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Charts for Inflation Report2/2004
Chapter 1.
Chart 1.1 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector2). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) Norges Bank's estimatesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Chart 1.2 Prices for goods and services produced in Norway1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2001 2002 2003 2004
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Percentage share of CPI-ATE in brackets. Norges Bank's estimates
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Services produced in Norway (27)
Goods produced in Norway (27)
Chart 1.3 Employed persons according to LFS. In millions. Seasonally adjusted. Monthly figures. Jan 98 – Mar 04
2,22
2,24
2,26
2,28
2,30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2,22
2,24
2,26
2,28
2,30
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 1.4 Interest rate expectations. Actual developments and expected key rate1) at 24 Jun 04. 2 Jan 03 – 1 May 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) FRA and futures contracts adjusted for the estimated difference between 3-month money market rates and the key rate Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank
US
Euro areaNorway
UK
3
4
5
6
jan 03 mai 03 sep 03 jan 04 mai 04
3
4
5
6
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Chart 1.5 Yield on government bonds with 10 years’ residual maturity. Daily figures.1 Jan 03 – 24 Jun 04
Norway
Germany
US
Chart 1.6 Import-weighted exchange rate index, I-441). Daily figures. 1 Jan 04 – 24 June 04
92
94
96
98
100
102
jan 04 mar 04 mai 04 jul 04
92
94
96
98
100
102
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Chapter 2.
Chart 2.1 GDP. 4-quarter growth. Per cent. 01 Q1 – 04 Q1
-4
-2
1
3
5
2001 2002 2003 2004
-4
-2
1
3
5
Japan
Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US)
US
Euro area
UK
Chart 2.2 Interest rate expectations. Actual developments and expected key rate1) at 4 March and 24 June 2004. 2 Jan 03 – 1 May 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2003 2004 2005 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) FRA and futures contracts adjusted for the estimated difference between 3-month money market rates and the key rateSources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank
UK
Euro area
US4 March24 June
Chart 2.3 Structural budget balance. Per cent of nominal GDP. Annual figures. 1995 – 20051)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1) Estimates for 2003 – 2005
Source: OECD
Euro area
US
Japan
Chart 2.4 Consumer prices. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Jun 04
0
2
4
6
jan 01 jan 02 jan 03 jan 04
0
2
4
6
Sources: EcoWin, EUR-OP/Eurostat, Federal Statistical Office (DE) and Central Statistics Office (IRL)
Ireland
Germany
PortugalEuro area
Chart 2.5 Consumer prices. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – May 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
jan 01 okt 01 jul 02 apr 03 jan 04
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden, Statistics Finland and Statistics Denmark
Norway(CPI-ATE)
Finland (HICP)
Denmark (HICP)
Sweden (UND1X)
Chart 2.6 Producer prices. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 00 – May 04
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
jan 00 jan 01 jan 02 jan 03 jan 04
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Sources: EcoWin, EUR-OP/Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics (US), Statistics Japan, Federal Statistical Office (DE) and National Statistics (UK)
US
Japan
UK Euro area
Chart 2.7 GDP. Change on same quarter previous year1). Per cent. 01 Q1 – 04 Q1
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001 2002 2003 2004
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
China
India
1) GDP in India is measured at factor prices
Sources: EcoWin, National Bureau of Statistics (CH), Central Bank of Malaysia, Central Statistical Organisation (I) and Consensus Economics
Malaysia
1) Brent Blend
Sources: International Petroleum Exchange and Norges Bank
Chart 2.8 Oil price1) in USD per barrel. Daily figures. 1 Jan 01 – 24 Jun 04. Futures prices at 4 Mar 04 and 24 Jun 04
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oil price
Futures prices 4 March 04
Futures prices24 June 04
1) Average from 1 June – 24 June
Sources: London Metal Exchange, HWWA and EcoWin
Chart 2.9 Commodity prices in USD. Index. Jan 1994=100. 3-month moving average. Monthly figures. Jan 94 – Jun 041)
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
50
70
90
110
130
150
170Copper
Coal
Aluminium
Zinc
Chart 2.10 Wage growth. Change on same quarter previous year. Per cent. 97 Q1 – 04 Q1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1997 1999 2001 2003
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (US), National Statistics (UK) and EUR-OP/Eurostat
US
UK
Euro area
Chart 2.11 Consumer price inflation. Year-on-year rise. Per cent. 1995 – 20071)
-2
0
2
4
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
-2
0
2
4
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: OECD and Norges Bank
Norway's trading partners
Euro areaUS
Japan
Chapter 3.
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
Chart 3.1 Assumption for the money market rate1). Forward interest rate2). Monthly figures. Per cent
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004. The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 24 JuneSource: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
3-month money market rate
Chart 3.2 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1). Forward exchange rates. Monthly figures
80
90
100
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
80
90
100
110
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP. Difference in per cent
2) In billions of NOK. Constant 2001 prices3) Estimates for 2004 – 2007 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
500
800
1100
1400
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Chart 3.3 Projections for the output gap1), actual GDP2) and trend GDP2). Annual figures. 1990 – 20073)
Trend GDP (right hand
scale)
Actual GDP (right-hand scale)
Output gap (left-hand scale)
Chart 3.4 Real growth in household disposable income and consumption. Annual figures. Per cent. 1990 – 20071)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Real income growth
Real growth in consumption
Chart 3.5 Seasonally adjusted house prices. NOK 1000 per square metre. Monthly figures. Jan 00 – May 04
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Association of Real Estate Agency Firms
Chart 3.6 Growth in credit1) to households and enterprises. 12-month growth. Per cent. Jan 97 – Apr 04
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1997 1999 2001 2003
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Credit to non-financial enterprises
1) From domestic sources (C2)Source: Norges Bank
Credit to households
Chart 3.7 Investment in mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP and LFS unemployment. Per cent. Annual figures. 1992 – 20071)
13
15
17
19
21
1992 1996 2000 2004
2.7
3.3
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.7
6.3
LFS unemployment (inverted, right-hand scale)
Investment share (left-hand scale)
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 3.8 Manufacturing output index. Volume. 3-month moving average. Jan 00 – Apr 04
90
94
98
102
106
110
114
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
90
94
98
102
106
110
114
Consumer goods
Intermediate goods
Capital goods
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 3.9 Change in structural non-oil budget balance1). Annual figures.1990 – 2004
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20041) The budget balance as a percentage of trend GDP for mainland Norway, change on previous year
Source: Revised National Budget 2004
Chart 3.10 Underlying spending growth in the government budget and nominal growth in mainland GDP. Year-on-year growth. Per cent. 1990 – 20041)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1) Estimates for 2004
Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway
Underlying spending growth
Nominal growth in mainland GDP
Chart 3.11 Growth in number employed and contributions from the public sector. Annual figures. 1971 – 2003
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Source: Statistics Norway
Employment growth, per cent
Contribution from public sector, percentage points
Chart 3.12 Change in employment on previous year, per cent. Unemployment1) as a percentage of the labour force. Annual figures. 1980 – 20072)
0
2
4
6
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-4
-2
0
2
4
1) LFS unemployment2) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
LFS unemployment(left-hand scale)
Number employed(right-hand scale)
Chart 3.13 Labour force as a percentage of population aged 16–74 (labour force participation rate). Per cent. Annual figures. 1980 – 20071)
65
67
69
71
73
75
65
67
69
71
73
75
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Labour force participation rate
Chart 3.14 Number of disability pensioners as a percentage of the population (aged 18 – 67) and number of sickness days per employee1). Annual figures. 1980 – 2003
4
6
8
10
12
14
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20001) Paid by the National Insurance2) Since 2000 the sick pay scheme has also applied to all central government employees. This results in a break in the series between 1999 and 2000 Source: National Insurance Administration
Disability pensioners
Sickness days2)
Chart 3.15 Developments in number of person-hours worked and the number of employed persons in mainland Norway. Annual figures. Index. 1970=100. 1970 – 2003
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Employment
Person-hours
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chapter 4.
Chart 4.1 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1). Forward exchange rates. Monthly figures
80
90
100
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
80
90
100
110
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
Chart 4.2 Assumption for the money market rate1). Forward interest rate2). Monthly figures. Per cent
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
3-month money market rate
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004. The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 4 March and 24 JuneSource: Norges Bank
Chart 4.3 CPI-ATE. Seasonally adjusted monthly rise. 3-month moving average, annualised. Oct 03 – Dec 041)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
nov 03 feb 04 mai 04 aug 04 nov 04
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Projections
1) Estimates from Jun 04 – Dec 04Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Historical
Chart 4.4 CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Dec 072)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1) Norges Bank's estimates2) Estimates from Jun 04 – Dec 07Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
-2
0
2
4
6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
0
2
4
6
Chart 4.5 CPI and CPI-ATE. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Dec 071)
CPI
CPI-ATE
1) Estimates from Jun 04 – Dec 07
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.6 CPI and prices for imported consumer goods. Annual figures. Index. 1998=100. 1979 – 2003
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
Consumer price index
Imported consumer goods
Source: Statistics Norway
Chart 4.7 Projected price movements for some imported consumer goods, measured in foreign currency. Quarterly figures. Index. 91 Q1=100. 91 Q1 – 04 Q1
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Sources: EcoWin and Norges Bank
Clothing and footwear
Audiovisual equipment
Chart 4.8 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual figures. 1995 – 20071)
1) Estimates for 2004 – 2007
Source: Norges Bank
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Chart 4.9 Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and I-44. 4-quarter rise. Per cent. 98 Q1 – 04 Q2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1998 2000 2002 2004
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1) Norges Bank's estimates: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages
2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars. Observations in April and May 2004 are used as the basis for the second quarter
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
I-44
Imported consumer goods in External Trade Statistics1)
Imported consumer goods in CPI2)
Chart 4.10 Contribution of the exchange rate to rise in prices for imported consumer goods. Based on historical exchange rates and the forward exchange rate in Inflation Report 1/04 and 2/04. Percentage points. Quarterly figures. 01 Q1 – 07 Q4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Inflation Report 1/04
Inflation Report 2/04
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 4.11 Labour costs per produced unit1) and domestic price inflation2). Rise on same period previous year. Per cent. Jun 80 – May 04
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
-4
0
4
8
12
16
1) Labour costs in relation to gross product. Mainland Norway excl. the energy sector. 4-quarter moving average 2) Adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Monthly figuresSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Labour costs per produced unit
Domestic inflation
Chart 4.12 Expected consumer price inflation in 5 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 – 04 Q2
0
1
2
3
4
jun 02 des 02 jun 03 des 03 jun 040
1
2
3
4
Experts
Employer organisations
Source: TNS Gallup
Employee organisations
Chart 4.13 Expected consumer price inflation in 2 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 – 04 Q2
0
1
2
3
4
jun 02 des 02 jun 03 des 03 jun 04
0
1
2
3
4
Experts
Employer organisations
Source: TNS Gallup
Employee organisations
Chart 4.14 Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate2). Per cent. Annual figures. 1993 – 20073)
0
2
4
6
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
0
2
4
6
1) Average for all groups. Including cost of additional vacation days2) LFS3) Projections for 2004 – 2007Sources: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Unemployment rate
Annual wage growth
Chart 4.15 Growth in real consumer wages and real producer wages1). Per cent. Annual figures. 1996 –20072)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1996 1999 2002 2005
0
1
2
3
4
5
1) Consumer price inflation for goods and services produced in Norway is used as a deflator for real producer wages. The CPI is the deflator for real consumer wages2) Projections for 2004 – 2007Source: Norges Bank
Real consumer wages
Real producer wages
Chart 4.16 Projections and uncertainty for the CPI-ATE1). 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 – Dec 07
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-1
0
1
2
3
4
530% 50% 70% 90%
1) The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for developments in the CPI-ATE. Probabilities are based on the difference between projected and actual developments in underlying inflation in the period 1997 – 2004Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Chart 4.17 Changes in I-44. Daily figures. 1 Mar 04 – 24 Jun 04
92
94
96
98
100
Mar 04 Apr 04 May 04 Jun 0492
94
96
98
100
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Chapter 5
Chart 5.1 CPI. Moving 10-year average1) and variation2). 1979 – 20043). Per cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 20040
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CPI
Inflation target
1) The moving average is estimated 7 years back, current year and 2 years ahead 2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the period, measured as +/- one standard deviation 3) Figures for 2002 – 2004 are based on projectionsSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI1)
Inflation target
1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP 2) The band shows the variation in the output gap measured as + one standard deviation. The variation is estimated as average standard deviation in a 10-year period, 7 years back, current year and 2 years ahead
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Chart 5.2 Projections for the output gap, level1)and variation2). 1979 – 2004. Per cent
Chart 5.3 Projections for the CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2) in Inflation Report 1/04 (red) and 2/04 (green). Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excl. energy products2) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDP
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Output gap
IR 1/04IR 2/04
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0
2
4
6
8
10
Chart 5.4 Assumption for the money market rate1). Forward interest rate2). Monthly figures. Per cent
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate2) 3-month money market rate up to May 2004. The 3-month forward rate is estimated using four money market rates and four government bond yields with different maturities as observed on 4 March and 24 JuneSource: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
3-month money market rate
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
Chart 5.5 Assumption for the krone exchange rate (I-44)1). Forward exchange rates. Monthly figures
80
90
100
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
80
90
100
110
1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Forward rate 24 June (assumption IR 2/04)
Import-weighted exchange rate, I-44
Forward rate 4 March (assumption IR 1/04)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
nov 02 mar 03 jul 03 nov 03 mar 04 jul 04
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 5.6 Interval for the sight deposit rate at the end of each strategy period and actual developments. Daily figures. 1 Nov 02 – 1 July 04
Strategy period 1/03
Sight deposit rate
Strategy period 2/03
Strategy period 3/03
Strategy period 1/04
Strategy period 3/02
1)A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
Source: Norges Bank
Chart 5.7 Import-weighted krone exchange rate1), sight deposit rate and 3-month interest rate differential against trading partners. Daily figures. 1 Jan 02 – 24 Jun 04
85
90
95
100
105
110
2002 2003 2004
-2
0
2
4
6
8
I-44 (left-hand scale)
Sight deposit rate (right-hand scale)
3-month interest rate differential (right-
hand scale)
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1
2
3
4
5
6
1) Estimated as a weighted average of the forward rates for the euro area, the US, Sweden and the UKSource: Norges Bank
Norwegian forward interest rate
Forward rate trading partners1)
Chart 5.8 Forward interest rates. Monthly figures. Per cent. Jan 04 – Dec 07
24 June4 March
Chart 5.9 Projections for CPI-ATE1) and the output gap2). Per cent
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
CPI-ATE
Output gap
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) The output gap measures the difference between actual and trend mainland GDPSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
2
4
6
8
10
2001 2002 2003 2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
3-month rate, Norway
Norwegian forward rate
Taylor rate
Chart 5.10 3-month money-market rate1), Taylor rate, forward interest rates for trading partners and Norway at 24 June. Monthly figures. Jan 01 – Dec 04
1) The money market rate is normally about ¼ percentage point higher than the sight deposit rate
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Forward rates for trading partners