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HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING
Lectures Week 3
Dr. Mohamed wahba
HUMAN RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
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After studying this chapter, you should be able to:After studying this chapter, you should be able to:
Define HR planning and outline the HRplanning process.
Discuss several ways of managing a
surplus of human resources. Explain the main techniques used in
employment planning and forecasting.
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Linking Employers Strategy to Plans
Figure 52
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Human Resource Planning
Human Resource (HR) Planning
The process of analyzing and identifying the needfor and availability of human resources so that theorganization can meet its objectives.
HR Planning Responsibilities
Top HR executive and subordinates gatherinformation from other managers to use in thedevelopment of HR projections for topmanagement to use in strategic planning andsetting organizational goals
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Reasons, human resources planning
Increasing population and the large size of the workforceand the diversity of the composition.
The spread of education and diversity and the increase inprofessional disciplines.
Increasing number of organizations and institutions andthen increasing needs and compete for the availablemanpower.
Development of the technology used by organizationsand the need to obtain a workforce that can deal withthis technology.
Change the structures of organizations, both because ofthe development of technology or the changing nature ofactivities or a new expansion.
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The importance of human resource planning
To obtain the required labor standards specified in theappropriate time.
Rationalize the use of the human resource and to directhis energies in the right direction.
Determine the proper career path for individuals.
Identify training needs for individuals
Functionally to facilitate the movement of workers (fromthe transfer and promotion)
Treat the problem of the imbalance that occurs in thedistribution of workers to different departments and units.
Stability of employment and raise their efficiency andincrease productivity
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Purpose of HR PlanningPurpose of HR Planning
Figure 24
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Typical Division of HR Responsibilities:Typical Division of HR Responsibilities:HR PlanningHR Planning
Figure 25
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HR Planning ProcessHR Planning Process
Figure 26
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Human Resource Planning (contd)
Small Business and HR Planning Issues
Attracting and retaining qualified outsiders
Management succession between generations ofowners
Evolution of HR activities as business grows
Family relationships and HR policies
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HR Planning Process
HR Strategies
The means used to anticipate and manage thesupply of and demand for human resources.
Provide overall direction for the way in which HRactivities will be developed and managed.
OverallOverallStrategic PlanStrategic Plan
Human ResourcesHuman ResourcesStrategic PlanStrategic Plan
HR ActivitiesHR Activities
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Benefits of HR Planning
Better view of the HR dimensions of business
decisions
Lower HR costs through better HR
management.
More timely recruitment for anticipate HRneeds
More inclusion of protected groups through
planned increases in workforce diversity.
Better development of managerial talent
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Scanning the External Environment
Environmental Scanning
The process of studying the environment of theorganization to pinpoint opportunities and threats.
Environmental Changes Impacting HR
Governmental Influences
Economic conditions
Geographic and competitive concerns
Workforce composition
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Assessing the Internal Workforce (contd)
Organizational Capabilities Inventory
HRIS databasessources of information aboutemployees knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs)
Components of an organizational capabilitiesinventory
Individual employee demographics
Individual employee career progression
Individual job performance data
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Forecasting HR Supply and Demand
Forecasting
The use of information from the past and present toidentify expected future conditions.
Forecasting Methods
Judgmental Estimatesasking managers opinions, top-down or
bottom-up
Rules of thumbusing general guidelines
Delphi techniqueasking a group of experts Nominal groupsreaching a group consensus in open
discussion
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HR ForecastingHR Forecasting
Figure 27
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Forecasting HR Supply and Demand
(contd)
Forecasting Methods (contd)
Mathematical Statistical regression analysis
Simulation models
Productivity ratiosunits produced per employee
Staffing ratiosestimates of indirect labor needs
Forecasting Periods
Short-termless than one year Intermediateup to five years
Long-rangemore than five years
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Forecasting HR Supply and Demand(contd)
Forecasting the Demand for Human Resources
Organization-wide estimate for total demand
Unit breakdown for specific skill needs by number and
type of employee Develop decision rules (fill rates) for positions to be filledinternally and externally.
Develop additional decision rules for positions impacted bythe chain effects of internal promotions and transfers.
Forecasting the Supply for Human Resources
External Supply
Internal Supply
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Forecasting HR Supply (contd)
Forecasting External HR Supply
Factors affecting external
Net migration for an area
Individuals entering and leaving the workforce
Individuals graduating from schools and colleges
Changing workforce composition and patterns
Economic forecasts
Technological developments and shifts
Actions of competing employers
Government regulations and pressures
Other circumstances affecting the workforce
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Forecasting HR Supply
Forecasting Internal HR Supply
Effects of promotions, lateral moves, and terminations
Succession analysis
Replacement charts
Succession planning The process of identifyinga longer-term plan for theorderly replacement of keyemployees.
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Estimating Internal Labor Supply for a Given UnitEstimating Internal Labor Supply for a Given Unit
Figure 28
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Forecasting Personnel Needs
Trend analysis
The study of a firms past employment needs overa period of years to predict future needs.
Ratio analysis
A forecasting technique for determining futurestaff needs by using ratios between a causalfactor and the number of employees needed.
Assumes that the relationship between the causalfactor and staffing needs is constant
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m_wahbam_wahba20032003 hotmailhotmail..comcom 2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 523
The Scatter Plot
Scatter plot
A graphical method used to help identify therelationship between two variables.
Size of Hospital Number of(Number of Beds) Registered Nurses
200 240
300 260
400 470
500 500
600 620
700 660
800 820
900 860
m_wahbam_wahba20032003 hotmailhotmail..comcom 2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 524
Determining the Relationship BetweenHospital Size and Number of Nurses
Figure 53
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Trend Analysis of HR Demand
1997 $2,351 14.33 164
1998 $2,613 11.12 235
1999 $2,935 8.34 352
2000 $3,306 10.02 330
2001 $3,613 11.12 325
2002 $3,748 11.12 337
2003 $3,880 12.52 310
2004* $4,095 12.52 327
2005* $4,283 12.52 342
2006* $4,446 12.52 355
BUSINESS LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCESFACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEMAND
YEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS) (SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES)
*Projected figures
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Drawbacks to Scatter Plots
1. They focus on projections and historical relationships, and
assume that the firms existing structure and activities will
continue into the future.
2. They generally do not consider the impact the companys
strategic initiatives may have on future staffing levels.
3. They tend to support compensation plans that reward managers
for managing ever-larger staffs, and will not uncover managers
who expand their staffs irrespective of strategic needs.
4. They tend to bake in the nonproductive idea that increases in
staffs are inevitable.
5. They tend to validate and institutionalize existing planning
processes and ways of doing things, even in the face of rapid
change.
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m_wahbam_wahba20032003 hotmailhotmail..comcom 2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 527
Using Computers to Forecast PersonnelRequirements
Computerized forecasts
The use software packages to determine of futurestaff needs by projecting sales, volume ofproduction, and personnel required to maintain avolume of output.
Generates figures on average staff levels required tomeet product demands, as well as forecasts for directlabor, indirect staff, and exempt staff.
Typical metrics: direct labor hours required to produceone unit of product (a measure of productivity), and threesales projectionsminimum, maximum, and probable.
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Using Markov Analysis to ForecastPersonnel Requirements Markov analysisMarkov analysisis a technique that deals with the
probabilities of future occurrences by analyzing
presently known probabilities
It has numerous applications in business
Markov analysis makes the assumption that the systemstarts in an initial state or condition
The probabilities of changing from one state to another
are called a matrix of transition probabilities
Solving Markov problems requires basic matrix
manipulation
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Assumptions for using Markov
429
1. There are a limited or finite number of possiblestates
2. The probability of changing states remains thesame over time
3. We can predict any future state from theprevious state and the matrix of transitionprobabilities
4. The size and makeup of the system do not
change during the analysis
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Markov Analysis for a Retail Company
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Ex1
Company consists of 300 employees at its headquarters
in Cairo and 100 employees in the branch of Alexandria.
The movement of staff during the past five years
represented the following percentages:
431
tofrom
CairoAlexandriaExit
CairoAlexandria
Predicted the number of staff in both headquartersand the branch of Alexandria the next two yearsthrough the numbers currently available only
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YEAR 1
CAIRO
300
80CAIRO240
10Alexandria30
10EXIT30
Alexandria
100
15CAIRO15
75Alexandria75
10EXIT10
At the end of the first year the number of employees in CAIRO =240+15=255At the end of the first year the number of employees in Alexandria =75+30=105
SOLVE
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YEAR 2
CAIRO
255
80CAIRO204
10Alexandria26
10EXIT25
Alexandria
105
15CAIRO16
75Alexandria79
10EXIT10
At the end of the second year the number of employees in CAIRO =204+16=220At the end of the second year the number of employees in Alexandria= 26+79=105
SOLVE
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Ex2
Company consists of three offices in Egypt (Cairo
- Tanta - Port Said) and works in this company in
2010 (900) employees distributed as follows:
400 employees in Cairo.
300 employees in Tanta.
200 employees in Port Said.
Predicted the number of staff in each region after
two years (at the end of 2012) if you have the
following information derived from the analysis of
the movement of staff during the past five years.
434
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EXEXEXEX2222
TO\FROMCairoTantaPortSaid
Exit
Cairo7051015
Tanta1065520
Port Said1057510
m_wahbam_wahba20032003 hotmailhotmail..comcom 2005 Prentice Hall Inc. All rights reserved. 536
Manual Systems and Replacement Charts
Personnel replacement charts
Company records showing present performanceand promotability of inside candidates for themost important positions.
Position replacement card
A card prepared for each position in a company toshow possible replacement candidates and theirqualifications.
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How to deal with the surplus and deficit
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First, dealing with the surplus
If the demand over supply in the labormarket
1. Rehabilitation of this type of employment2. Retain employment for cases of leaving the
service
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How to deal with the surplus and deficit
439
First, dealing with the surplus
If the supply over demand in the labor market:1. Retirement2. Encourage early retirement3. Unemployment compensation4. Training and retraining
5. Find alternative employment
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How to deal with the surplus and deficit
440
Secondly, dealing with the deficit
If the demand over supply in the labor market:1. Find new sources of employment
2. Facilitate the selection process3. Wage increase4. Raise the productivity of the individual5. Enlargement the job6. use Technology instate of employees
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How to deal with the surplus and deficit
441
Secondly, dealing with the deficit
If the demand over supply in the labor market:1. Choose the best available items
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