Apex Paris - October 2007 1 UK and European Renewable Energy trends and implications for energy...

Apex Paris - October 2007 1

UK and EuropeanRenewable Energy trends and

implications for energy markets



Philip WolfeRenewable Energy Association

www.r-e-a.net


www.r-e-a.net


Renewable Energy AssociationRenewable Energy AssociationMore than 500 members

> multinationals to ‘one-man bands’

Renewable heat, power, fuel & CHP

All technologies:> Biomass

> Bioenergy

> Solar

> Wind

> Marine

> Hydro

> Heat pumps


This presentationThis presentation

EU energy targets

Possible scenarios for 2020

Policy implications

Trading and market implications


A lot of 20%’s

A lot of 20%’s

The EU commitments for 2020The EU commitments for 2020

Emissions reductions Binding

> 20% unilateral, or> 30% if multilateral

Energy conservation Non-binding

> 20% below current projections

Renewables Binding

> 20% of total energy> 10% of transport fuels

Emissions reductions Binding

> 20% unilateral, or> 30% if multilateral

Energy conservation Non-binding

> 20% below current projections

Renewables Binding

> 20% of total energy> 10% of transport fuelstotal energy


Renewable trends in EuropeRenewable trends in Europe

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

17.5%

20.0%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ItalyDenmarkGermanyUnited KingdomEuropean Union 25EU25 (target)UK (target?)


UK Energy White PaperUK Energy White Paper“The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal …

by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption …

we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.”

“The 20% renewables target is an ambitious goal …

by 2020, on the basis of existing policies, renewables would contribute around 5% of the UK’s consumption …

we will bring forward the appropriate measures, beyond those set out in this White Paper, to make our contribution to meeting these targets.”


Renewable34%

Renewable18%Renewable

12%

Fossil and nuclear66%


Fossil82%

Transport Heat Power

20% Renewables – EU vision20% Renewables – EU vision20% Renewables – EU vision20% Renewables – EU vision


First: Cut energy consumptionFirst: Cut energy consumption

Energy conservation measuresMore efficient energy usage> Regulate against inefficient products> Regulate against parasitic loads

More efficient energy generation> Limit generating stations’ waste energy

UK consumption in 2020 same as nowas a rough working

assumption


Routemap to 2020 New measures needed

Routemap to 2020 New measures needed


Enhanced policy proposalsMerchant power

Enhanced policy proposalsMerchant power

Increased RO1 objective ~22% in 2020> Set 25% quota and increase headroom> Retain buyout link to retail price index> Offshore super-grid?

Tidal lagoons, barrages and new large hydro?Incentives for large scale CHP2

> Large thermal generators must use heat> Renewable Heat (or Gas?) Obligation

Measures to deliver biomass strategy3

1. Renewable (electricity) Obligation2 Combined heat and power

3 Published by UK Government in May


Enhanced policy proposals Other energy sectors

Enhanced policy proposals Other energy sectors

Renewable transport fuels> Higher RTFO4 quotas – 10% in 2020> High blend & second generation bio-fuels

Domestic buildings> Building regulations for new homes > Smart metering roll-out programme> Retrofit programme for existing houses

Non-residential buildings> A new Code for Sustainable Buildings> Heat networks in new developments> Renewables in agriculture

4 Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation


Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy

Routemap to 2020 Enhanced energy policy


Renewable34%

Renewable18%Renewable

12%



Fossil82%


20% Renewables – in EU20% Renewables – in EU20% Renewables – in EU20% Renewables – in EU


10%

23%12%

2%

2%

16%

7%

11%

3%

51%72%90%


Onboard OnsiteOn farm OnshoreNearshore OffshoreFossil & nuclear

20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhere it isWhere it is

20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhere it isWhere it is


5%

23% 11%

8%

8%

10%

2%

1%

9%

5%3%

1%

51%90% 72%


Hydro MicroRenew ablesBiomass BioEnergyOnshore w ind MarineOffshore w ind Fossil & nuclear

20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhat it isWhat it is

20% Renewables – in UK20% Renewables – in UKWhat it isWhat it is


So what’s new ?So what’s new ?

More focus on heat and fuels> Not simply electricity

Increasing penetration of renewables> Exceeding nuclear, coal and oil

Competition between energy markets> Power, heat & transport competing for:

> Biomass

> Gas


What’s new for power ?What’s new for power ?

Trend towards decentralised generation

Offshore renewables:> International grids?

Renewables delivery profile> Base-load / intermittent; predictability

Advanced metering – new facilities:> Load management

> Real-time price signals


Implications for marketsImplications for markets

More and smaller energy producers

Increased cross-border trading

Regional (distribution level) potential?

Real-time pricing

More flexible demand

Increasing role for balancing services

New trading opportunities for heat?







www.r-e-a.net


www.r-e-a.net

Apex Paris - October 2007 1 UK and European Renewable Energy trends and implications for energy...

Documents

Transcript of Apex Paris - October 2007 1 UK and European Renewable Energy trends and implications for energy...