Post on 04-Aug-2020
Katie Denis, Senior Director, Industry Narrative, CBAJoan Driggs, VP, Thought Leadership, IRILarry Levin, EVP, Market & Shopper Intelligence, IRI
April 21, 2020
ANTICIPATE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR DURING AND AFTER COVID-19
Learning From Past Crises and Countries That Came First
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Joan DriggsVice President
Thought Leadership
Larry LevinExecutive Vice President
Market & Shopper Intelligence
Katie DenisSenior Director
Industry Narrative
Today’s Presenters
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How an Evolving Consumer Outlook Will Impact Current and Likely Future Behavior
Visit IRI’s COVID-19 Insights Portal andCOVID-19 Dashboard for more reports and updates.
To Create This Report, IRI Leveraged Data and Analytics from Various Proprietary Retail, Market, Consumer and Shopper Assets, Including:• IRI Point-of-Sale Data, including Daily Chain POS Data • IRI E-Market Insights®
• Shopper Basket Analysis from IRI Consumer Network™ Panel and Weekly Consumer Panel Solutions
• IRI Weekly Pulse Surveys • IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Fresh Model
Consumer Sentiment
From the Past, Into the Future
Purchase and Shopper Behavior
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Where Are We Today?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/unemployment-claims-coronavirus-3-million; / https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Biggest jump in new jobless claims in U.S. history. Economists warn more than 40MM Americans
could lose their jobs by the end of April.
~2.5MMglobal COVID-19
cases
>770,000U.S. COVID-19 cases
~22MMAmericans have
filed for unemployment
$1,200CARES stimulus
checks went out April 9
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49% 49%40%
36% 39%44%
13% 11% 15%
3/20-3/22 3/27-3/29 4/3-4/5
Q13. How long do you expect the economic impact of coronavirus to last, before the economy recovers? Please select your best estimate based on your own opinion as of today. Q12. How long do you expect this health crisis to last before health concerns return to normal?
Expected Duration of Health Crisis
12% 11% 8%
30% 31%27%
57% 57%65%
3/20-3/22 3/27-3/29 4/3-4/5
More than 6 months
3-6 months
Less than 3 months
Expected Duration of Economic Impact
>60%Consumers Are Adjusting Their Expectations, With 60% Now Believing the Health Crisis Will Last 3+ More Months
Source: IRI Weekly Surveys among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
believe the economic impact
will last over 6 months
48%of Americans think
the U.S. is not doing enough to respond
to COVID-19 (up from 34% 2 weeks ago)
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20%15% 13% 11% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7%
13% 14%
18% 27%25%
23%20% 19% 18% 18% 17%
20% 20%
Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Wave 23/20-3/22
Wave 33/27-3/29
A lot worse off A little worse off
On March 16, the Dow lost 2,997.10 points to close at 20,188.52. That day’s point plummet and
12.93% freefall topped the original October 1929 Black Monday slide of 12.8% for one session.
38%42%
38%34%
29% 27%26% 26% 24%
33% 34%
By March 31, More Than 1 in 3 Americans Experienced a Downturn in Personal Finances; The Worst Levels Since 2012Financial Situation Worse Now vs. YAG
E2. How would you describe your current financial situation vs. a year ago? Select one.
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Buy less fresh produce, as is more expenisve
Buy fewer healthy produts, as are more expenisve
Give up my favorite brands
Try lower-priced brands
Buy more private label
Buy fewer organic products, as are more expensive
Buy fewer prepared meals at grocery stores
Buy smaller quantities of favorite treats
Buying fewer individual serving pkgs
Cut back spending on non-essential groceries
As Consumers Contend With a New Economic Downturn, They Are Likely to Exhibit Behaviors Evident in Prior Recessions Behaviors During 2008 Recession: % of Respondents
Source: IRI AttitudeLink™ Survey of 1,000 Consumers, August 2008
Buy less fresh produce, as is more expensive
Buy fewer healthy products, as are more expensive
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Historically, CPG Manufacturers Have Seen a Positive Boon in Sales in Times of Crisis Due to Stockpiling BehaviorStockpiling Behaviors Across Key CPG Categories
Examples of localized crises include Hurricane Irma in Florida and Hurricane Harvey in Texas in 2017.
As illustrated by these events, stockpiling occurred across three different types of products:
• Normal Purchases Lend themselves well to stockpiling – e.g., canned meat, canned vegetables, canned soups, toilet tissue
• New PurchasesWell suited for stockpiling – e.g., canned citrus fruit
• Longer Shelf-Life IndulgencesMaintains variety and enjoyment – e.g., packaged cookies
Hurricane Irma Impact on Select CPG Categories*similar behavior was observed during Hurricane Harvey
4 weeks % Chg. Vs. YA
Source: IRI POS Data, 4 Weeks Ending 12-03-17, Florida MULO+C. IRI Growth Consulting
IRMA HARVEY
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Clear Stockpiling Demand Spikes Occurred Across Categories, Followed by a Typical Trail Off of Shoppers
Household Penetration Increases in the Moment, but That Growth Tends to Evaporate in the Long Term Hurricane Irma Impact on Select CPG Categories | Stockpiling Behaviors Across Key CPG Categories | Quarterly % HH Penetration
12 Weeks Ending
Hurricane Period
11% 10% 13% 11%
+2.5ppts
25% 21% 35% 33%
+14.4ppts.
79% 79% 81% 82%
May 21, 2017 Nov. 5, 2017Aug. 13, 2017 Jan. 28, 2018
+2.0ppts.
Canned Citrus
Canned Soup
Packaged Cookies
39% 40% 48% 41%
+7.9ppts.
Canned Meats
Annual HH Penetration Growth
(% Chg CY 2018 v 2017)
-3.0ppts
-4.4ppts
-0.1ppts
-2.8ppts
Despite a short-term boon to sales, these
categories still saw long-term
penetration declines
Source: IRI Panel Data, 12 Weeks Ending 01-28-18, Florida All Outlets. IRI Growth Consulting
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COVID-19 Is a Crisis Like No Other
Social isolation
Jobs shifted to home –or worse: layoffs and furloughs
Closing of restaurants, bars and non-essential retail
While we can learn from past recessions and crises, COVID-19 is unique in that it has changed the day-to-day existence of nearly all.
Non-essential services are shut down
Extreme limits on business and leisure travel
No public entertainment or access to cultural venues
Schools are closed
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More Than a Third of Consumers Will Spend CARES Stimulus Money on Groceries and Household EssentialsHousing, Food Among Top Plans for Money Received from Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act
to pay rent, mortgage, taxes or utilities
48%
to buy household items; clothing
10%to pay healthcare
bills; caregiver expenses
12%
to buy more groceries and other everyday
HH essentials
35%to add to my savings
or investment accounts
40%
Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers / Total Wave 5 – April 10-12. / Base 653Q. What are the main ways you expect to use the money you receive from the government stimulus / economic relief plan?
60% expect to receive stimulus money30% aren't sure if they'll receive money10% don't anticipate receiving money
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Working From Home Will Become the Norm for More Americans25% Are Working From Home More Often Rather Than Going to an Office Due to COVID-19
After Stay-at-Home Restrictions End, Those Who Have Been Working from Home More Plan to:
Source: IRI Survey 4/10-4/12 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
18%
19%63%
Return to my usual schedule for work location
Work from home much more often than I did before COVID-19
Work from home a little more often than I did before COVID-19
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20%Report Making More Meals Using Packaged Prepared Foods or Frozen Foods
Meal Preparation Has Changed Dramatically in Response to Stay-at-Home Orders
% Meals Prepared at Home
Source: IRI Surveys fielded 4/3-4/5 among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
39%Report Cooking from Scratch More Often
36%
11%
25%
12%
17%
18%
23%
59%
2 months ago Currently
91-100% of meals
81-90% of meals
71-80% of meals
70% of meals or less
In Response to COVID-19
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Changes Consumers Made to Eating Habits Will Continue After the Crisis Abates
After Stay-at-Home Restrictions End, Those Who Made Changes Plan to…
Wait a FEW EXTRA WEEKS after restrictions end before returning to restaurantsWait a MONTH OR MOREafter restrictions end before returning to restaurants
43%
38%
Continue to create meals from scratchmore than before
55% Continue to make coffee at home more than before
66%
Source: IRI Survey 4/10-4/12 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
65%Eating at Home More OftenInstead of at Restaurants
33%Creating More Meals
from Scratch
27%Making Coffee at Home More Often Instead of Going to Coffee Shops
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c
Consumers’ Plans for Memorial Day Signal Lighter Demand for Summer Holiday Products Totals Do Not Equal 100 Due to Rounding
Source: IRI Survey 4/10-4/12 among National Consumer Panel representing Total US Primary Grocery Shoppers
Will Likely Spend Memorial Day in a
Similar Way as Last Year
Don’t Know
Different Plans This Year Than Last Year
45%
23%
33%• 19% Hosted or Attended a Party Last Year
• 13% Traveled Last Year• 3% Other
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Consumers Struggle Between Retailer and Brand LoyaltyMore Consumers Returning to Their Preferred Retailer: When faced with out-of-stocks at the onset of COVID-19, consumers went to other stores looking for those items. As consumers become accustomed to the new normal, they are returning to their retailers despite out-of-stocks.
Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. / Q. You mentioned that grocery or HH essentials were out-of-stock or unavailable when you recently tried to buy them. What did you do most often when something you wanted to buy was recently unavailable at your store/site?
Wave 1 TotalMarch 13 – 15 (609 base)
Wave 5 TotalApril 10 – 12 (1,001 base)
37% went to a different physical store and bought the item I wanted 30%
14% went online to order the item I wanted from an online retailer 17%
13% went back to that same retail location later to buy it when it was back in stock 26%
16% bought a different brand or variety instead, from the same retailer location 17%
Choices at the Shelf: At the onset of COVID-19, consumers reported nearly 3 categories they intended to shop were out of stock; today that number is 6.
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of consumers who have been furloughed or laid off report
they have noticed price
increases
Shoppers Notice Price IncreasesFewer promotions, larger stock-up trips, buying different pack sizes and even buying different brands can all fuel consumer perceptions of higher prices.
41%
51%
61%67% 66%
Wav
e 2
Wav
e 3
Wav
e 4
Wav
e 5
Wav
e 1
76%Q. Consumers who agree with statement: I have seen prices increase because of the coronavirus.
Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. March 13-15 March 20-22 March 27-20 April 3-5 April 10-12;
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c
Retailer Product Limits Dampen DemandQ. For items that were in-stock to buy, did you reduce the number of items you bought on any recent shopping occasion due to a retailer limiting the amount per shopper for certain items? % who responded: Yes, there was a purchase limit on certain items so I bought fewer than I wanted.
N/A
46%54%
60% 63%
Wav
e 1
Wav
e 2
Wav
e 3
Wav
e 4
Wav
e 5
Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers. March 13-15 March 20-22 March 27-20 April 3-5 April 10-12;
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Private Label is a Deliberate and a Default ChoiceSentiments Consistent from March to April; Percentages Who Agree Completely
chose Private Label in the past month because the brand they usually buy was unavailable
18%bought
Private Label products in
the past month to save money
20%
Source: IRI Survey 2020, among IRI Consumer Network™ Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers, April 10-12, 2020.
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c
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15% 18%
30% 21%
13%8%
10%
12%
23%32%
9% 9%
2019 2020
Downtrodden
Cautious and Worried
Start-UpsSavvy Shoppers
Optimistics
Carefree
Over Four in 10 Americans Are Now Cautious and Worried or Downtrodden as Consumers Struggle to Find Their Way in This Economic Downturn
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Under $25K/year
$25K-$49.9K/year
$50K-$69.9K/year
$70K-$99.9K/year
$100K/year
18%12% 14% 11%
21% 25% 23%
22%20% 20%
19%
24%24% 26%
13%
10%15%
16%
14%11% 11%
16%
21%16%
18%
14% 12% 15%
32% 37% 35% 36%28% 28% 26%
Wave 2 TotalRespondents
Carefree Optimistics SavvyShoppers
Cautious andWorried
Start-Ups Downtrodden
Household Income Alone Is a Poor Predictor of What Differentiates and Drives the Economic Attitudes and Behaviors of ConsumersMore than one in four Start-Ups and Downtrodden have household incomes that exceed $100,000 per year.
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While Over Six in 10 Americans Are Extremely Concerned About COVID-19, Downtrodden and Start-Ups’ Angst Is Exacerbated by Stock Market Worries
% EXTREMELY CONCERNED
63%
53% 55%60%
70% 72% 73%
29%
19%24% 25%
30%
50%
39%
Wave 5 TotalRespondents
Carefree Optimistics Savvy Shoppers Cautious andWorried
Start-Ups Downtrodden
Corona Virus Stock Market
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59%
48%54%
50%
61%
71%77%
33%
25% 27%
19%
33%
55% 58%
Total Respondents Carefree Optimistics Savvy Shoppers Cautious andWorried
Start-Ups Downtrodden
I am more concerned about Coronavirus than I was last week (Wave Two)
I am more concerned about Coronavirus than I was last week (Wave Five)
% SAYING THEY ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS THIS WEEK THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK
Overall, Fears Concerning Coronavirus Appear to Have Softened From Consumer Views’ of Their Concern From the Prior Week
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39%
59%
80%
Wave 5 TotalRespondents
Start-Ups Downtrodden
My household's income is at risk because of restrictions created to
curb the coronavirus
24%29%
35%
Wave 5 TotalRespondents
Start-Ups Downtrodden
I’m working fewer hoursbecause of the
coronavirus
43%
71% 72% 68%
Wave 5 TotalRespondents
Start-Ups Cautious andWorrid
Downtrodden
My household includespeople who might be especiallysusceptible to the coronavirus
This Growing Concern About COVID-19 Among Start-Ups and Downtrodden Is Well-Founded, and Rooted in Harsh Economic and Health-related Realities
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Start-Ups and Downtrodden Are Notably More Likely to Be Facing the Very Real Fear of Not Being Able to Afford Groceries
25%
15% 15%19%
28%34%
57%
Wave 5 TotalRespondents
Carefree SavvyShoppers
Optimistics Cautious andWorried
Start-Ups Downtrodden
% AGREEING THAT MY HOUSEHOLD IS HAVING DIFFICULTY AFFORDING NEEDED GROCERIES
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16%25% 18% 21%
9% 11%22%
44%
50%48% 44%
50% 42%
43%
40%25%
34% 35% 41% 48%35%
Wave 5 TotalRespondents
SavvyShoppers
Carefree Optimistics Start-Ups Cautious andWorried
Downtrodden
Over-reacted About right Not doing enough
RATING OF CURRENT OVERALL RESPONSEIN THE U.S. TO THE CORONAVIRUS
The Cautious and Worried and Start-Ups Are Most Critical of the Current U.S. Response to COVID-19
c
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Large-Format Retail Food & Beverage Sales Accelerated Slightly in the Latest Week, Growing 27% vs. Year Ago; Nonedibles Continued to DecelerateDollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
02-23-20 03-15-2002-09-2002-02-20 02-16-20 03-22-2003-01-20 03-08-20 03-29-20
TotalStore
F&B
Non-edibles
04-05-20
6 month F&B growth benchmark (+2.2%)
% Chg. vs. Prior Week:Total Store: +6.9%F&B: +9.4%Nonedibles: +1.2%
April 15 ~500,000 have recovered from
COVID-19
March 12Dow Jones drops more than 10%, the biggest
drop since 1987
March 13CPG retail sales were 53% higher than the highest day in 2019
6 month Nonedibles growth benchmark (+0.9%)
Source: IRI TSV Model Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm
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Daily Sales Trends Highlight the Panic Stock-Up on March 12 and 13 and Subsequent Gradual Softening
March 13Largest shopping day of the year
200
0
100
02-2
7
02-2
5
03-1
5
02-2
4
03-2
4
02-2
6
02-2
802
-29
04-0
4
03-0
103
-02
03-0
3
03-2
2
03-1
6
03-0
403
-05
03-0
6
04-1
0
03-0
703
-08
04-0
2
03-0
903
-10
04-0
3
03-1
1
04-0
6
03-1
203
-13
03-1
4
03-1
7
03-2
1
03-1
803
-19
03-2
7
03-2
0
03-2
3
03-2
503
-26
03-2
803
-29
03-3
003
-31
04-0
1
04-0
5
04-0
704
-08
04-0
9
04-1
1
Sat./SunSat./SunSat./Sun Sat./Sun Sat./Sun Sat./Sun
March 11President Trump prime-
time speech, COVID-19 a global pandemic
March 12Dow Jones drops
over 10%; significant travel restrictions
implemented
Index of Average Daily SalesU.S. Grocery Retail
April 6 – April 11Total store sales are estimated to be
up 23% vs YAG due to consumers shopping for Food & Beverage during Easter week
Source: IRI proprietary models, U.S. grocery retail
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Since March, More Grocery Spend Has Shifted From Weekends to WeekdaysShare of Spend on Weekends (% Spend on Saturdays and Sundays)
2-9-2020 2-16-2020 2-23-2020 3-1-2020 3-8-2020 3-15-2020 3-22-2020 3-29-2020 4-5-2020
Source: IRI proprietary models, U.S. grocery retail
35.9%32.1%
34.4%36.5%
33.3%31.5%
25.1%
29.8% 30.3%
High Grocery Spend Low Grocery Spend
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c
F&B Trips Continued to Decelerate in the Latest Week Although Growth is Still Positive, While Dollars per Trip Rose% Change vs YA // All Outlets // National Consumer Panel
-100
1020304050
F&B
Mar-15
Nonedibles
2-Feb Feb-09 Mar-01Feb-16 Feb-23 Mar-08 Mar-22 Mar-29 Apr-05
-10-505
10152025 Edibles
Nonedibles
Feb-02
Feb-09
Feb-16
Feb-23
Mar-01
Mar-08
Mar-15
Mar-22
Mar-29
Apr-05
-10-505
101520
Feb-16
Edibles
Nonedibles
Feb-02 Feb-09 Feb-23 Mar-01 Mar-08 Mar-15 Mar-22 Apr-05Mar-29
Source: National Consumer Panel / Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm
Trips % Change vs. YAG
$/Trip % Change vs. YAG
Units/Trip % Change vs. YAG
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Pantry-Stocking Trips Rose After Dropping in the Prior Two Weeks; Other Trip Types Slowed Including Quick Trips Which is Negative in the Latest Week>70% of Consumers Report Buying Enough Groceries Their HH Needs For 2 Weeks or More
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
02-09-2002-02-20
QUICK TRIP
02-16-20 03-01-2002-23-20 03-08-20 03-15-20
FILL-IN
03-22-20 03-29-20 04-05-20
PANTRYSTOCKING
SPECIALPURPOSE
April 9Mailing of CARES stimulus
checks commences
April 742 states have “shelter
in place” orders
March 27President Trump signs
$2 trillion COVID-19 economic stimulus bill.
Source: National Consumer Panel / Note: Data reflected does not include Costco or Total eComm
Total Trips % Change vs YA by Trip Type // Total U.S. All Outlet // National Consumer Panel
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LEGEND
Consumers Have Shifted From Stocking Up Across Total Store to Focused Purchases of F&B; Fill-ins Include Fresh and Frozen to Offset Pantry Items$ % Change vs. YAG - MULO Jan 6 to
Mar 1W/E
Mar 8W/E
Mar 15W/E
Mar 22 W/E
Mar 29W/E
Apr 5TOTAL STORE 1.4% 12.6% 67.9% 62.5% 15.5% 18.0%Total Nonedible 1.0% 19.6% 61.3% 43.0% 2.3% 0.3%Total F&B 1.6% 9.0% 71.4% 73.1% 22.6% 27.3%
Paper Products 2.9% 60.1% 212.7% 96.5% 40.2% 33.5%Home Care 3.5% 41.5% 103.6% 75.5% 21.7% 14.6%OTC Healthcare 5.1% 26.2% 73.6% 62.9% 6.1% -0.3%Personal Care 2.8% 19.8% 50.7% 35.8% -4.1% -5.8%Pet Food + Care 3.1% 7.5% 40.1% 37.5% -6.0% -6.0%Gen Merchandise -2.0% 7.5% 23.2% 21.1% 2.5% 5.1%Cosmetics -0.1% 4.1% 9.2% -4.7% -21.3% -15.4%
Beverage 2.1% 13.0% 60.1% 48.8% 8.3% 11.6%Packaged Food 1.1% 11.7% 87.6% 87.1% 25.3% 28.8%Alcohol 3.6% 8.7% 40.9% 56.8% 27.8% 36.7%
Baby Food + Care -3.1% 8.2% 65.3% 41.8% -18.8% -23.7%
Dairy 1.3% 5.6% 59.9% 59.9% 22.0% 31.2%Frozen Foods 1.9% 5.3% 82.2% 96.3% 32.9% 36.4%Fresh Foods 1.3% 5.0% 59.5% 63.6% 19.9% 23.8%
50%+
20% to 50%
10% to 20%
0% to 5%
-20% to 0%
5% to 10%
<-20%
NO
NED
IBLE
F&B
Source: IRI POS data Week Ending April 5, 2020 vs year ago
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In 4 Weeks, Purchases Evolved from Pure Panic Stock-Up with Heavy Focus on Non-Foods to Meal Preparation Ingredients to Increased Focus on Comfort FoodsF&B Dollar % Change vs. YA // MULO // TSV – Top Growing Categories vs YA by Week
Week Ending 03/29/20
Flour/Meal 120.3%
Gloves 106.1%
Pancake Mixes 102.1%
Instant Potatoes 89.6%
Baking Mixes 89.2%
Premixed Cktl/Coolers 88.4%
Frosting 86.5%
Personal Therm 84.2%
Bkd Beans/Canned Brd 80.6%
Tomato Products 80.2%
Dry Beans/Veg 79.7%
Evap/Condensed Milk 78.9%
Pizza Products 77.1%
Baking Needs 74.0%
Dough/Biscuit Dgh - Rfg 72.7%
Week Ending 03/15/20
Personal Therm 448.2%
HH Cleaner Cloths 317.1%
Dry Beans/Veg 263.9%
Moist Towelettes 251.0%
Toilet Tissue 235.9%
Bleach 233.7%
Pasta 230.0%
Bkd Beans/Canned Brd 217.5%
Facial Tissue 213.9%
Soup 212.8%
Rice 209.7%
Vegetables - SS 206.8%
Seafood - SS 201.7%
Baby Wipes 197.5%
Instant Potatoes 197.4%
Week Ending 03/22/20
Personal Therm 295.1%
Instant Potatoes 232.8%
Pancake Mixes 217.0%
Bkd Beans/Canned Brd 216.1%
Pasta 212.7%
Dry Pkg Dinner Mixes 211.2%
Water Filters/Devices 210.3%
Vegetables - SS 209.5%
Dry Beans/Veg 209.1%
Tomato Products 202.9%
Flour/Meal 202.7%
Dinners - SS 201.3%
Soup 200.4%
Seafood - SS 188.4%
Spaghetti/Ital Sauce 180.2%
Non-Edibles Shelf-Stable Meal Components Baking/Indulgent
Week Ending 04/05/20
Flour/Meal 120.1%
Pancake Mixes 107.4%
Baking Mixes 94.9%
Baking Needs 89.4%
Instant Potatoes 85.3%
Gloves 85.0%
Evap/Condensed Milk 84.5%
Dough/Biscuit Dough - Rfg 80.3%
Tomato Products 77.1%
Syrup 74.4%
Dry Beans/Veg 72.7%
Butter/Butter Blend 71.0%
Sugar 69.3%
Popcorn/Popcorn Oil 68.7%
Vegetables - SS 66.9%
Source: IRI POS
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Most of the Top Indulgent Categories Are Not Growing as Fast as F&B; Baking Categories Are Ranking High$ % Chg. vs. YAG – MULO – Top Indulgent Categories – 4 WE 04/05/20
BAKING MIXES
CARBONATED BEVERAGES
SALTY SNACKS38.0%
PASTRY/DOUGHNUTS
DOUGH/BISCUIT DOUGH - RFG
F&B
ICE CREAM/SHERBET
BAKING NEEDS
13.4%
37.5%
JELLIES/JAMS/HONEYAPPETIZERS/SNACK ROLLS - FZ
SPIRITS/LIQUORWINE
12.3%
106.5%
BEER/ALE/ALCOHOLIC CIDER
CHOCOLATE CANDY
COOKIESNOVELTIES - FZ
SNACK NUTS/SEEDS/CORN NUTS
48.4%
45.6%
92.9%83.8%
82.2%78.2%
17.1%
40.5%
35.8%33.0%
31.1%
11.7%
26.5%
15.8%
TEA/COFFEE - READY-TO-DRINKBAKERY SNACKSENERGY DRINKS
15.7%
NON-CHOCOLATE CANDY 5.6%
BAKING NEEDS
Source: IRI POS data – 4 Weeks Ending April 5, 2020 vs year ago
Chocolate Chips / Baking / Cocoa
101.0%Pizza Crust / Shell
89.2%Pie Filling52.1%
Marshmallow Cream45.1%
RTU Pie Crust42.8%Coconut20.0%
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 42
c
Perishables Like Meat Drove Growth Similar to Center-Store / Frozen as Meals Turned to At-HomeFresh foods retain the same share of total store sales with only service departments suffering. 17% of shoppers say they plan to buy more fresh foods during the pandemic; only 13% say they plan to buy less.
$ Sales % ChangeWE 04-05-20
Share of Total Store Sales WE 04-05-20
YTD 2020
Source: IRI Multi Outlet, Total Store Incl. Random-Weight (note: Deli excl. UPC 3rd party items); IRI Survey fielded 4/10-4/512, 2020, among National Consumer Panel representing Total U.S. Primary Grocery Shoppers
Fresh Deli*
2.4%
-22.5%
9.3%
27.1%
14.2%
31.3%
11.7%
41.2%
5.7%
-1.7%
6.4%
14.9%
6.8%
13.2%
11.6%
18.7%
0.6%
1.7%
3.4%
6.2%
7.5%
7.7%
7.8%
8.8%Fresh and Processed Meat
Beverages
Dairy
Fresh Produce
Refrigerated
Fresh and Packaged Bakery
Fresh Seafood
Dollar % Change vs. YA // Total U.S. MULO // TSV Model with Fresh
*Fresh Deli includes random weight lunch meat, deli cheese and deli prepared foods only.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 43
The U.S. is Following the Italian Incidence Curve of COVID-19Panic phase in U.S. started Feb. 29-March 1; panic shopping peaked March 13. Number of deaths in the U.S. surpassed Italy on April 11.
Panic Phase Divergence phase New NormalOld Normal
Up to 3rd week of Feb 2020
From mid-May 2020
Feb19 Mar11 Apr04 Apr22 May13
1000
2000
3000
4000
New
pos
itive
ca
ses
ObservedPredicted
Italy
Source: EIEF
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 44
Online Channel Sales Doubled in the First Days of COVID-19 Exposure; Click and Collect Up 3-4x from Same Period in 2019CPG Sales % Change vs. Year Ago
Case Count
61%
87% 88%86%
205%
357%
277%
433%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
2/18 Tue
2k
3/5 Thu
98%
2k
5k
282%
109% 119%
3/3 Tue
1k 1k3k 3k
3/15 Sun
3/6 Fri
2/23 Sun
4k
6k
18k
7k9k
10k
12k
15k
3/12 Thu
21k
3/11 Wed
25k
2/20 Thu
2/17 Mon
2/19 Wed
2/21 Fri
2/22 Sat
2/24 Mon
2/25 Tue
2/26 Wed
3/10 Tue
2/27 Thu
2/28 Fri
2/29 Sat
3/1 Sun
3/2 Mon
3/4 Wed
3/7 Sat
3/8 Sun
3/9 Mon
3/13 Fri
3/14 Sat
Cases
OnlineClick and collectHome delivery
11 cities in Lombardia and Veneto are declared "Red zones" and locked down
All schools and universities across
Italy are closed down
Italy is declared Red zone –the next day all non-essential
activities are shut down
Italy
Source: IRI Panel online, Dates reflect Monday, 17 February through Sunday, 1 March, 2020
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 45
What’s Next? Drawing on Past Natural Disasters and Recessions, We Illustrate the Demand Trajectory Post Shelter-In-Place (SIP) and Into the New NormalForecasting in the Context of COVID-19ILLUSTRATIVE COVID-19 IMPACT ON A CPG CATEGORY
Pre COVID-19 Panic Buying Recover New Normal
+18.8%
+0.5% +2.8%
+6.6%
+3.4%
Average Annual YTD Pre-March March April-July 2020 Post-July
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 46
Adopting to a Post-COVID-19 World
Leverage LessonsLeverage lessons from other crises, including
hurricanes, recessions and global regions ahead of the U.S.
IRMA HARVEY
Recognize Uniqueness of COVID-19
While we can learn from the past, COVID-19 presents unique challenges
and opportunities.
Creating a New Normal
Most consumers anticipate their lives will be forever
changed; companies also have to decide what their
“new normal” will be.
Opportunities: Change now to prepare for future
Take this time to evaluate mission, assortment, relationships and go-to-market strategies. Plan now for the
future.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 47
How Did We Do?Your Feedback is Important. Please Complete a Brief Survey.
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 48
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THANKYOU!
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