8/11/2019 Can Bernie Win? | Vanguard Press | Mar. 22, 1990

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C a n B e r n i e W i n ?BUR L

Tbe above question iscer-tain' 0 beaskedrepeated-ly during the next eight months.Pundits, pols and pollsters in

Vermont will agonize over it inm uch the sam e w ay that their

national counterparts have

wondered, "WhatdocsJessewant?"

The answer, however, seems

fair!yobvious inboth cases. Jacksonwants to be president. And, yes,

Sanders can defeat Republican

incumbent Peter Smith in the race

forV ermont's lone US House seat.But no one, including the

candidates, imagines that eithergoal will be easily attained. In

fact. there are lots of reasons 10

bet on -Smith in the congres-

sional contest.

One of the strongest is that

House incumbents a lmost a lwayswin re-election. In 1988, for ex-

ample, thei r success rate was about

98 percent. And a few of the 20

or so losers probably would havewon, tOO, had tbey no t been in-

volved in scandals of some sort.

Assuming that Smith 's per-

sonal reputation remains untar-

n ished, the race becomes h is 10

lose. Sanders must then over-

come the considerabl e advantages

N Q TON

of incumbency while convinc-

inga majority of voters that Smith'svoting record is oot in their interests.

This is a nearly impossiblc

task, in the opinion of Middle.

bury College political scientist

E ric D avis. "I'd be very sur-

prised if Bernie gets more than

40 percent" of the vote, he says.Davis points to Smith 's con-

stituent-service operation, which

has helped hundreds of Ver-

monters slice their way through

the federal bureaucratic maze.

That assistance gets dispensed

from five offices around the state,each of them located in a major

population center. Sm ith's out.

reach centers, which consume alarge share of his staff budget,also afford the c ongressman a

high degree of political visibility

in these key localities.

In addition, Smith has done

"8 very good job of positioning

himself in the middle of the poli-

tical spectrum," Davis notes.

The incumbent's voting record,

w hich generally fits snugly in

the Jefforcs-Srafford-Alken mold

of moderate V ermont R epub-

licanism, could well persuade many

D emocrats to v ote for S mith,

,....

Davis believes. And thattempta-

tion is likely to be especially

strong if no electorally credible

Democrat enters the fray.

TheMiddkmyi>Okssorsingl

8/11/2019 Can Bernie Win? | Vanguard Press | Mar. 22, 1990

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CAN BERNIE WIN?~ continued from page 5

l iean ran a full 10 points behindGeageBush'sVermontvoteinl988.

"I think Bernie's in terrific

shape this lime," the UVM pun-

dit declares. "II's the most win-nable statewide race he's ever

fun. He's gOI a real good chance,

prov ided no heavyw eight Dem o-

crar gels involved:' (See accom-

pan yin g srory .)

Craig Fuller, director of the

state Democratic Party, mean-while disputes the "media view"

of Smith as a center-left Repub-lican. "His voting record is atro-

cious," Fuller asserts. "He's a

Reagan Republican."

Asked to furnish evidence

for that charge, Fuller cites

Smith's support for moves to

weaken legislation increasing the

minimum wage. The Democrat

strategist also scores the Repub-Iican's refusal to back a transferof funds from the Star W ars

weapons system 10 education

prog rams.

Nelson agrees that Sm ith may

have problems parrying Sanders'

thrusts on economic issues. "limes

aren 't going to be t oo goo d in

Vermont next November," he pre-

dicts. "Ifthe state's in a full-blownrecession by then, that just means

class issues will cut even deeper,"

Despite their differing inter-

pre ta ticn s, most analysts do agreethat theoutcomeof therace hinges

o n t wo fac to rs . F irst, th ey say ,

Sanders needs to win over most

of th e vo ters w ho su pp orted

Democrat Paul Poirier in 1988'sth ree -w ay H ou se con tes t. A nd

lhe Independent challenger must

also im pro ve m ark ed ly o n his

showing two years ago in southern

Vermont counties of Windsor,

Windham and Bennington.

Th e 19 p ercen t o f th e v otc

taken by P oirier c am e m ainly

fro m th re e a re as, D av is n ote s:

the Democrat's home turf of Barre

and neighboring towns, diehard

Democrats in Franklin County,

and b lue-collar sou thern V er-

monters. Davis doubts that Sanders

will do much better among votersin those latter two categories.

Only in central Vermont, he sug-

gests , is the former Burlington

m ayor likely to pick up a m a-

jority of the Poirie r vo te.

Smith did carry Washington

County in 1988, however, partly

because he once represented a

po rtion of that area in the Ver-

mont Legisla ture . Converse ly ,

th ou gh , Fran klin w as o ne o f th e

fiv e cou nties in w hich San de rs

finished first.111e real showdown, then, will

prob ably occu r in the south. Sm ith

won Windsor , Windham and Ben-

n in gto n b y a com bin ed to ta l o f

8,468votes last time, which was more

than his staiewidcrnargin of victory.

Soshanna R ihn , a key Sanders

activist in Brattleboro, believes

h er can did ate w ill d o sub stan -

tia lly better th is time in a t leasttwo of those counties.

"W e're going to m ake sure

w e h av e p eo ple ac tiv e in e ve ry

lawn in Windham and Windsor,"

she says, "It was the small townsthere that ki lled us in 1988."

But Rihn confesses, "I worry

about Bennington. I t's the black

hole of Vermont in term s of

prog ressive activ ism."

Sanders' chances in the south

are not improved by the fact that

Smith mainta ins constituent of-

fices in both Brattleboro and Ben-nington. Residents in both those

communities are a lso generally

beyo nd the rang e of Burlin gton

m ed ia, m ak ing it essential for

Sanders to purchase TV com-

mercials inth e canparatively e x p e n -sive Albany (New York), Spring-f ie ld (Massachusetts) ilnd Man-

chester (New Hampshire) marl;

No discussion s have yetla~'place abou t media bu ys R ih en

B ' I nrc

ports. utshe notes thalSan -

should be able to devote a ' dCrs. Sllabl

share of h is campaign b d C

I

. U getlo

e ec~roOlcadvertising,since"mof his workers arc will ingt hOSthim for free." a clp

A nO lhc r potentially aueial fconcerns Sanders ' und ',m .a e to r

h. In JS e dcommitment to socialism C lb lh . r . ~dI e at sign Iream numbeV ' , " rSofennonters Will JOIO In thew I

id ' , ord.W I e rejection afpoliticiansdiflcd . h h < I en .

1 1 Wit t _at ideology?

Several observers Cc1U llO h. ntalSm i th could commit aserious o rif h .. r o rI e ra rscs th is to pic . A nd t he

congressman's staffers S