Post on 02-Jun-2018
8/11/2019 Can Bernie Win? | Vanguard Press | Mar. 22, 1990
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C a n B e r n i e W i n ?BUR L
Tbe above question iscer-tain' 0 beaskedrepeated-ly during the next eight months.Pundits, pols and pollsters in
Vermont will agonize over it inm uch the sam e w ay that their
national counterparts have
wondered, "WhatdocsJessewant?"
The answer, however, seems
fair!yobvious inboth cases. Jacksonwants to be president. And, yes,
Sanders can defeat Republican
incumbent Peter Smith in the race
forV ermont's lone US House seat.But no one, including the
candidates, imagines that eithergoal will be easily attained. In
fact. there are lots of reasons 10
bet on -Smith in the congres-
sional contest.
One of the strongest is that
House incumbents a lmost a lwayswin re-election. In 1988, for ex-
ample, thei r success rate was about
98 percent. And a few of the 20
or so losers probably would havewon, tOO, had tbey no t been in-
volved in scandals of some sort.
Assuming that Smith 's per-
sonal reputation remains untar-
n ished, the race becomes h is 10
lose. Sanders must then over-
come the considerabl e advantages
N Q TON
of incumbency while convinc-
inga majority of voters that Smith'svoting record is oot in their interests.
This is a nearly impossiblc
task, in the opinion of Middle.
bury College political scientist
E ric D avis. "I'd be very sur-
prised if Bernie gets more than
40 percent" of the vote, he says.Davis points to Smith 's con-
stituent-service operation, which
has helped hundreds of Ver-
monters slice their way through
the federal bureaucratic maze.
That assistance gets dispensed
from five offices around the state,each of them located in a major
population center. Sm ith's out.
reach centers, which consume alarge share of his staff budget,also afford the c ongressman a
high degree of political visibility
in these key localities.
In addition, Smith has done
"8 very good job of positioning
himself in the middle of the poli-
tical spectrum," Davis notes.
The incumbent's voting record,
w hich generally fits snugly in
the Jefforcs-Srafford-Alken mold
of moderate V ermont R epub-
licanism, could well persuade many
D emocrats to v ote for S mith,
,....
Davis believes. And thattempta-
tion is likely to be especially
strong if no electorally credible
Democrat enters the fray.
TheMiddkmyi>Okssorsingl
8/11/2019 Can Bernie Win? | Vanguard Press | Mar. 22, 1990
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CAN BERNIE WIN?~ continued from page 5
l iean ran a full 10 points behindGeageBush'sVermontvoteinl988.
"I think Bernie's in terrific
shape this lime," the UVM pun-
dit declares. "II's the most win-nable statewide race he's ever
fun. He's gOI a real good chance,
prov ided no heavyw eight Dem o-
crar gels involved:' (See accom-
pan yin g srory .)
Craig Fuller, director of the
state Democratic Party, mean-while disputes the "media view"
of Smith as a center-left Repub-lican. "His voting record is atro-
cious," Fuller asserts. "He's a
Reagan Republican."
Asked to furnish evidence
for that charge, Fuller cites
Smith's support for moves to
weaken legislation increasing the
minimum wage. The Democrat
strategist also scores the Repub-Iican's refusal to back a transferof funds from the Star W ars
weapons system 10 education
prog rams.
Nelson agrees that Sm ith may
have problems parrying Sanders'
thrusts on economic issues. "limes
aren 't going to be t oo goo d in
Vermont next November," he pre-
dicts. "Ifthe state's in a full-blownrecession by then, that just means
class issues will cut even deeper,"
Despite their differing inter-
pre ta ticn s, most analysts do agreethat theoutcomeof therace hinges
o n t wo fac to rs . F irst, th ey say ,
Sanders needs to win over most
of th e vo ters w ho su pp orted
Democrat Paul Poirier in 1988'sth ree -w ay H ou se con tes t. A nd
lhe Independent challenger must
also im pro ve m ark ed ly o n his
showing two years ago in southern
Vermont counties of Windsor,
Windham and Bennington.
Th e 19 p ercen t o f th e v otc
taken by P oirier c am e m ainly
fro m th re e a re as, D av is n ote s:
the Democrat's home turf of Barre
and neighboring towns, diehard
Democrats in Franklin County,
and b lue-collar sou thern V er-
monters. Davis doubts that Sanders
will do much better among votersin those latter two categories.
Only in central Vermont, he sug-
gests , is the former Burlington
m ayor likely to pick up a m a-
jority of the Poirie r vo te.
Smith did carry Washington
County in 1988, however, partly
because he once represented a
po rtion of that area in the Ver-
mont Legisla ture . Converse ly ,
th ou gh , Fran klin w as o ne o f th e
fiv e cou nties in w hich San de rs
finished first.111e real showdown, then, will
prob ably occu r in the south. Sm ith
won Windsor , Windham and Ben-
n in gto n b y a com bin ed to ta l o f
8,468votes last time, which was more
than his staiewidcrnargin of victory.
Soshanna R ihn , a key Sanders
activist in Brattleboro, believes
h er can did ate w ill d o sub stan -
tia lly better th is time in a t leasttwo of those counties.
"W e're going to m ake sure
w e h av e p eo ple ac tiv e in e ve ry
lawn in Windham and Windsor,"
she says, "It was the small townsthere that ki lled us in 1988."
But Rihn confesses, "I worry
about Bennington. I t's the black
hole of Vermont in term s of
prog ressive activ ism."
Sanders' chances in the south
are not improved by the fact that
Smith mainta ins constituent of-
fices in both Brattleboro and Ben-nington. Residents in both those
communities are a lso generally
beyo nd the rang e of Burlin gton
m ed ia, m ak ing it essential for
Sanders to purchase TV com-
mercials inth e canparatively e x p e n -sive Albany (New York), Spring-f ie ld (Massachusetts) ilnd Man-
chester (New Hampshire) marl;
No discussion s have yetla~'place abou t media bu ys R ih en
B ' I nrc
ports. utshe notes thalSan -
should be able to devote a ' dCrs. Sllabl
share of h is campaign b d C
I
. U getlo
e ec~roOlcadvertising,since"mof his workers arc will ingt hOSthim for free." a clp
A nO lhc r potentially aueial fconcerns Sanders ' und ',m .a e to r
h. In JS e dcommitment to socialism C lb lh . r . ~dI e at sign Iream numbeV ' , " rSofennonters Will JOIO In thew I
id ' , ord.W I e rejection afpoliticiansdiflcd . h h < I en .
1 1 Wit t _at ideology?
Several observers Cc1U llO h. ntalSm i th could commit aserious o rif h .. r o rI e ra rscs th is to pic . A nd t he
congressman's staffers S