Post on 30-Nov-2014
description
State, Public Policies and Trust
in Latin America.
María Cecilia Güemes
Madrid, July 10, 2012
Source:www.cartoonstock.com
Main questions:
Can the State promote trust?
In which ways do public policies
influence the creation of trust?
What is trust?
Belief-Attitude Rational perception
Context
Institutions trust Experiences + images +
How do State and Public Policies promote trust ?
Enforcement Welfare
Government
Effectiveness
equality
+
images about us
+
oportunities to meet
with others
+
THEORY
Cognitive inferences about society and the “others”
HYPOTHESES
H 1: High levels of Government effectiveness increase
the probability of Trust.
H 2: High levels of Institutional Trust increase the
probability of Trust.
H 3: Social Equity increases the probability of Trust.
H 4: Further development of the Welfare System
increases the probability of Trust.
Methodology
Part 1: Looking for explanations
Focus on: Latin America (18 countries)
Multinivel Model
Part 2: Looking for interpretations
Focus on: Argentina. Neoliberalism
Case Study
Part I Multilevel Model Variables
VD: Trust Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you need to be very careful in dealing with people? 0=no trust, 1=trust
Independents Variables, Individual Level: Source Latinobarometro, 2008 Trust in the Police
0=No trust 1= Little Trust 2= Some Trust 3=A lot of Trust
Trust in Courts
Trust in Civil Service
Trust in Congress
Optimism on the future Respect to your children, do you think that they will live better, the same or worse than you live today? 0=Better, 1=as I, 2=worse
Ideology: Left-right wing Scale 0=left, 10=right Catholics 0=no, 1=yes
Participation in Associations 0=for those who claim to be inactive members or do not belong to any voluntary organization, 1=those who claim to be active members of at least one voluntary organization
Civic Activism Taking part in authorized demostration 0=no, 1=si
Feeling of Insecurity Living in your country is safer or unsafer each day 0=more safe, 1=as safe, 2=unsafer
Perception of equality Just and Fair distribution of wealth :0= not guaranteed at all ,1=little guaranteed, 2=fair guaranteed, 3= completely guaranteed
Age genre 0=male, 1=female
education 0=illiterate, 1= incomplete primary 2= complete primary, 3= incomplete secondary, 4= complete secondary, 5=incomplete high, 6= complete high
Independents Variables, Country Level
Government Effectiviness WB, 2007 Social Public Spending (%GDP) CEPAL, 2005- 2006 Income Inequality –Gini Index CEPAL, 2007 GDP per capita FMI, 2006
Results
Null Model Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
Optimism on the future
***Significant at 99% **Significant at 95% * Significant at 90%
Findings of the Multilevel
• H 1: Government Effectiviness is NOT significant
• H 2: Trust in the Police and Courts are NOT significant
(and the sign is negative!) Trust in Congress is significant
and positive
• H 3: Inequality is NOT significant
• H 4: Social Public Spending is NOT significant (and the
sign is negative!)
• Other results:
• Percepcion of equality is significant and positive
• Education is NOT significant (and the sign is negative!)
• Participation in Associations and Civic Activism are not
significant
.2.2
5.3
.35
marg
pro
b
0 .5 1 1.5 2n1 sensación de inseguridad
Greater
than 30%
Probability of trust by insecurity feeling
Insecurity feeling
.15
.2.2
5.3
.35
marg
pro
b1
0 1 2 3n1 justa distribución de la riqueza
Greater
than 30%
Probability of trust by equality perception
Equality Perception
Latin America´ perception of trust?
I trust
You trust
He trusts
We trust
They trust…
What a bunch of naive people!
Isn´t it?