Brigitte Dias FerreiraAACCLA's 47th Annual Meeting and "Forecast on Latin America and the Caribbean" Conference September 29, 2014Washington, DC

Food Security in Latin America

Population & Income Growth

Urbanization & Ecosystem

Impacts

Natural Resource Constraints

Increasing Food

Demand

Agriculture is at the Intersection of Global Challenges – LAC with Critical Role

AGRICULTURE

21st Century Challenge: Produce enough food, feed, fiber and fuel from the same or fewer resources

1950 1975 2000 2025 20500

5

10

More Developed Regions*

Less Developed Regions

Least Developed RegionsPopulation in Billions

9.6B

2014

2050

2.4B

7.2B6.1B

2000

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook; UN, January 2014

40%

49%

4%

7%

-1%

Agriculture is at the Intersection of Global Challenges

By 2050, 80% of the world’s population will live in cities

UN predicts

By 2050, the world’s population will grow by 2.4 billion people

+2.4B

+80%

Water

Land

Labor

ClimateChange

Resource Constraints:

Major Grain Exporter Market Shares Shifting

4

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, August 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

United States Canada EU - 28 Other

1990s Avg 2000s Avg 2010 Avg

0%

3%

5%

8%

10%

Argentina Australia Ukraine Brazil Russia India Kazakhstan

Soy Market Shares Also Shifting

5

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, August 2014

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Share of World Export

Argentina Brazil United States Others

Brazil Gains Preeminence as Global Agriculture Exporter (circa 2000)

• Captures much of global soy trade growth

• Rapidly expands grain, meat, poultry export sales

• 3rd largest agricultural exporter (value) after US and EU

• #1 exporter: coffee, soy, beef, sugar, ethanol and frozen chickens

6

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, Official USDA Estimates, August 2014

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014

MMT

Soy Exports

Grain Exports

Global Soy/Grain Export Share (right axis)

Productivity Growth Must Accelerate to Meet Global Food Challenge

7

Source: Global Harvest Initiative, GAP Report 2010

Global Agricultural Productivity Index™

Measures to Increase Food Security in LAC

8

Partnership between LAC governments and private sector (create an attractive environment for FDIs)

Invest in the future (R&D, innovation, smart-agriculture, right equipment)

Reduce trade barriers, minimize government intervention in markets