Post on 26-Dec-2015
Brigitte Dias FerreiraAACCLA's 47th Annual Meeting and "Forecast on Latin America and the Caribbean" Conference September 29, 2014Washington, DC
Food Security in Latin America
Population & Income Growth
Urbanization & Ecosystem
Impacts
Natural Resource Constraints
Increasing Food
Demand
Agriculture is at the Intersection of Global Challenges – LAC with Critical Role
AGRICULTURE
21st Century Challenge: Produce enough food, feed, fiber and fuel from the same or fewer resources
1950 1975 2000 2025 20500
5
10
More Developed Regions*
Less Developed Regions
Least Developed RegionsPopulation in Billions
9.6B
2014
2050
2.4B
7.2B6.1B
2000
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook; UN, January 2014
40%
49%
4%
7%
-1%
Agriculture is at the Intersection of Global Challenges
By 2050, 80% of the world’s population will live in cities
UN predicts
By 2050, the world’s population will grow by 2.4 billion people
+2.4B
+80%
Water
Land
Labor
ClimateChange
Resource Constraints:
Major Grain Exporter Market Shares Shifting
4
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, August 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
United States Canada EU - 28 Other
1990s Avg 2000s Avg 2010 Avg
0%
3%
5%
8%
10%
Argentina Australia Ukraine Brazil Russia India Kazakhstan
Soy Market Shares Also Shifting
5
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, August 2014
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Share of World Export
Argentina Brazil United States Others
Brazil Gains Preeminence as Global Agriculture Exporter (circa 2000)
• Captures much of global soy trade growth
• Rapidly expands grain, meat, poultry export sales
• 3rd largest agricultural exporter (value) after US and EU
• #1 exporter: coffee, soy, beef, sugar, ethanol and frozen chickens
6
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, August 2014
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0
20
40
60
80
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
MMT
Soy Exports
Grain Exports
Global Soy/Grain Export Share (right axis)
Productivity Growth Must Accelerate to Meet Global Food Challenge
7
Source: Global Harvest Initiative, GAP Report 2010
Global Agricultural Productivity Index™
Measures to Increase Food Security in LAC
8
Partnership between LAC governments and private sector (create an attractive environment for FDIs)
Invest in the future (R&D, innovation, smart-agriculture, right equipment)
Reduce trade barriers, minimize government intervention in markets