes in rain per rainfall event

Ericksen et al, 2011

Unpublished IRLI analysis

Doherty et al 2009

East Africa:Simulated plant funtional types:

(top) 20th century

(bottom) 20th and 21st centuries (one climate model)

Adaptation research priorities• Context of rapidly changing production systems

and livelihood strategies• Will CC mean more or less livestock production

in marginal areas (CC to Livestock keepers)?• What do the exposure thresholds mean for dryland areas?

• Constraints on social/ econ/ institutional issues of adaptive capacity

• Safety nets• Markets • Land tenure

• SCENARIOS as a planning tool

Photo: P. Little 2011

Thank you…