Climate Change& the Built Environment

Marc Porat

DALLAS

SHANGHAI

GUJARAT

DUBAI

72 billionpeople

We are at 385 ppm

Earth’s Surface Temperature

Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

+10.5°F 6°C

+2.7°F 1.8°C

Increasing at +2.5 ppmannually

At 450 ppm CO2 “we will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt & sea level rise out of humanity’s control”

We will reach 450 ppm in 2035

300400500600700800900

1000110012001300

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

As CO2 increases…

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Carbon Dioxide Concentrations

Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

(Billion tons per year) (ppm in atmosphere)CO2 ConcentrationCO2 Emissions

0123456

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Temperature & sea-level rise…

Temperature Change CO

Sea Level Rise meters (m)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Greenland 5m

750,000 Toyota Prius drivers save 2.35M MT of CO2 per year

1 CFPP in 1 year

Sources: U.S. EPA, Toyota, CalStar analysis

Wal-Mart investing $500M in 7 years to reduce energy & CO2 by 20%

1 CFPP in 1 month

Source: Architecture 2030

Home Depot planting 300,000 trees to absorb CO2…

1 CFPP in 10 days

Source: Architecture 2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Worldwide Energy Demand & Coal

Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

(QB

tu)

+62% 276 QBtu

+2320CFPPs3682

CFPPs now

USA Built Environment

51%total

energy

55%totalCO2

Source: EIA, CalStar analysis

USA Energy Demand

Built Environment IndustryTransport22%

27%

51%

Source: EIA, CalStar analysis

USA Energy

Built Environment 51%

Operations 39%

Materials 12%

Residential22%

Buildings 9%

InfraInfra3%3%

Commercial 17%

The Problem

Heat & Cool 38%

Food & Water 19%

Light 18%

Appliances 13%

Other 12%

Source: Freedonia Group, “World Cement to 2010” (2006)

Half of USA Electricity from Coal

Transportation 1%

Building Operations Building Operations 76% of USA electricity76% of USA electricity

Industrial Industrial 23%23%

U.S. Building Inventory

Remodel150Bn sf

Demolish50Bn sf

USA Construction Cash Flood: 2035

Build new

150Bn sf 75% touched

$30T new construction

+

$10Trenovate

2008 305Bn sf

2035 400Bn sf

USA Energy Demand & Coal

Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

(QB

tu)

+34%34 QBtu

+237CFPPs704

CFPPs now

CHINA2020

New Urban350 million

+

New Rural250 million

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Peak CoalMillion Metric TonCoal Equivalent

Source: ???

Scenario 1 – peaked 2033 Scenario 2 – peaked 2029Scenario 3 – peaked 2027

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

All Energy Sources

SolarWind

NuclearHydro

Natural GasOil

CoalDemand

DEFICIT

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

BAU energy demand

Geothermal, biomassImports

COAL

2030 peak

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hyper Optimism

CoalDemand

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

BAU energy demand

Coal 2030 peak

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hyper Optimism

OilCoalDemand

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Coal 2030 peak

China finds oil fieldssize of Iran’s

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Natural Gas

Natural GasOil

CoalDemand

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Coal 2030 peak

Natural gas peaks in 2025

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Hydro Optimism

HydroNatural GasOil

CoalDemand

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Coal 2030 peak

By 202580% of hydro potential

All major rivers dammed

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Nuclear Optimism

NuclearHydro

Natural GasOil

CoalDemand

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Coal 2030 peak

Build 1-GW plants9% growth/year

5 in 2030100 in 2040 200 in 2050

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Wind Optimism

WindNuclearHydro

Natural GasOil

CoalDemand

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Coal 2030 peak

China uses 100% of all landWith Class 3 wind

(33% of all land in China)

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Solar Optimism

SolarWind

NuclearHydro

Natural GasOil

CoalDemand

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Coal 2030 peak

2050 Solar cells + biomasscontribute more than domestic oil

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Geothermal & Biomass Optimism

SolarWind

NuclearHydro

Natural GasOil

CoalDemand

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Geothermal, biomass

Coal 2030 peak

China increase geothermaland biomass by 20% per

year for 20 years

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Import Optimism

SolarWind

NuclearHydro

Natural GasOil

CoalDemand

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Geothermal, biomassImports

Coal 2030 peak

Imports of coal, petroleum and natural gas

equal hydro power

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

Dangerpath

Harmonious Society

Greenpath

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: ???

Four Sectors Need to Conserve

BAU

All other

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

Industry

Built EnvironmentTransportation

Agriculture

CHINA Built Environment

37%total

energy

52%totalCO2

Source: LBNL

China Energy Demand

Built Environment

Industry Transport

50%9%

37%

6%

Agr

Source: EIA, CalStar analysis

China Energy & Built Environment

Built Environment 37%

Operations 23%

Materials 14%

Residential14%

Buildings 11%

InfraInfra3%3%

Commercial 9%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

China Built EnvironmentBusiness As Usual (BAU)

Materials: cement, steel, glass, bricks, wood

Building materials

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

Operations: cooling, heating, lighting, appliances

Building operations

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Building materials

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

SAVINGS

Building operations

Materials: cement, steel, glass, bricks, woodOperations: cooling, heating, lighting, appliances

Net Zero Energy (NZE)Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates

NZE

Net Zero Buildings

BAU energy demand

2030 deficit reduction by >33%

All other sources

Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent

COAL

SAVINGS

DEFICIT

2030 peak

Everythingin the built environment

can be reinvented

Eliminate 27B tons of CO2

Sources: Vattenfall, McKinsey & Co.

4B tons of CO2, negative cost

…all green building materials & technologies

WindowsWashers/ dryers

New-build insulation

Sources: Vattenfall, McKinsey & Co.

€/t CO2

Cum Gt CO2 eliminated

Building envelope

Retrofit floor/ roof

Lighting

Retrofit floor/roof

Other appliances

Heaters

Water heatingA/C

Fridges / freezers

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

0.50 1.51.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Appliances

Retrofit facade

Serious Snapshot

QuietRock®Quiet enables urbanization and densityQuiet walls, floors, ceilings, windows, doors

EcoRock ®Eco reduces CO2 and embodied energyDrywall with 95% less CO2

ThermaProof ® WindowsThermal envelope, R-15Same rating as exterior wall

R-15 Windows

Save 38%of buildingenergy bill

CementCement

Portland cement, 8% of COPortland cement, 8% of CO22

2.5 billion tons/year2.5 billion tons/year$150B world market$150B world marketIndustry stuckIndustry stuckSame since 1824Same since 1824

2.8 BT700M autos x 4T

Automobiles ~ CementBillion Tons CO2

2.4 BT2.6BT cement x 0.9

~

CHINA

49% of worldCement

1.2 billiontonnes

7/18

/200

8 C

alS

tar C

emen

t -C

onfid

entia

l –D

o N

ot D

istri

bute

53

CalStar Products

HELIOTRICITY

Electric Buildings

100 wattsper m2

North, SouthEast, West

ZETA CommunitiesZero Energy Technology & Architecture

Zero Energy Technology & Architecture

$/sf Utility bill/yr

Tons CO2/yr

ZETA $150 $0 0Conventional $200 $1,960 9

Make a Difference

Marc Poratmporat@greencube.com