Climate Change OverviewSamoa Climate Change Summit

2009

Willy MorrellUNDP Samoa

Multi Country Office – serving Samoa, Cook Islands, Tokelau and Niue

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The Nobel Peace Prize 2007

Al Gore and R. K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC

Science reaches out to public

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Note: Without natural greenhouse effect mean temperature would be around -18ºC

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Carbon Dioxide per year (7,500,000 Cruise Liners)

1000w Air-Conditioner 10 hours per day

5 kg carbon dioxide

27,246,000,000,005 kg

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Source: IPCC (2007)

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Rising Temperatures

1.5º

6º

Changes in:

- Rainfall - Soil evaporation - Physical geography, landscapes - Sea level - Extreme weather - Ecosystem distribution/composition

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“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising of the global mean sea level.” (IPCC, 2007)

The concern is that the climate is changing too rapidly for natural ecosystem and human adaptation.

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Time

Clim

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1. Air temps 1.0 - 4.17ºC in the N. Pacific

2. Air temps up 0.99 - 3.11ºC in the S. Pacific

3. Sea temps up 1.0 - 3.0ºC

4. Ocean pH by 0.3 - 0.4 units

5. Sea-level rise of 0.19 - 0.58 m

6. Rainfall -2.7% to +25.8% in the N. Pacific

7. Rainfall -14% to +14.6% in the S. Pacific

8. Possible increased frequency and/or intensity of

extreme weather events including cyclones

Predicted regional changes by 2100

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Latest 2009 findings The Earth is presently tracking towards worst-case

impact scenarios outlined in the 2007 IPCC 4AR

The is growing evidence to suggest that these scenarios may be overly conservative

If present greenhouse gas emission trends continue the Pacific region could experience mean sea-level increases of 1m or more

We are locked into some degree of climate change regardless what the industrialized nations do now!

- Copenhagen Climate Change Council, April 2009 -

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Greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change impacts

Global Climate Change

• Climate Change Mitigation and Climate Change Adaptation are complementary risk management strategies

• The UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) frames obligations for each country to implement both strategies

MITIGATION ADAPTATION

• Reduce magnitude of global warming • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• Reduce vulnerability to CC impacts• Reduce human and material losses

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Climate Change impacts

Increasing incidents of infectious, water-borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional

public health costs

PUBLIC HEALTH AGRICULTURE

Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation

demand, growing risk of pest infestations

FORESTRY

Changes in forest composition,

extent, health & productivity

WATERRESOURCES

Variability in water supply, quality and distribution. More competition

and cross-border conflicts over water resources

COASTALSYSTEMS

Erosion, inundation, salinisation, stress

on mangroves, marshes, wetlands

ECOSYSTEMSERVICES

Loss of habitat, species and protective

ecosystems, migratory shifts

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SCOPING STUDY

Given PIC vulnerability we must primarily focus on adaptation

Strong call from PICs for less consultation and more delivery of ‘concrete’ adaptation measures at the community level to provide case-studies and lessons learnt

A call to focus on adaptation measures that provide short-term development outcomes and build long term resilience (e.g. food security and DRM)

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CONTINUED…

Also need to continue focus on mitigation measures that provide ‘win-win’ outcomes

Short term poverty reductionLonger term resilience to climate changeReduced GHG emissions

e.g. renewable energy, sustainable transport, mangrove planting etc

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Fa’afetai lava