Climate Change & the Built Environment Marc Porat€¦ · Climate Change & the Built Environment...
Transcript of Climate Change & the Built Environment Marc Porat€¦ · Climate Change & the Built Environment...
Climate Change& the Built Environment
Marc Porat
DALLAS
SHANGHAI
GUJARAT
DUBAI
72 billionpeople
We are at 385 ppm
Earth’s Surface Temperature
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
+10.5°F 6°C
+2.7°F 1.8°C
Increasing at +2.5 ppmannually
At 450 ppm CO2 “we will trigger potentially irreversible glacial melt & sea level rise out of humanity’s control”
We will reach 450 ppm in 2035
300400500600700800900
1000110012001300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
As CO2 increases…
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(Billion tons per year) (ppm in atmosphere)CO2 ConcentrationCO2 Emissions
0123456
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Temperature & sea-level rise…
Temperature Change CO
Sea Level Rise meters (m)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Source: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Greenland 5m
750,000 Toyota Prius drivers save 2.35M MT of CO2 per year
1 CFPP in 1 year
Sources: U.S. EPA, Toyota, CalStar analysis
Wal-Mart investing $500M in 7 years to reduce energy & CO2 by 20%
1 CFPP in 1 month
Source: Architecture 2030
Home Depot planting 300,000 trees to absorb CO2…
1 CFPP in 10 days
Source: Architecture 2030
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Worldwide Energy Demand & Coal
Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
(QB
tu)
+62% 276 QBtu
+2320CFPPs3682
CFPPs now
USA Built Environment
51%total
energy
55%totalCO2
Source: EIA, CalStar analysis
USA Energy Demand
Built Environment IndustryTransport22%
27%
51%
Source: EIA, CalStar analysis
USA Energy
Built Environment 51%
Operations 39%
Materials 12%
Residential22%
Buildings 9%
InfraInfra3%3%
Commercial 17%
The Problem
Heat & Cool 38%
Food & Water 19%
Light 18%
Appliances 13%
Other 12%
Source: Freedonia Group, “World Cement to 2010” (2006)
Half of USA Electricity from Coal
Transportation 1%
Building Operations Building Operations 76% of USA electricity76% of USA electricity
Industrial Industrial 23%23%
U.S. Building Inventory
Remodel150Bn sf
Demolish50Bn sf
USA Construction Cash Flood: 2035
Build new
150Bn sf 75% touched
$30T new construction
+
$10Trenovate
2008 305Bn sf
2035 400Bn sf
USA Energy Demand & Coal
Sources: Architecture 2030, U.S. Energy Information Agency & CalStar analysis
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
(QB
tu)
+34%34 QBtu
+237CFPPs704
CFPPs now
CHINA2020
New Urban350 million
+
New Rural250 million
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Peak CoalMillion Metric TonCoal Equivalent
Source: ???
Scenario 1 – peaked 2033 Scenario 2 – peaked 2029Scenario 3 – peaked 2027
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
All Energy Sources
SolarWind
NuclearHydro
Natural GasOil
CoalDemand
DEFICIT
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
BAU energy demand
Geothermal, biomassImports
COAL
2030 peak
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hyper Optimism
CoalDemand
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
BAU energy demand
Coal 2030 peak
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hyper Optimism
OilCoalDemand
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Coal 2030 peak
China finds oil fieldssize of Iran’s
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Natural Gas
Natural GasOil
CoalDemand
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Coal 2030 peak
Natural gas peaks in 2025
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hydro Optimism
HydroNatural GasOil
CoalDemand
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Coal 2030 peak
By 202580% of hydro potential
All major rivers dammed
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nuclear Optimism
NuclearHydro
Natural GasOil
CoalDemand
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Coal 2030 peak
Build 1-GW plants9% growth/year
5 in 2030100 in 2040 200 in 2050
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Wind Optimism
WindNuclearHydro
Natural GasOil
CoalDemand
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Coal 2030 peak
China uses 100% of all landWith Class 3 wind
(33% of all land in China)
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Solar Optimism
SolarWind
NuclearHydro
Natural GasOil
CoalDemand
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Coal 2030 peak
2050 Solar cells + biomasscontribute more than domestic oil
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Geothermal & Biomass Optimism
SolarWind
NuclearHydro
Natural GasOil
CoalDemand
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Geothermal, biomass
Coal 2030 peak
China increase geothermaland biomass by 20% per
year for 20 years
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Import Optimism
SolarWind
NuclearHydro
Natural GasOil
CoalDemand
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Geothermal, biomassImports
Coal 2030 peak
Imports of coal, petroleum and natural gas
equal hydro power
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
Dangerpath
Harmonious Society
Greenpath
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: ???
Four Sectors Need to Conserve
BAU
All other
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
Industry
Built EnvironmentTransportation
Agriculture
CHINA Built Environment
37%total
energy
52%totalCO2
Source: LBNL
China Energy Demand
Built Environment
Industry Transport
50%9%
37%
6%
Agr
Source: EIA, CalStar analysis
China Energy & Built Environment
Built Environment 37%
Operations 23%
Materials 14%
Residential14%
Buildings 11%
InfraInfra3%3%
Commercial 9%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
China Built EnvironmentBusiness As Usual (BAU)
Materials: cement, steel, glass, bricks, wood
Building materials
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
Operations: cooling, heating, lighting, appliances
Building operations
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Building materials
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
SAVINGS
Building operations
Materials: cement, steel, glass, bricks, woodOperations: cooling, heating, lighting, appliances
Net Zero Energy (NZE)Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 2050 China Energy Study, preliminary estimates
NZE
Net Zero Buildings
BAU energy demand
2030 deficit reduction by >33%
All other sources
Million Metric TonCoal Equivalent
COAL
SAVINGS
DEFICIT
2030 peak
Everythingin the built environment
can be reinvented
Eliminate 27B tons of CO2
Sources: Vattenfall, McKinsey & Co.
4B tons of CO2, negative cost
…all green building materials & technologies
WindowsWashers/ dryers
New-build insulation
Sources: Vattenfall, McKinsey & Co.
€/t CO2
Cum Gt CO2 eliminated
Building envelope
Retrofit floor/ roof
Lighting
Retrofit floor/roof
Other appliances
Heaters
Water heatingA/C
Fridges / freezers
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
0.50 1.51.0 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Appliances
Retrofit facade
Serious Snapshot
QuietRock®Quiet enables urbanization and densityQuiet walls, floors, ceilings, windows, doors
EcoRock ®Eco reduces CO2 and embodied energyDrywall with 95% less CO2
ThermaProof ® WindowsThermal envelope, R-15Same rating as exterior wall
R-15 Windows
Save 38%of buildingenergy bill
CementCement
Portland cement, 8% of COPortland cement, 8% of CO22
2.5 billion tons/year2.5 billion tons/year$150B world market$150B world marketIndustry stuckIndustry stuckSame since 1824Same since 1824
2.8 BT700M autos x 4T
Automobiles ~ CementBillion Tons CO2
2.4 BT2.6BT cement x 0.9
~
CHINA
49% of worldCement
1.2 billiontonnes
7/18
/200
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CalStar Products
HELIOTRICITY
Electric Buildings
100 wattsper m2
North, SouthEast, West
ZETA CommunitiesZero Energy Technology & Architecture
Zero Energy Technology & Architecture
$/sf Utility bill/yr
Tons CO2/yr
ZETA $150 $0 0Conventional $200 $1,960 9
Make a Difference
Marc [email protected]