Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com

Beyond Oil Imagining the Future

Question:Climate Change:

A: It’s a very serious looming crisis

B: Confused; not sure what to make of it

C: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable

Question:Transportation without Oil:

A: Yes, I believe it’s possible

B: I don’t know if it’s possible

C: No, it’s not possible.

Before Oil… Remembering the Past

Four million years of walking

Walking = 4,000,000 yearsVancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km

10,000 years = 1 kilometreThe last 100 years = 10 metres

Petrolia, Ontario1858

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

As we burn the fossil fuels…

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

+ 2˚C rise

The last time the world was 3°C warmer

the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005

Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a dayThe world is consuming 89 million barrels a day

Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves

The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil

10,000 years past

10,000 years future

The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil

Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsEra of Oil: 100 years

10,000 years past

10,000 years future

The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil

Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 100 years

What happens here?

A billion yearsfuture

Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 100 years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giantfor a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Beyond Oil Awakening the Future

BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org

BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which

all of BC’s energy

is green and renewable.

How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%

TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%

Non-transport uses 29%

1 5% shift to walking

Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus

IS IT POSSIBLE?

A 5% shift to walking

The Journey Beyond Oil

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand

2 15% shift to cycling

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools

Vancouver, Howe Street

City Bike Sharing

Electric Bicycles

www.emcyclellc.com

A fun cycling culture

School at Assen, Holland

IS IT POSSIBLE?

15% shift to cycling

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …

3 v15% shift to transit and LRT

Hasselt, BelgiumFree transit, included in city taxes1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership

Real-time electronic displays

Bus shelter in Taiwan

Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment

Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day

1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km

www.opbrid.com

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Japan’s Future Electric Bus

IS IT POSSIBLE?

15% shift to Transit & LRT

LRT in Portland, Oregon

Electric train+ green electricity = no climate impact

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …

4 5% shift to Telework

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems

IS IT POSSIBLE?

5% shift to Telework

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …

5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing

Kijiji

Craigslist

Shareyourride.net

Real-time Ride-sharingwww.car.ma

Guaranteed emergency ride homeCash-out parking – paid for not using employee

parking spaceRideshare Plus Rewards Book

IS IT POSSIBLE?

5% shift to Ridesharing

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …

650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

6 5% shift to Car Sharing

Car-sharing forecast North America 2016:

4.4 million usersDavid Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month

IS IT POSSIBLE?

5% shift to Car-sharing

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …

7 Better Inter-ModalConnections

Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share,

ride-share, ferries, rail

Good transit-ferry connections

Good bike-parking at every transit station

Transport London’s Oyster Card

Walk Bike

Food Help

ParkRide share

Ski-lift

Ferry Fly

Car share

LRTTransit

IS IT POSSIBLE?

Better Inter-ModalConnections

8 Smart Growth

Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri

Metro do Porto, Portugal

IS IT POSSIBLE?

Smart Growth

9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs

80% of average mileage on electric drive

Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas

Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid

795 kg 75km battery range0.9 litres/100 km (260 mpg US)

IS IT POSSIBLE?

50% shift to Hybrid EVs

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric

10 v50% shift to Electric Vehicles

Low Price: Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain 80 kph top speed, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease

In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge

Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV 5 seats Top speed 130 kph 150 km range $25,000 after rebates

Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Smart Electric – 135 km range

Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range

Top price: Tesla EV Model-X 7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear 0-90 kph in 4.4 seconds 300-400 kilomertes range $67,000 plus incentives Delivery in 2014

The KIA Pop: yet to be released

STELLA

Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seaterRoadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,00010 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid

Electric cars, running on green electricity = no climate impact

Honda solar electric car charging

Electric car fast charging

50% fuel reductionMercedes Biome concept car

Ultra-lights

Average car 2,000 kgToyota Prius V 1,485 kgEvonik Elise EV 950 kg

1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year

Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV

1.5 kW solar PV $7,500

3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month

Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

IS IT POSSIBLE?

50% shift to Electric Vehicles

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% …50% of vehicles are electric = 5% …Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% …If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% …

= Beyond Oil

IS IT POSSIBLE?

100% shift to Beyond Oilfor cars & light trucks

Integrated Governance

CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail

Integrated Cost Analysis

$CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail

Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour

Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.

Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping2,000 trips per hour

= 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.

Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km

= 7 to 12 times more cost-effective

Carbon Taxes Feebates Road tolls Utility Public

Service Charges

How can we pay for it all?

Electronic Road Pricing

Road-pricing on the Malahat

30,000 vehicles a day$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day

= 250 luxury coaches= up to 10,000 passengers a day

Electric Freight

Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck

Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg

Cargohopper 3 tonnes max 60 km range 20 kph top speed Urban deliveries Holland

www.cargohopper.com

Freight Solutions - Trucking

Super-efficient designs save 35% Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8% Slower driving saves 8% ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15% Combined innovations could save 60%

But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.

Solar ElectricFreight Tube

Vancouver – San Diego 5 hours

1994 US Federal Highway Administration study

Shipping Solutions

2.5% of global oil use

Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com

The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design

B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and technically viable sailing hybrid cargo ships.

www.b9energy.com

9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay

Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link

Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design

Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50% Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25% Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20% Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20% Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2% Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel

But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.

Flying Solutions

8% of global oil use

Latest designs save 20%

But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.

Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraftSuperconducting electric motors

Paris Airshow, 2011Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours

Renewable Electricity

Renewable Fuel

Biofuel made from… Farm and forest wastes Sewage and urban organic wastes Cultivated algae using waste CO2 Cultivated seaweed

Renewable fuel made from… Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes Green hydrogen Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)

Renewable Fuel

Will there be enough?

Rocky Mountain Institute:with 84% fuel-saving potentialUS demand = 3.1 million barrels a day

USDA-DOE analysis: US farmland could sustainably provide dry collectable biomass wastes = 3 million barrels a day.

Stronger Local Economies

So what’s

The Secret

to make it all happen?

Community engagement

Special Discount

$20 Signed copies

BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org

Together, we can change the world.

To become a BCSEA Memberwww.bcsea.org/join

This whole presentation is available on

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

How can we make it happen?

Questions

Discussion

D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?

Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going??

Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.

The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us

Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion

Number of atoms in your body:

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bangor in a later Supernova explosion

Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion

Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

We are all conscious

Do you have free will to choose your future?

Or is everything predetermined?

You have free will We can make a difference

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com

This is about us, our planet,and our future.

Taken together, our efforts to make a better world are like drops of dew that slowly accumulate in the soul of the world. They hasten the day when the whole Earth,With all its peoples and all its many creatures, will enjoy harmony, fulfillment and peace.

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

Technology

Transcript of Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

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