‘SUCCESS’ : A MOVING...
Transcript of ‘SUCCESS’ : A MOVING...
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Professor Harry T. Dimitriou Director, OMEGA Centre Bartle4 School of Planning University College London Mee3ng of the Minds 2013 SpotlighAng innovaAons in urban sustainability and connected technology. September 9, 10 & 11, 2013 Evergreen Brick Works, Toronto
‘SUCCESS’ : A MOVING TARGET!
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The OMEGA Centre:
1of 8 VREF Global Centres of Excellence in field of the Future of Urban Transport.
Mission: To establish what consAtutes a ‘successful’ Mega Transport Project (MTP) in the 21st Century
Focus: Stakeholder decision-‐making in the planning, appraisal and delivery of MTPs
SETTING THE SCENE: BACKGROUND
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5-‐year study of 30 MTPs in 10 countries: Europe, Asia, North America and Australia funded by VREF
300 interviews with key decision-‐makers and other stakeholders:
including the use of ‘storytelling’
Completed in 2011: outputs include a suite of 50 generic lessons covering project planning, appraisal and delivery
SETTING THE SCENE: STUDY SCOPE
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MTPs as ‘Agents of Change MTPs as ‘Open Systems’ MTPs as ‘Organic Phenomena’ The Framing of MTPs The ‘Power of Context’ The Role of Sustainable Development Visions Engaging with MTP Stakeholders InsAtuAonal Policy and LegislaAve Support Lesson Learning and Sharing
SETTING THE SCENE: 9 LESSONS
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Most MTPs evolve considerably over 3me and thus need to be understood as dynamic phenomena.
MTPs are less fixed engineering artefacts and more organic adap3ve systems: with fuzzy boundaries that respond to changing contexts over Ame/space.
MTPS AS ‘ORGANIC PHENOMENA’
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Changing demands on MTPs make it excrucia1ngly difficult to judge their success/failure: so that yesterday's ‘failures’ can become tomorrow's ‘successes’ (and vice versa).
Project stakeholders oTen have fundamentally different expecta3ons of
MTPs: with percepAons of ‘success’/‘failure’ being highly individual and capable of appreciable change.
MTPS AS ‘ORGANIC PHENOMENA’
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MTP goals and objec3ves are not always clear at the outset and oTen change over 3me.
Such projects frequently aWract ‘piggy-‐back’ developments and some3mes spawn addi3onal megaprojects.
THE FRAMING OF MTPS
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‘Iron Triangle’ project management concerns of on-‐3me, on-‐cost and specifica3on adherence provide only a par3al basis for judging project ‘success’: yet dominate their narraAve and rhetoric.
Few OMEGA’s case studies showed unacceptable returns in terms of
‘Iron Triangle’ concerns: average cost overrun was 22%; only 1 project was found to have exceeded its original budget by 100%, half the projects were delivered either on-‐Ame or less than 1 year behind schedule; and 75% of 13 projects achieved 100% of their ‘emergent objecAves.
THE FRAMING OF MTPS
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SELECTED QUOTATIONS
“I don’t think anyone would argue that the tunnel shouldn’t have been built, and in five or ten years Cme who’s going to care. Remember the old saying that goes something like this: people in the present always complain about money and costs and financial issues, but in the long run they remember the vision but they forget the costs”.
(Australia, Sydney Cross City Tunnel)
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“ … if there had been a vision it would have been counter-‐cultural and so the press and opposiCon would have undermined it. The vision would have affected more money, so it would have been open to criCcism by the economists and Treasury. There would have been marginal seats affected, the opposiCon trying to win or hold these seats would have been against it. The media would have said ‘it’s expensive and there is inadequate payback, and that there are other ways’ – so the whole vision thing would have been eaten into. Whatever this country does (in terms of vision) you can be sure the rats will get at it!”
(UK – Channel Tunnel Rail Link –[HS1])
SELECTED QUOTATIONS
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MTP planning and delivery agents need to understand ‘sound’ judgements about the ‘success’ (or otherwise) of projects are aWained when presented to stakeholders in a transparent manner:
that lays out all key financial and non-‐financial costs/benefits side-‐by-‐side.
Important costs and benefits of MTPs can accrue outside their formal boundary and/or the transport sector: with some ulCmately becoming more important than the costs and benefits experienced within the project.
REQUIRED RESPONSES
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This call for the broader framing of MTPs from the outset is best supported by mul3-‐criteria (MCA) planning and appraisal frameworks and aWendant processes that are: o policy-‐led o sensiCve to contextual changes and uncertainCes o ‘open systems’ in character o capable of viewing MTPs as subject to change over Cme o capable of also appreciaCng that MTPs change the contexts into which
they are placed o dealing with many project outcomes that are difficult to idenAfy
precisely, much less quanAfy.
REQUIRED RESPONSES
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THANK YOU THANK YOU
Professor Harry T. Dimitriou Director, OMEGA Centre Bartle4 School of Planning University College London
Mee3ng of the Minds 2013 SpotlighAng innovaAons in urban sustainability and connected technology. September 9, 10 & 11, 2013 Evergreen Brick Works, Toronto
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