Professor  Harry  T.  Dimitriou  Director,  OMEGA  Centre  Bartle4  School  of  Planning  University  College  London  Mee3ng  of  the  Minds  2013  SpotlighAng  innovaAons  in  urban  sustainability  and  connected  technology.    September  9,  10  &  11,  2013  Evergreen  Brick  Works,  Toronto  

‘SUCCESS’ : A MOVING TARGET!

 

  The  OMEGA  Centre:    

 1of  8  VREF  Global  Centres  of  Excellence  in  field  of  the    Future  of  Urban  Transport.  

  Mission:      To  establish  what  consAtutes  a  ‘successful’  Mega  Transport  Project  (MTP)  in  the  21st  Century  

  Focus:      Stakeholder  decision-­‐making  in  the  planning,  appraisal  and  delivery  of  MTPs  

SETTING THE SCENE: BACKGROUND

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  5-­‐year  study  of  30  MTPs  in  10  countries:      Europe,  Asia,  North  America  and  Australia  funded  by  VREF    

   300  interviews  with  key  decision-­‐makers  and  other  stakeholders:  

 including  the  use  of  ‘storytelling’    

  Completed  in  2011:      outputs  include  a  suite  of  50  generic  lessons  covering  project  planning,  appraisal  and  delivery  

SETTING THE SCENE: STUDY SCOPE

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  MTPs  as  ‘Agents  of  Change    MTPs  as  ‘Open  Systems’    MTPs  as  ‘Organic  Phenomena’    The  Framing  of  MTPs    The  ‘Power  of  Context’    The  Role  of  Sustainable  Development  Visions    Engaging  with  MTP  Stakeholders    InsAtuAonal  Policy  and  LegislaAve  Support    Lesson  Learning  and  Sharing  

SETTING THE SCENE: 9 LESSONS

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  Most  MTPs  evolve  considerably  over  3me  and  thus  need  to  be  understood    as    dynamic  phenomena.  

  MTPs  are  less  fixed  engineering  artefacts  and  more  organic  adap3ve  systems:        with  fuzzy  boundaries  that  respond  to  changing  contexts  over  Ame/space.  

MTPS AS ‘ORGANIC PHENOMENA’

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  Changing  demands  on  MTPs  make  it  excrucia1ngly  difficult  to  judge  their  success/failure:      so  that  yesterday's  ‘failures’  can  become  tomorrow's  ‘successes’    (and  vice  versa).      

   Project  stakeholders  oTen  have  fundamentally  different  expecta3ons  of  

MTPs:      with  percepAons  of  ‘success’/‘failure’  being  highly  individual  and  capable  of  appreciable  change.  

MTPS AS ‘ORGANIC PHENOMENA’

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  MTP  goals  and  objec3ves  are  not  always  clear  at  the  outset  and  oTen  change  over  3me.  

  Such  projects  frequently  aWract  ‘piggy-­‐back’  developments  and  some3mes  spawn  addi3onal  megaprojects.    

THE FRAMING OF MTPS

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  ‘Iron  Triangle’  project  management  concerns  of  on-­‐3me,  on-­‐cost  and  specifica3on  adherence  provide  only  a  par3al  basis  for  judging  project  ‘success’:      yet  dominate  their  narraAve  and  rhetoric.    

   Few  OMEGA’s  case  studies  showed  unacceptable  returns  in  terms  of  

‘Iron  Triangle’  concerns:        average  cost  overrun  was  22%;  only  1  project  was  found  to  have  exceeded  its  original  budget  by  100%,  half  the  projects  were  delivered  either  on-­‐Ame  or  less  than  1  year  behind  schedule;  and  75%  of  13  projects  achieved  100%  of  their  ‘emergent  objecAves.  

THE FRAMING OF MTPS

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SELECTED QUOTATIONS

 “I  don’t  think  anyone  would  argue  that  the  tunnel  shouldn’t  have  been  built,  and  in  five  or  ten  years  Cme  who’s  going  to  care.    Remember  the  old  saying  that  goes  something  like  this:  people  in  the  present  always  complain  about  money  and  costs  and  financial  issues,  but  in  the  long  run  they  remember  the  vision  but  they  forget  the  costs”.        

             (Australia,  Sydney  Cross  City  Tunnel)  

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 “  …  if  there  had  been  a  vision  it  would  have  been  counter-­‐cultural  and  so  the  press  and  opposiCon  would  have  undermined  it.    The  vision  would  have  affected  more  money,  so  it  would  have  been  open  to  criCcism  by  the  economists  and  Treasury.    There  would  have  been  marginal  seats  affected,  the  opposiCon  trying  to  win  or  hold  these  seats  would  have  been  against  it.    The  media  would  have  said  ‘it’s  expensive  and  there  is  inadequate  payback,  and  that  there  are  other  ways’  –  so  the  whole  vision  thing  would  have  been  eaten  into.    Whatever  this  country  does  (in  terms  of  vision)  you  can  be  sure  the  rats  will  get  at  it!”    

 (UK  –  Channel  Tunnel  Rail  Link  –[HS1])  

 

SELECTED QUOTATIONS

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  MTP   planning   and   delivery   agents   need   to   understand   ‘sound’  judgements   about   the   ‘success’   (or   otherwise)   of   projects   are   aWained  when  presented  to  stakeholders  in  a  transparent  manner:    

           that  lays  out  all  key  financial  and  non-­‐financial  costs/benefits  side-­‐by-­‐side.  

  Important   costs   and   benefits   of  MTPs   can   accrue   outside   their   formal  boundary  and/or  the  transport  sector:     with   some   ulCmately   becoming   more   important   than   the   costs   and  benefits  experienced  within  the  project.    

REQUIRED RESPONSES

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  This   call   for   the   broader   framing   of   MTPs   from   the   outset   is   best  supported   by   mul3-­‐criteria   (MCA)   planning   and   appraisal   frameworks  and  aWendant  processes  that  are:  o  policy-­‐led      o  sensiCve  to  contextual  changes  and  uncertainCes    o  ‘open  systems’  in  character      o  capable  of  viewing  MTPs  as  subject  to  change  over  Cme    o  capable  of  also  appreciaCng  that  MTPs  change  the  contexts  into  which  

they  are  placed    o  dealing   with   many   project   outcomes   that   are   difficult   to   idenAfy  

precisely,  much  less  quanAfy.    

REQUIRED RESPONSES

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THANK YOU THANK YOU

Professor  Harry  T.  Dimitriou  Director,  OMEGA  Centre  Bartle4  School  of  Planning  University  College  London  

Mee3ng  of  the  Minds  2013  SpotlighAng  innovaAons  in  urban    sustainability  and  connected  technology.  September  9,  10  &  11,  2013  Evergreen  Brick  Works,  Toronto  

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