Post on 26-May-2020
Autonomous vehicle
A story in 2 phases
Patrick Koller
Chief Executive Officer
Autonomous vehicles
2
Trends and definitions1
The 2 deployment phases 2
The maturation phase3
The efficiency phase4
5 Material efficiency summary
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Autonomous vehicles
3
Trends and definitions1
The 2 deployment phases 2
The maturation phase3
The efficiency phase4
5 Material efficiency summary
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Shared mobility (MaaS)
Connected services & data
ADAS & Autonomous driving
Liability: Secure, Safe & Trustworthy
Electrified mobility
Upgrade on demand
Personalized vehicles
Overview of Mega-Trends driving Automotive industry future evolution
MOBILITY
Individualism & freedom
Aging population
Women empowerment
Millennials aspirations
SOCIETY
I
4World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Rising Asia
Income disparities
Environmental issues
Growing urbanization
CONSUMERS
Looking for protection Experience & well-being Socially-conscious Affordability
Trends and definitions
Mobility industry is at a turning point and need to SCALE-UP
New business models and services
Multiplication of mobility solutions
Security, safety and trust concerns
Complex technologies creating opportunities but raising concerns
SHARED MOBILITY CONNECTED SERVICES ADAS & AUTONOMOUS FULL LIABILITY
Increased electrification
Increasing demand for personalization
Over-the-air activation of new functionalities
ELECTRIFIED MOBILITY UPGRADE ON DEMAND ULTRA-PERSONALIZED
5World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Trends and definitionsDifferent levels of autonomy are driving the development of autonomous vehicles
5 autonomy levels
defined
Level of autonomy
depending on ADAS
(Advanced Driving
Assistance Systems)
Level 3 being critical
as driving is shared
between the car and
the driver
6
No automation
Driver
assistance
Partial automation
Conditional
automation
High automation
Longitudinal
or transverse guide
Longitudinal
or transverse guide
Take over requestNo take over request
Full automation
No driver
LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL
Hands off
Mind off
Hands off
Driver off
Hands off
Eyes offHands temp off
Hands on
Eyes on
Hands on
Eyes on
Ex Highway Ex City (Ride sharing)
HUMAN MACHINE
0 1 2 3 4 5LEVEL
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Trends and definitionsDifferent approaches between public and private transport
1 2 3 4 5
Op
era
tio
na
rea
Unlimited
Limited
TargetFULL
AUTONOMY
Full autonomyon certain routes
LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL
Car industry path
Comfort features for private cars
Public transport path
Business model
for urban mobility
service providers
Public transport starting with full autonomy
but in limited areas and progressively
deploying in more demanding areas
Car industry starting with limited autonomy
but on wider areas and progressively
increasing the level of autonomy
7World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Autonomous vehicles
8
Trends and definitions1
The 2 deployment phases 2
The maturation phase3
The efficiency phase4
5 Material efficiency summary
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
2 phases to make autonomous vehicle happen in mass production
on the market
2025/20302010/2015
9
2040/2045
Material costEnergy
f(Techno, Volumes, Acceptance…)
MATURATION/ LEARNING PHASE EFFICIENCY PHASE
Specifications /
Regulations
Technical content /
product cost
Tests
Investments
Material
Life cycle
Energy
CO2
Costs
Fatalities
Health
L4/L5 time line
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
The autonomous vehicle level 5 is at the euphoric phase
whereas level 4 is at the reality phase
10 As of July 2018
HYPE CYCLE FOR EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, 2018
Exp
ec
tatio
ns
Innovation trigger
Peak of inflated
expectationsTrough of disillusioment Slope of enlightenment Plateau of productivity
Plateau will be reached in :
Less than 2 years
2 to 5 years
5 to 10 years
More than 10 years
Augmented reality
xx reality
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING LEVEL 4
Connected home
Blockchain
Silicon anode batteries
Virtual assistants
loT platform
Carbon xxxDeep xxx
Digital tween
Bioships
Smart workspace
Brain-computer interface
Autonomous mobile robots
Smart robotsDeep neural networks ASICs
AI Paas
Quantum computing
Volumetric displays
Self heating system technology
Conversational AI platform
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING LEVEL 5
5G
Edge AI
Blockchain for data security
Neuroxxx hardware
Knowledge graphsHuman augmentation
4D printing
Artificial general intelligence
Smart dust
Flying autonomous vehicles
Biotech – cultured xx artificial tissue
Time
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Autonomous vehicles
11
Trends and definitions1
The 2 deployment phases 2
The maturation phase3
The efficiency phase4
5 Material efficiency summary
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Regulation and policies
Still a lot of activities to be done and at international level
DRIVING
PRODUCTS
CITIES
POLICY
UP TO 2025 2030/2040
L3 : adapted regulation for time for driver
back in the loop situation
L4 for dedicated areas : specific regulation
for shifted vehicle control
Regulation without driver expected in 2030
Global vehicle conformity definition: certification?
International standards defined for road
infrastructures
Roads
New dedicated regulation and insurance border.
Responsibility of OEM to be defined in line
with simulation validation
Will adapt traffic rules in shuttles areas
to encourage inter-modality
without personal car
May limit penetration
of non autonomous vehicles
Most probably a supervision, not always continuous, will become mandatory
12World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
The maturation phase
Challenging affordability for L4/L5 passenger cars
Sensors
Computation and data exchange challenges for L4/L5
Sensors L3 L4 L5
Front camera 1 to 2 1 to 2 1 to 2
360 camera 2 to 6 2 to 6
Radar 1 2 to 3 2 to 3
Lidar 1 4 to 6 4 to 6
US sensors 10 10 10
Inertia central 1 1
COSTS OF THE TECHNOLOGY
FOR PASSENGER CAR AND SHUTTLE (€)
TECHNOLOGY
Simplified electronic architectures
Artificial intelligence to be deployed
Computing power at the edge : 3000 to 5000 TOPS
(Trillion Operations Per Second)
Cyber security will be mandatory
5G to be deployed for V2X
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Today 2025 2035
13
L4 shuttleL4 pass carL3
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
MILES AND COUNTINGPILOT IN SIMPLE URBAN AREAS LIKE PHOENIX, ARIZONA
Source: Public information, Press review
2 years behind Waymo
Tests in complex roads
such as San Francisco roads
Falling behind competitors
with road tests stopped
Program stopped
after fatal incident
+2,500Chevrolet Bolt, >2019
Frozen
+24 000 (planned)Volvo XC90, 2019-2021
600
Chrysler Pacifica
+62,000
Chrysler Pacifica, 2019
+20,000
Jaguar i-PACE, 2020
1.8M
1.7M
1.6M
1.5M
1.4M
1.3M
1.3M
1.1M
0M
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
8MJuly 2018
7MJune 2018
6MApril 2018
5MFeb 2018
4MNov 2017
3MMay 2017
2MOct 2016
1MJune 2015
14
The maturation phaseRobocabs first…but with specific infrastructures, remote control and regulations
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
The maturation phase
Electric vehicle & his eco-system will progressively be available on the market
BEV offer will continuously increase
Around 800GWh of battery production
will be necessary by 2030
which represents around €100bn investments
Plugs
1 public plug for less than 10 vehicles means around 6,5 million charging points
by 2030 and €40bn investment
Power mix between slow charging (<22kW) and fast charging (>22kW)
181
270328
464516
2018 2019 2020 20302025
+35%
BEV LV MODEL OFFER
15World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
MARKET ASSESSMENTAV SALES FORECAST-PRUDENT SCENARIO
The maturation phase
High uncertainty on volumes
In % of total vehicle sales, 2018-2040
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2018 2025 2030 2035 2040
L5 L4 L3 L1/2 L0
4%
12%
22%
15%
18%
12%
21%
20%
23%
34%
2%
2%
11%
2%
3%
9%
5%
13%
11%
13%
Crédit Suisse (01/2018)
Evercore ISI (05/2017)
14%
Morgan Stanley (03/2019)
F&S (03/2018)
Accenture (03/19)
33%
UK Council (07/2017)
BCG (04/2018)
PwC (07/2017)
Continental (01/2018)
6%
33%
17%
21%
21%
26%
47%
34%
Magna (03/2019)
Level 3 forecast between 4 and 34%
Level 4 (completely autonomous
in certain situations)
Level 3 (able to re-engage at all times)
16
Level 4 forecast between 2 and 13%
2030
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Autonomous vehicles
17
Trends and definitions1
The 2 deployment phases 2
The maturation phase3
The efficiency phase4
5 Material efficiency summary
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Long term benefits of electric autonomous vehicle
Consumer and environment
5 to 10
times
less
fatalities
Shared
mobility
can lead
to divide by 2
the emissions
in urban areas
More time
during
journey
Mobility
access
to desabled
or elder
people
Medical costs
decrease
due to better
air quality
More mobility
freedom
due to cost
decrease
With driver(2018)
Robocab(2030)
0.74
2.50
Green House
Gas
improvement
20252015
11.4
38.9
2018
RidesharingCarsharing
CAGR18-25
+19.2%
-70%
18World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
EFFICIENCY PHASE
Long term benefits of electric autonomous vehicle
Material: less, smarter, longer
Higher
utilization
rate leads
to drop in
automotive
productionLife Cycle
Assessment
will drastically
improve
versus gasoline
if green
electricity
200kg saving
in average
if autonomous
vehicle
due to accident
avoidance
Powertrain
life time
increased
and
maintenance
free
15% less
energy
consumption
in urban areas
thanks to traffic
management
20402019 2025
93.6104.0
75-85
19World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
EFFICIENCY PHASE
Autonomous vehicles
20
Trends and definitions1
The 2 deployment phases 2
The maturation phase3
The efficiency phase4
5 Material efficiency summary
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019
Autonomous vehicleMaterial efficiency summary
Autonomous vehicle is driving a lot of societal and consumer expectations
The technical maturity is not reached and optimizations are needed to make automated vehicles affordable
Life Cycle Assessment of production phase and end of life of electric vehicles must be improved and
recycling/circular economy will have to be deployed for environmental /economical aspects
21
Huge potential material saving due to
- Higher utilization rate of the vehicle
and mobility sharing leading to a
major production drop
- Better traffic management and
collision avoidances
Materials are getting smarter
and smarter which leads
to product optimization
but recycling remains
a challenge
Mobility with electric autonomous
and shared cars could change
the business models and increase
the lifetime of the vehicles
through reshuffling
LESS SMARTER LONGER
World Materials Forum – June14, 2019