Autonomous vehicle Patrick Koller A story in 2 phases ......2010/2015 2025/2030 9 2040/2045 Material...

Autonomous vehicle

A story in 2 phases

Patrick Koller

Chief Executive Officer

Autonomous vehicles

2

Trends and definitions1

The 2 deployment phases 2

The maturation phase3

The efficiency phase4

5 Material efficiency summary

World Materials Forum – June14, 2019

Autonomous vehicles

3







Shared mobility (MaaS)

Connected services & data

ADAS & Autonomous driving

Liability: Secure, Safe & Trustworthy

Electrified mobility

Upgrade on demand

Personalized vehicles

Overview of Mega-Trends driving Automotive industry future evolution

MOBILITY

Individualism & freedom

Aging population

Women empowerment

Millennials aspirations

SOCIETY

I

4World Materials Forum – June14, 2019

Rising Asia

Income disparities

Environmental issues

Growing urbanization

CONSUMERS

Looking for protection Experience & well-being Socially-conscious Affordability

Trends and definitions

Mobility industry is at a turning point and need to SCALE-UP

New business models and services

Multiplication of mobility solutions

Security, safety and trust concerns

Complex technologies creating opportunities but raising concerns

SHARED MOBILITY CONNECTED SERVICES ADAS & AUTONOMOUS FULL LIABILITY

Increased electrification

Increasing demand for personalization

Over-the-air activation of new functionalities

ELECTRIFIED MOBILITY UPGRADE ON DEMAND ULTRA-PERSONALIZED


Trends and definitionsDifferent levels of autonomy are driving the development of autonomous vehicles

5 autonomy levels

defined

Level of autonomy

depending on ADAS

(Advanced Driving

Assistance Systems)

Level 3 being critical

as driving is shared

between the car and

the driver

6

No automation

Driver

assistance

Partial automation

Conditional

automation

High automation

Longitudinal

or transverse guide

Longitudinal

or transverse guide

Take over requestNo take over request

Full automation

No driver

LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL

Hands off

Mind off

Hands off

Driver off

Hands off

Eyes offHands temp off

Hands on

Eyes on

Hands on

Eyes on

Ex Highway Ex City (Ride sharing)

HUMAN MACHINE

0 1 2 3 4 5LEVEL


Trends and definitionsDifferent approaches between public and private transport

1 2 3 4 5

Op

era

tio

na

rea

Unlimited

Limited

TargetFULL

AUTONOMY

Full autonomyon certain routes

LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL LEVEL

Car industry path

Comfort features for private cars

Public transport path

Business model

for urban mobility

service providers

Public transport starting with full autonomy

but in limited areas and progressively

deploying in more demanding areas

Car industry starting with limited autonomy

but on wider areas and progressively

increasing the level of autonomy


Autonomous vehicles

8







2 phases to make autonomous vehicle happen in mass production

on the market

2025/20302010/2015

9

2040/2045

Material costEnergy

f(Techno, Volumes, Acceptance…)

MATURATION/ LEARNING PHASE EFFICIENCY PHASE

Specifications /

Regulations

Technical content /

product cost

Tests

Investments

Material

Life cycle

Energy

CO2

Costs

Fatalities

Health

L4/L5 time line


The autonomous vehicle level 5 is at the euphoric phase

whereas level 4 is at the reality phase

10 As of July 2018

HYPE CYCLE FOR EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES, 2018

Exp

ec

tatio

ns

Innovation trigger

Peak of inflated

expectationsTrough of disillusioment Slope of enlightenment Plateau of productivity

Plateau will be reached in :

Less than 2 years

2 to 5 years

5 to 10 years

More than 10 years

Augmented reality

xx reality

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING LEVEL 4

Connected home

Blockchain

Silicon anode batteries

Virtual assistants

loT platform

Carbon xxxDeep xxx

Digital tween

Bioships

Smart workspace

Brain-computer interface

Autonomous mobile robots

Smart robotsDeep neural networks ASICs

AI Paas

Quantum computing

Volumetric displays

Self heating system technology

Conversational AI platform

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING LEVEL 5

5G

Edge AI

Blockchain for data security

Neuroxxx hardware

Knowledge graphsHuman augmentation

4D printing

Artificial general intelligence

Smart dust

Flying autonomous vehicles

Biotech – cultured xx artificial tissue

Time


Autonomous vehicles

11







Regulation and policies

Still a lot of activities to be done and at international level

DRIVING

PRODUCTS

CITIES

POLICY

UP TO 2025 2030/2040

L3 : adapted regulation for time for driver

back in the loop situation

L4 for dedicated areas : specific regulation

for shifted vehicle control

Regulation without driver expected in 2030

Global vehicle conformity definition: certification?

International standards defined for road

infrastructures

Roads

New dedicated regulation and insurance border.

Responsibility of OEM to be defined in line

with simulation validation

Will adapt traffic rules in shuttles areas

to encourage inter-modality

without personal car

May limit penetration

of non autonomous vehicles

Most probably a supervision, not always continuous, will become mandatory


The maturation phase

Challenging affordability for L4/L5 passenger cars

Sensors

Computation and data exchange challenges for L4/L5

Sensors L3 L4 L5

Front camera 1 to 2 1 to 2 1 to 2

360 camera 2 to 6 2 to 6

Radar 1 2 to 3 2 to 3

Lidar 1 4 to 6 4 to 6

US sensors 10 10 10

Inertia central 1 1

COSTS OF THE TECHNOLOGY

FOR PASSENGER CAR AND SHUTTLE (€)

TECHNOLOGY

Simplified electronic architectures

Artificial intelligence to be deployed

Computing power at the edge : 3000 to 5000 TOPS

(Trillion Operations Per Second)

Cyber security will be mandatory

5G to be deployed for V2X

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Today 2025 2035

13

L4 shuttleL4 pass carL3


MILES AND COUNTINGPILOT IN SIMPLE URBAN AREAS LIKE PHOENIX, ARIZONA

Source: Public information, Press review

2 years behind Waymo

Tests in complex roads

such as San Francisco roads

Falling behind competitors

with road tests stopped

Program stopped

after fatal incident

+2,500Chevrolet Bolt, >2019

Frozen

+24 000 (planned)Volvo XC90, 2019-2021

600

Chrysler Pacifica

+62,000

Chrysler Pacifica, 2019

+20,000

Jaguar i-PACE, 2020

1.8M

1.7M

1.6M

1.5M

1.4M

1.3M

1.3M

1.1M

0M

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

8MJuly 2018

7MJune 2018

6MApril 2018

5MFeb 2018

4MNov 2017

3MMay 2017

2MOct 2016

1MJune 2015

14

The maturation phaseRobocabs first…but with specific infrastructures, remote control and regulations



Electric vehicle & his eco-system will progressively be available on the market

BEV offer will continuously increase

Around 800GWh of battery production

will be necessary by 2030

which represents around €100bn investments

Plugs

1 public plug for less than 10 vehicles means around 6,5 million charging points

by 2030 and €40bn investment

Power mix between slow charging (<22kW) and fast charging (>22kW)

181

270328

464516

2018 2019 2020 20302025

+35%

BEV LV MODEL OFFER


MARKET ASSESSMENTAV SALES FORECAST-PRUDENT SCENARIO


High uncertainty on volumes

In % of total vehicle sales, 2018-2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2018 2025 2030 2035 2040

L5 L4 L3 L1/2 L0

4%

12%

22%

15%

18%

12%

21%

20%

23%

34%

2%

2%

11%

2%

3%

9%

5%

13%

11%

13%

Crédit Suisse (01/2018)

Evercore ISI (05/2017)

14%

Morgan Stanley (03/2019)

F&S (03/2018)

Accenture (03/19)

33%

UK Council (07/2017)

BCG (04/2018)

PwC (07/2017)

Continental (01/2018)

6%

33%

17%

21%

21%

26%

47%

34%

Magna (03/2019)

Level 3 forecast between 4 and 34%

Level 4 (completely autonomous

in certain situations)

Level 3 (able to re-engage at all times)

16

Level 4 forecast between 2 and 13%

2030


Autonomous vehicles

17







Long term benefits of electric autonomous vehicle

Consumer and environment

5 to 10

times

less

fatalities

Shared

mobility

can lead

to divide by 2

the emissions

in urban areas

More time

during

journey

Mobility

access

to desabled

or elder

people

Medical costs

decrease

due to better

air quality

More mobility

freedom

due to cost

decrease

With driver(2018)

Robocab(2030)

0.74

2.50

Green House

Gas

improvement

20252015

11.4

38.9

2018

RidesharingCarsharing

CAGR18-25

+19.2%

-70%


EFFICIENCY PHASE

Long term benefits of electric autonomous vehicle

Material: less, smarter, longer

Higher

utilization

rate leads

to drop in

automotive

productionLife Cycle

Assessment

will drastically

improve

versus gasoline

if green

electricity

200kg saving

in average

if autonomous

vehicle

due to accident

avoidance

Powertrain

life time

increased

and

maintenance

free

15% less

energy

consumption

in urban areas

thanks to traffic

management

20402019 2025

93.6104.0

75-85


EFFICIENCY PHASE

Autonomous vehicles

20







Autonomous vehicleMaterial efficiency summary

Autonomous vehicle is driving a lot of societal and consumer expectations

The technical maturity is not reached and optimizations are needed to make automated vehicles affordable

Life Cycle Assessment of production phase and end of life of electric vehicles must be improved and

recycling/circular economy will have to be deployed for environmental /economical aspects

21

Huge potential material saving due to

- Higher utilization rate of the vehicle

and mobility sharing leading to a

major production drop

- Better traffic management and

collision avoidances

Materials are getting smarter

and smarter which leads

to product optimization

but recycling remains

a challenge

Mobility with electric autonomous

and shared cars could change

the business models and increase

the lifetime of the vehicles

through reshuffling

LESS SMARTER LONGER


Autonomous vehicle Patrick Koller A story in 2 phases ......2010/2015 2025/2030 9 2040/2045 Material...

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