An Update on Mobility in Today’s Internet

Geoff Huston, APNIC Labs

November 2015

Why?

WhyshouldwebeconcernedaboutthemobileInternetenvironment?

Why?

WhyshouldwebeconcernedaboutthemobileInternetenvironment?

Because every

body else is!

Counting Platforms

h7p://statcounter.com/

8.5%4.3%

Counting Platforms

h7p://statcounter.com/

8.5%4.3%

Mobiles are now 40% of all visible devices

Counting the Money

h7p://statcounter.com/

8.5%4.3%

Mobiles are now 40% of all visible devices

Mobile access servic

es

represent

75% of all Access

Provider revenue

Mobile Production Numbers

2014:1.5billionunitsshipped

Factors:•  Produc:onvolumesarebringingdowncomponentunitcost

(unitfabrica:oncostisclosetoUSD50)•  AndroidisbringingdownsoFwareunitcost•  Noneedfornewcontent-leverageoffthetheexis:ngwebuniverseofcontent

•  ShiFawayfromthedesktopandthelaptopbythechipproduc:onindustryseekingnewmarketsfortheirproduc:oncapability

Who’s playing Android–  84%ofallsmartphoneshipmentsin2014– MulF-vendoradopFon– Androidalsoextendingintotabletsandlargescreens

AppleiPhone/iPad–  12%ofallsmartphoneshipmentsin2014–  RevenuesforApple:$182Bin2014

Windows–  3%marketshare– MostlyLumiamodelswithNokia

Device Market Share

One Mobile Technology?

•  GSMrevoluFonisedthemobileindustrybyofferingasingletechnologystandardandasinglebusinessmodelacrossalargepartofthemobilemarket

•  RoamingjustworkedintheGSMworld•  Hasthemobileindustrymanagedtostayinlockstepasitmovesintothe4Gworld?

One Mobile Technology?

•  GSMrevoluFonisedthemobileindustrybyofferingasingletechnologystandardandasinglebusinessmodelacrossalargepartofthemobilemarket

•  RoamingjustworkedintheGSMworld•  Hasthemobileindustrymanagedtostayinlockstepasitmovesintothe4Gworld?

One Mobile Technology - Not!

Themobileindustryisnowveryheterogeneous– VariousspectrumallocaFonsandregulatoryconstraints

– VariousserviceobjecFves– VariousoperatorbusinessobjecFves(incumbentvschallenger)

– RadicallydifferentobjecFvesfromhandsetsuppliersvsnetworkcarriageoperators

– 4Gserviceslargelyshareonlythename“4G”–therestismorerandom!

Who’s in control? Mobiles!

Themobilemarketisthemarket“driver”forInternettechnology:– ThePCandlaptopmarketisinterminaldecline– Mobilesrepresentthehighestrevenuesector,andshowthehighestgrowthnumbers

– ThemobileMarketwasbornandraisedonNATs•  TheIPv4modelforcellularmobileserviceissFllheavilybasedonCGNsandaliberaldoseofapplicaFonlevelproxiesandgateways

Implications for IPv6

ThetruedriverforIPv6adopFonintheInternetisinthemobilesector–  IfmobileplabormswenttoIPv6theneveryoneelsewouldbeforcedtofollow!

– SowhatcanwesayaboutIPv6andmobiles?

The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets–  IPv4accessnetwork

tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal(orunconvenFonal)6-in-4encapsulaFon–  IPv6accessnetwork

Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons

AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons

– DualStackaccessnetwork

The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets–  IPv4accessnetwork

tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon–  IPv6accessnetwork

Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons

AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons

– DualStackaccessnetwork

This diversity implies that m

any operators have uniq

ue

requirements for network and d

evice capabilities

The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets–  IPv4accessnetwork(3GPPmodel)

tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon–  IPv6accessnetwork

Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons

AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons

– DualStackaccessnetwork

This diversity implies that m

any operators have uniq

ue

requirements for network and d

evice capabilities

Which implies the im

position of cost and com

plexity for the

service operators throug

h customization of technologies

The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets–  IPv4accessnetwork(3GPPmodel)

tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon–  IPv6accessnetwork

Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons

AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons

– DualStackaccessnetwork

This diversity implies that m

any operators have uniq

ue

requirements for network and d

evice capabilities

Which implies the im

position of cost and com

plexity for the

service operators throug

h customization of technologies

Which all adds

to the cost of service

to consumers

The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets–  IPv4accessnetwork

tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon–  IPv6accessnetwork

Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons

AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons

– DualStackaccessnetwork

This diversity implies that m

any operators have uniq

ue

requirements for network and d

evice capabilities

Which implies the im

position of cost and com

plexity for the

service operators throug

h customization of technologies

Which all adds

to the cost of service

to consumers

Nobody wins from this fragmented transition scenario!

Mobile Devices and IPv6

iOS– UnFliOS9therewasnoOSpreferenceforIPv6

iOSusedamechanismthatwasmeanttoresultinanapproximate50/50splitbetweenIPv6andIPv4fordualstack

– BrowsersandotherappsmayaddtheirownIPv6selecFonbiasontopoftheOSlibrary

Mobile Devices and IPv6

iOSMeasurement:– WesawinAugust20151,216,594iOSdevicesaccessingDualStackservices64,740respondedinIPv6(5%ofseeniOSdevices)46,784preferredtouseIPv6

Mobile Devices and IPv6

iOS

–  iOS9changedthisbehaviourtopreferIPv6indualstackcontexts•  iOS9isreportedtousea25msbiasFmer

–  Nocurrentlyplannedsupportfor464XLATinthedevice•  AppleproposesaNAT64soluFontosingleprotocolaccessnetworks•  ApplicaFonsare“encouraged”toensurethattheycanoperateinaIPv6environment,potenFallyassistedbyabackendNAT64gateway

Mobile Devices and IPv6

Android– NopreferenceforIPv6–usesamechanismthatshouldresultinanapproximate50/50splitbetweenIPv6andIPv4fordualstack•  Nopubliccommitmenttochangethisbehaviour

– BrowsersandotherappsmayaddtheirownIPv6selecFonbias

Mobile Devices and IPv6

AndroidMeasurement– WesawinAugust20153,353,463Androiddevices

175,922respondedinIPv6(5%ofseenandroiddevices)151,754preferredtouseIPv6

Mobile Devices and IPv6

Android– NocurrentplanstoaddanybiastouseIPv6– Hassupportfor464XLAT– DoesnotsupportDHCPv6(prefersRAandPDframework)

It’s not just Transitional Complexities…

MobilesaremulF-interfacedevices:–  Cellularradio

•  Highunitcost,variablequalityandspeed,broadcoverage– WiFi

•  Lowcost,be7erqualityandspeed,tethered-stylecoverage–  Bluetooth

•  Lowcost,verylimitedradius

– USB(Ethernet)•  Lowcost,highqualityandspeed,physicallytethered

It’s not just Transitional Complexities…

MobilesaremulF-interfacedevices:–  Cellularradio

•  Highunitcost,variablequalityandspeed,broadcoverage– WiFi

•  Lowcost,be7erqualityandspeed,tethered-stylecoverage–  Bluetooth

•  Lowcost,verylimitedradius

– USB(Ethernet)•  Lowcost,highqualityandspeed,physicallytethered

Can we take advantage of

these

multiple interfaces to improve speed

and quality and also con

trol costs?

It’s not just Transitional Complexities…

WhichleadsmulF-interfacesupportandthema7erof“LiveHandoff”

Live Handoff

CananliveapplicaFonswitchbetweencellularradioandwirelessserviceswithoutdroppingthecall?

Live Handoff

CananliveapplicaFonswitchbetweencellularradioandwirelessserviceswithoutdroppingthecall?

Why is this an important que

stion?

Live Handoff

•  ThetradiFonalmobileprovidersoperatewithexclusiveaccesstospectrumwithindefinedlocales(withassociatedlicensecosts)

•  AlternateaccesscompeFtorscanoperatealmostanywhereinunlicensedspectrumwithWiFinetworkservices

•  DevicesnowincludeplabormservicesthatsupportconnecFonagilityacrossdiverseaccessnetworks

•  CustomersseehigheruFlityand(hopefully)lowercostsformobilityservices

•  Cellularaccessoperatorsseerevenueerosionissues

Live Handoff

•  ThetradiFonalmobileprovidersoperatewithexclusiveaccesstospectrumwithindefinedlocales(withassociatedlicensecosts)

•  AlternateaccesscompeFtorscanoperatealmostanywhereinunlicensedspectrumwithWiFinetworkservices

•  DevicesnowincludeplabormservicesthatsupportconnecFonagilityacrossdiverseaccessnetworks

•  CustomersseehigheruFlityand(hopefully)lowercostsformobilityservices

•  Cellularaccessoperatorsseerevenueerosionissues

The billion dollar quest

ion is: Who

gets to control this ha

ndoff

between licensed and

unregulated

radio access services?

The “basic” Mobile Stack Model

Access Network Services

OS Platform Library

Application

WiFi Cellular Bluetooth USB

WiFi Cellular USB

Access Network Services

The VPN approach

Raw IP

Application

Access Network Services

The VPN Application Approach: Hide the application traffic from both the local platform as well as the local network

Application Library

Virtual Connection Server

Virtual Connection Client

Access Network Services

The Application View

Raw IP

OS Platform Library

FBApplication

Access Network Services

The Application Approach: Facebook Fold the entire transport session control into the application

FBApplication Library

WiFi Cellular Bluetooth USB

Facebook DC

Access Network Services

MP-TCP controller - Siri

MP-TCP Server

MP-TCP OS Platform Library

Application

Access Network Services

The MP-TCP Approach: Apple’s Siri Application-Controlled Handoff Agility

Internet

WiFi Cellular USB

The cellular access operator’s preferred response

Access Network Services

OS Platform Library

Application

WiFi Cellular Bluetooth USB

PPP Context

PPP Context

The handoff to WiFi is completely controlled by the cellular access network operator, and a PPP context between the device and the operator is maintained

Internet WiFi Cellular USB

Access Network Services

Google in charge!

Virtual Connection Server

Virtual Connection Client

OS Platform Library

Application

Access Network Services

The Google Fi Approach: OS-Controlled Seamless Handoff Agility

Mobility as a Simple Utility

MobileAccessOperatorsarebeingpushedintoundisFnguisheduFlityroles– Nomorevoicepremiums– Erosivepressureondataservicemargins– PressurefromWiFiserviceoperators– OSandAppproviderssplimngawayfromcarrierconstraints

– MulF-InterfacesupportturnsmobiledevicesintoopportunisFcscavengers!

Mobility Paranoia

•  MobileDevicemanufacturersarebeingsqueezed(exceptperhapsApple!)

•  GoogleandApplenowcontroltheplabormspace•  Mutualtrustissuesareemergingbetweenthem–  SuchasApple’sAdBlockeriniOS9

•  Appsarenowturningontheirownversionsofparanoia!–  Inamarketthatistoppingoutinrevenuetermseachproviderisa7empFngtoprotectitselfbyringfencingitsrelaFonshipwiththeenduser

What we want

Consumerswantmoreforless– Thelove/haterelaFonshipwithadsandad-fundedservices

– Theriseofthecontentstreamers–  (much)higherdownloadspeeds–  (much)largerdatacaps– Lowerpremiums

CompeFFvepressureonproviderstorespondtothisconsumerpressure

What we can’t get!

ExclusiveUseradiospectrumistooexpensive– Highaccessspeedsrequiregreaterspectrumuseperendpointdevice

– WhichcanonlybemetwithdenserbasestaFondeployment(orloweraccessspeeds)

– Theincreasedspectrumdemandandthelackofapricepremiumforhighspeedservicesimplieslowerrevenueyieldfromtheradiospectrumaccesslicensecosts

– Andthereisnoendinsighttothisconundrum

Where now?

Hasexclusiveuseradiospectrumoutpriceditselfintoday’smarket?– ConsumerswantWiFiperformanceforWiFipricesfromthecellularradionetwork

– Andthat’saproblemwhenyouhavetopaylargesumsforanexclusiveusespectrumlicense!

Handing Off Mobiles

•  Withnoabilitytodropdatapriceswithouttakingahitontheirbo7omlinecellularaccessprovidershavelimitedmeanstorespond

•  Unlesstheycandropunitpricingandincreasedatacapsthenthesecellularaccessproviderspricingthemselvesoutoftheconsumermarket

•  CompeFFveWiFiaccessandapplicaFonhandoverapproachesareplacingpressureonthetradiFonalmobileoperator’smargins

•  IfthecellularproviderswantcheapercarriagethentheyneedtolookataugmenFngtheirofferingwithWiFibasestaFonhandoffinfrastructureandperformautomatedhandofffromthecellularnetworktoaWiFiaccessnetwork

Who is Handing Off to Whom?

Butthecellularoperatorhaslimitedcontroloverthehandset’sbehaviour!AndthehandsethaslimitedcontrolovertheOSbehaviour!AndtheOShaslimitedcontrolovertheapplicaFon’sbehaviour!

Where now for Mobiles?

TheunderlyingobservaFonhereisthatthemobilenetworkoperatorhaslostcontrolofthemobileaccessdeviceandtheservicesofferedacrossthemobilenetwork

Where now for Mobiles?

Andaperlosingthatcontrolthereisnowayback!

–  ThedeviceOSplabormvendorsandtheapplicaFonsarecharFngacoursethatisindirectconflictwiththemobilenetworkoperator’sdesires

–  TheyaremanagingtomoneFzethisfarmoreefficientlythanthemobilenetworkoperator

–  AppleandGooglearewinning(forthemoment!)

Where now for Mobiles? MobileoperatorsaretryingtoconfrontcompeFFvepressureswiththeirownWiFihandoffapproaches,whileOSplabormsandAppsaretryingtoplacethemselvesincontrolandconstrainthemobileprovidersintolimitedcellulardatarole

Where now for Mobiles? WhichmeansthatthereisincreasingpressuretoincreasethesharedunregulatedspectrumallocaFonandincreasingdiscontentwiththebehaviouroftheexclusivespectrumholders

–  PressureformoreregulatedexclusiveaccessspectrumallocaFonsfromtheincumbentoperators

–  Pressureformoreunregulatedopenaccess(WiFi)spectrumallocaFonsfromusersandalternateproviders

PublicPolicypressurebetweendirectlicensepaymentsfromincumbentsandindirecteconomicefficiencyoutcomesfromalternateusemodels

Where now for Mobiles? WhichmeansthatthereisincreasingpressuretoincreasethesharedunregulatedspectrumallocaFonandincreasingdiscontentwiththebehaviouroftheexclusivespectrumholders

–  PressureformoreregulatedexclusiveaccessspectrumallocaFonsfromtheincumbentoperators

–  Pressureformoreunregulatedopenaccess(WiFi)spectrumallocaFonsfromusersandalternateproviders

PublicPolicypressurebetweendirectlicensepaymentsfromincumbentsandindirecteconomicefficiencyoutcomesfromalternateusemodels

Mobility is here to sta

y – that’s for sure!

But the ten

sions between exclus

ive use and

shared access spectrum

models will continue

for some time

We are now

exploring MIMO antenna

technology and higher

frequencies to push

WiFI into Gbps

And the ce

llular folk are explori

ng 5G

technologies which ar

e also promising Gbps

throughput

Looking Forward (dimly)

Mobilityisjusttoohandy•  Chipswillgetsmaller•  Powerdrainwillgetsmaller•  ThesingleunitgeneralpurposecomputerandpackagedapplicaFonsmodelisunderpressuretochange

Exactlyhowitwillchangeisanyone’sguess•  Butitwillchange

That’s it!