Asia-Pacific Telecommunications in Facts and Figures

Pan-AsianTelecommunicationsSummit ‘93

Michael Minges

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Asia-Pacific in the World

Source: ITU, UN.

1991

World population World telephone lines

Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Regional telecoms growth

Telephone linesAverage annual growth %

1983-92

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Disparities in Telecom Development

Note: OECD = Australia, Japan and New ZealandUpper Income = Brunei, French Polynesia, Guam, HongkongSouth Korea, Macau, New Caledonia, Singapore and TaiwanLow income = 26 other countries.Source: ITU.

Low-income

Low-income

OECD

OECD

High-income

High-income

Population distribution Telephone line distribution

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Teledensity

Note: Each bar represents one country.Source: ITU.

Asia-Pacific, 1992

“Main telephone lines per 100 people”

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Lorenz Curve

Source: ITU, UN.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Telecom & economic development

Region average

Better offtelecom-wisethan expected

Worse offtelecom-wisethan expected

Source: ITU, World Bank.

1991

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Money doesn’t explain everything

Source: ITU.

Difference betweenactual and expectedTeledensity

Better offtelecom-wisethan expected

Worse offtelecom-wisethan expected

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

The telecom underdevelopedEconomies with teledensity of less than one, 1992

Note: * Classified by United Nations as Least Developed Country.Source: ITU, UN.

0.8120'581.32'555.1TOTAL / AVERAGE0.9811'469.11'175.7China130.9036.54.1Papua New Guinea120.781'500.0191.2Indonesia 110.776'796.7879.6India 100.75130.017.4Sri Lanka 90.3368.920.6Nepal* 80.29200.069.5Viet Nam 70.21256.3119.3Bangladesh*60.183.01.6Bhutan *50.1880.043.7Myanmar * 40.156.84.5Lao P.D.R.*30.1529.019.1Afghanistan*20.065.09.1Cambodia* 1

Tele-density

Main lines(k)

Population(M)

Country

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

From 1 to 40 in thirty years

Teledensity1983 - 1992

838383 929292

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Convergence

Source: ITU.

Teledensity transition from 10 to 30

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Convergence II

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Digitization

% of main linesconnected to

digital exchanges1992

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Mobile

Cellular subscribersper 100 inhabitantsTop 16 countries, 1992

Note: Nordic - Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark.Not including countries with population less than 100,000.Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Mobile II

Cellular subscribersas a % of total telephone subscribers1992

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Telecom service revenue

Source: ITU.

Constant prices

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Market share

Japan

Australia

Korea

TaiwanChina Others

Telecom service revenueTotal 1992: US$ 93 B

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Capital expenditure

Constant prices

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Investment shares

Telecom capital expenditureTotal 1992: 36 B US$

JapanKorea

China

TaiwanAustralia Others

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Outgoing international telephone trafficAsia Pacific region

Billion minutes

Traffic

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Direction of traffic

Destination ofAsia-Pacific Traffic1991 Total: 5 B Minutes

Asia-Pacific

USA

EuropeOther

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Telecom equipment exports

USA Telecom equipment importsM US$ 1992

Note: Black bars are Asia-Pacific countries.Source: US Department of Commerce.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Telecom equipment exports II

USA Telecom equipment importsM US$ 1989-92

Source: US Department of Commerce.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Top operators

World Rank Asia-PacificTelecom Operators1992 Revenue> US$ 1 Billion

4946454038363127262218

1

Source: ITU.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Productivity comparison

Source: ITU.

1991

Singapore - US$ 1’204US$ 742Revenue per main line

Japan - US$ 185’000US$ 52’000Revenue per employee

South Korea - 25170Main lines per employee

Top countryAverageCategory

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Future

• “Reaching the consumer is going to be hard, because the roads, airports, ports and telephone lines ... needed to support the next burst of industrial growth and consumer spending are not there. The process of building them should provide the second great Asian business opportunity of the next few years.”

• A billion consumers, Survey of Asia. THE ECONOMIST. October 30th 1993.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Future II

• “Asia is going to be installing the equivalent of Japan’s entire present switching capacity and of two-fifths of America’s. China will be adding as many lines as America does in these years, and India more than Japan does. As a whole Asia’s purchases should equal those of the OECD excluding Germany.”

• A billion consumers, Survey of Asia. THE ECONOMIST. October 30th 1993.

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Projection

Projection for 27 lower income Asia-Pacific countries

Source: ITU.

15%Annual growth rate

65MLines to add (1993-2000)

US$ 95 BInvestment forecast (1993-2000)

2.72Teledensity forecast 2000

1.06Teledensity 1992

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Prospects

• Ingredients for telecom growtho Economic growtho Adaptation to technologyo Liberalization o Government commitment

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

CIS

Source: ITU.

6.701.4421.5Uzbekistan6.55.253.8Turkmenistan4.87.275.5Tajikistan7.58.344.5Kyrgyzstan

11.331.9317.0KazakhstanCountry

Tele-Density (p. 100)

Main lines (M)

Popu-lation

(M)

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Restructuring trends

Introduces competition; partly privatizes NTTJapan1985Partly privatizes Telekom MalaysiaMalaysia1990Privatizes Telecom New ZealandClear licensed as second operator

New Zealand1990

Optus licensed as second operatorAustralia Telecom & OTC merge (Telstra)

Australia1990

Singapore Telecom partly privatizedSingapore1993Local service competition with 3 additional operatorsHongkong1995

Dacom licensedKorea Telecom partly privatized (93)

Korea1990

Pan-Asian Telecommunications Summit, Bangkok, 7-9 December 1993

Food for thoughtFastest growing telecom networks

1991-1992

Note: Not including countries with population less than a millionor less than 100’000 lines added.Source: ITU.