Post on 22-Dec-2015
Apex Paris - October 2007 1
UK and EuropeanRenewable Energy trends and
implications for energy markets
UK and EuropeanRenewable Energy trends and
implications for energy markets
Philip WolfeRenewable Energy Association
www.r-e-a.net
Philip WolfeRenewable Energy Association
www.r-e-a.net
Apex Paris - October 2007 2
Renewable Energy AssociationRenewable Energy AssociationMore than 500 members
> multinationals to ‘one-man bands’
Renewable heat, power, fuel & CHP
All technologies:> Biomass
> Bioenergy
> Solar
> Wind
> Marine
> Hydro
> Heat pumps
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This presentationThis presentation
EU energy targets
Possible scenarios for 2020
Policy implications
Trading and market implications
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A lot of 20%’s
A lot of 20%’s
The EU commitments for 2020The EU commitments for 2020
Emissions reductions Binding
> 20% unilateral, or> 30% if multilateral
Energy conservation Non-binding
> 20% below current projections
Renewables Binding
> 20% of total energy> 10% of transport fuels
Emissions reductions Binding
> 20% unilateral, or> 30% if multilateral
Energy conservation Non-binding
> 20% below current projections
Renewables Binding
> 20% of total energy> 10% of transport fuelstotal energy
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Renewable trends in EuropeRenewable trends in Europe
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ItalyDenmarkGermanyUnited KingdomEuropean Union 25EU25 (target)UK (target?)
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UK Energy White PaperUK Energy White Paper“The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal …
by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption …
we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.”
“The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal …
by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption …
we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.”
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Renewable34%
Renewable18%Renewable
12%
Fossil and nuclear66%
Fossil and nuclear88%
Fossil82%
Transport Heat Power
20% Renewables – EU vision20% Renewables – EU vision20% Renewables – EU vision20% Renewables – EU vision
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First: Cut energy consumptionFirst: Cut energy consumption
Energy conservation measuresMore efficient energy usage> Regulate against inefficient products> Regulate against parasitic loads
More efficient energy generation> Limit generating stations’ waste energy
UK consumption in 2020 same as nowas a rough working
assumption
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Routemap to 2020 New measures needed
Routemap to 2020 New measures needed
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Enhanced policy proposalsMerchant power
Enhanced policy proposalsMerchant power
Increased RO1 objective ~22% in 2020> Set 25% quota and increase headroom> Retain buyout link to retail price index> Offshore super-grid?
Tidal lagoons, barrages and new large hydro?Incentives for large scale CHP2
> Large thermal generators must use heat> Renewable Heat (or Gas?) Obligation
Measures to deliver biomass strategy3
1. Renewable (electricity) Obligation2 Combined heat and power
3 Published by UK Government in May
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Enhanced policy proposals Other energy sectors
Enhanced policy proposals Other energy sectors
Renewable transport fuels> Higher RTFO4 quotas – 10% in 2020> High blend & second generation bio-fuels
Domestic buildings> Building regulations for new homes > Smart metering roll-out programme> Retrofit programme for existing houses
Non-residential buildings> A new Code for Sustainable Buildings> Heat networks in new developments> Renewables in agriculture
4 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation
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Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy
Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy
Apex Paris - October 2007 13
Renewable34%
Renewable18%Renewable
12%
Fossil and nuclear66%
Fossil and nuclear88%
Fossil82%
Transport Heat Power
20% Renewables – in EU20% Renewables – in EU20% Renewables – in EU20% Renewables – in EU
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10%
23%12%
2%
2%
16%
7%
11%
3%
51%72%90%
Transport Heat Power
Onboard OnsiteOn farm OnshoreNearshore OffshoreFossil & nuclear
20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhere it isWhere it is
20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhere it isWhere it is
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5%
23% 11%
8%
8%
10%
2%
1%
9%
5%3%
1%
51%90% 72%
Transport Heat Power
Hydro MicroRenew ablesBiomass BioEnergyOnshore w ind MarineOffshore w ind Fossil & nuclear
20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhat it isWhat it is
20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhat it isWhat it is
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So what’s new ?So what’s new ?
More focus on heat and fuels> Not simply electricity
Increasing penetration of renewables> Exceeding nuclear, coal and oil
Competition between energy markets> Power, heat & transport competing for:
> Biomass
> Gas
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What’s new for power ?What’s new for power ?
Trend towards decentralised generation
Offshore renewables:> International grids?
Renewables delivery profile> Base-load / intermittent; predictability
Advanced metering – new facilities:> Load management
> Real-time price signals
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Implications for marketsImplications for markets
More and smaller energy producers
Increased cross-border trading
Regional (distribution level) potential?
Real-time pricing
More flexible demand
Increasing role for balancing services
New trading opportunities for heat?