Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com

Beyond Oil Imagining the Future


Question:Climate Change:

A: It’s a very serious looming crisis

B: Confused; not sure what to make of it

C: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable


Question:Transportation without Oil:

A: Yes, I believe it’s possible

B: I don’t know if it’s possible

C: No, it’s not possible.


Before Oil… Remembering the Past

Four million years of walking


Walking = 4,000,000 yearsVancouver to Kelowna/Kamloops = 400 km

10,000 years = 1 kilometreThe last 100 years = 10 metres


Petrolia, Ontario1858


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

As we burn the fossil fuels…


CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second



+ 2˚C rise


The last time the world was 3°C warmer

the sea level was 25 metres higher


2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres


1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net


3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net


20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com


German Institute for Economic Research and Watkiss et al. 2005



Tar Sands: 1.2 million barrels a dayThe world is consuming 89 million barrels a day


Total carbon in the world’s fossil fuel reserves



The Teeny-Weeny, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil



10,000 years past

10,000 years future

The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil

Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsEra of Oil: 100 years



10,000 years past

10,000 years future

The Teeny-Witzy, Ever-So-Brief Age of Oil

Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 100 years

What happens here?



A billion yearsfuture

Neolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 100 years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giantfor a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years


Beyond Oil Awakening the Future


BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org

BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which

all of BC’s energy

is green and renewable.


How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%

TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%

Non-transport uses 29%


1 5% shift to walking


Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

A 5% shift to walking


The Journey Beyond Oil

Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand


2 15% shift to cycling


In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle


Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools


Vancouver, Howe Street


City Bike Sharing



Electric Bicycles


www.emcyclellc.com


A fun cycling culture


School at Assen, Holland


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

15% shift to cycling



Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …


3 v15% shift to transit and LRT


Hasselt, BelgiumFree transit, included in city taxes1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership


Real-time electronic displays


Bus shelter in Taiwan


Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment


Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day

1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 km

www.opbrid.com


OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Japan’s Future Electric Bus


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

15% shift to Transit & LRT


LRT in Portland, Oregon



Electric train+ green electricity = no climate impact



Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …


4 5% shift to Telework

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

5% shift to Telework



Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …


5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing


Kijiji

Craigslist

Shareyourride.net


Real-time Ride-sharingwww.car.ma


Guaranteed emergency ride homeCash-out parking – paid for not using employee

parking spaceRideshare Plus Rewards Book


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

5% shift to Ridesharing



Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …


See

650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

6 5% shift to Car Sharing


Car-sharing forecast North America 2016:

4.4 million usersDavid Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,


Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

5% shift to Car-sharing



Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …


7 Better Inter-ModalConnections

Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share,

ride-share, ferries, rail

Good transit-ferry connections

Good bike-parking at every transit station


Transport London’s Oyster Card


Walk Bike

Food Help

Taxi

Skype

ParkRide share

Ski-lift

Maps

Ferry Fly

Car share

LRTTransit

Rail


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

Better Inter-ModalConnections


8 Smart Growth


Jamestown Mall Area Plan, St. Louis County, Missouri


Metro do Porto, Portugal


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

Smart Growth


9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs

80% of average mileage on electric drive



Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas


Volkswagen XL1 (1-litre) 2012 Diesel plug-in hybrid

795 kg 75km battery range0.9 litres/100 km (260 mpg US)


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

50% shift to Hybrid EVs



Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric


10 v50% shift to Electric Vehicles


Low Price: Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range, made in Spain 80 kph top speed, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease


In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge

Top


Mid-price: Mitsubishi MiEV 5 seats Top speed 130 kph 150 km range $25,000 after rebates



Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range



Smart Electric – 135 km range



Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range


Top price: Tesla EV Model-X 7 seats. Spacious luggage capacity front & rear 0-90 kph in 4.4 seconds 300-400 kilomertes range $67,000 plus incentives Delivery in 2014


Top

The KIA Pop: yet to be released


STELLA


Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seaterRoadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,00010 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid



Electric cars, running on green electricity = no climate impact



Honda solar electric car charging



Electric car fast charging


50% fuel reductionMercedes Biome concept car

Ultra-lights


Average car 2,000 kgToyota Prius V 1,485 kgEvonik Elise EV 950 kg


1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year

Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV


1.5 kW solar PV $7,500

3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month

Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

50% shift to Electric Vehicles



Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% …50% of vehicles are electric = 5% …Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% …If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% …

= Beyond Oil


IS IT POSSIBLE?

YESNO

MAYBE

100% shift to Beyond Oilfor cars & light trucks


Integrated Governance

CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail


Integrated Cost Analysis

$CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail

$


Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour



Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective



Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.



Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping2,000 trips per hour

= 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.

Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km

= 7 to 12 times more cost-effective


Carbon Taxes Feebates Road tolls Utility Public

Service Charges

How can we pay for it all?


Electronic Road Pricing


Road-pricing on the Malahat


30,000 vehicles a day$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day

= 250 luxury coaches= up to 10,000 passengers a day


Electric Freight

Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck

Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg


Cargohopper 3 tonnes max 60 km range 20 kph top speed Urban deliveries Holland

www.cargohopper.com


Freight Solutions - Trucking

Super-efficient designs save 35% Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8% Slower driving saves 8% ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15% Combined innovations could save 60%

But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.


Solar ElectricFreight Tube

Vancouver – San Diego 5 hours

1994 US Federal Highway Administration study


Shipping Solutions

2.5% of global oil use


Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com


The Maltese Falcon: Advanced Square Rigger Sail Design


B9 Shipping: 100% renewably powered commercially and technically viable sailing hybrid cargo ships.

www.b9energy.com


9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay

Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link

Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design


Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50% Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25% Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20% Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20% Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2% Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel

But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.


Flying Solutions

8% of global oil use

Latest designs save 20%

But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.


Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraftSuperconducting electric motors

Paris Airshow, 2011Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours


Renewable Electricity


Renewable Fuel

Biofuel made from… Farm and forest wastes Sewage and urban organic wastes Cultivated algae using waste CO2 Cultivated seaweed

Renewable fuel made from… Carbon monoxide and industrial wastes Green hydrogen Green methanol (hydrogen and waste CO2)


Renewable Fuel

Will there be enough?

Rocky Mountain Institute:with 84% fuel-saving potentialUS demand = 3.1 million barrels a day

USDA-DOE analysis: US farmland could sustainably provide dry collectable biomass wastes = 3 million barrels a day.


Stronger Local Economies


So what’s

The Secret

to make it all happen?


Community engagement


Special Discount

$20 Signed copies


BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org

Together, we can change the world.

To become a BCSEA Memberwww.bcsea.org/join


This whole presentation is available on

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey


How can we make it happen?

Questions

Discussion



D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?

Where Do We Come From? What Are We? Where Are We Going??


Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.



The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us



Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion



Number of atoms in your body:

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole



Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bangor in a later Supernova explosion



Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion



Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole



100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars



We are all conscious



Do you have free will to choose your future?

Or is everything predetermined?



You have free will We can make a difference

Guy Dauncey 2013 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com



This is about us, our planet,and our future.


Taken together, our efforts to make a better world are like drops of dew that slowly accumulate in the soul of the world. They hasten the day when the whole Earth,With all its peoples and all its many creatures, will enjoy harmony, fulfillment and peace.



Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future

Technology

Transcript of Beyond Oil: Imagining the Future