An Update on Mobility in Today’s Internet
Transcript of An Update on Mobility in Today’s Internet
An Update on Mobility in Today’s Internet
Geoff Huston, APNIC Labs
November 2015
Why?
WhyshouldwebeconcernedaboutthemobileInternetenvironment?
Why?
WhyshouldwebeconcernedaboutthemobileInternetenvironment?
Because every
body else is!
Counting Platforms
h7p://statcounter.com/
8.5%4.3%
Counting Platforms
h7p://statcounter.com/
8.5%4.3%
Mobiles are now 40% of all visible devices
Counting the Money
h7p://statcounter.com/
8.5%4.3%
Mobiles are now 40% of all visible devices
Mobile access servic
es
represent
75% of all Access
Provider revenue
Mobile Production Numbers
2014:1.5billionunitsshipped
Factors:• Produc:onvolumesarebringingdowncomponentunitcost
(unitfabrica:oncostisclosetoUSD50)• AndroidisbringingdownsoFwareunitcost• Noneedfornewcontent-leverageoffthetheexis:ngwebuniverseofcontent
• ShiFawayfromthedesktopandthelaptopbythechipproduc:onindustryseekingnewmarketsfortheirproduc:oncapability
Who’s playing Android– 84%ofallsmartphoneshipmentsin2014– MulF-vendoradopFon– Androidalsoextendingintotabletsandlargescreens
AppleiPhone/iPad– 12%ofallsmartphoneshipmentsin2014– RevenuesforApple:$182Bin2014
Windows– 3%marketshare– MostlyLumiamodelswithNokia
Device Market Share
One Mobile Technology?
• GSMrevoluFonisedthemobileindustrybyofferingasingletechnologystandardandasinglebusinessmodelacrossalargepartofthemobilemarket
• RoamingjustworkedintheGSMworld• Hasthemobileindustrymanagedtostayinlockstepasitmovesintothe4Gworld?
One Mobile Technology?
• GSMrevoluFonisedthemobileindustrybyofferingasingletechnologystandardandasinglebusinessmodelacrossalargepartofthemobilemarket
• RoamingjustworkedintheGSMworld• Hasthemobileindustrymanagedtostayinlockstepasitmovesintothe4Gworld?
One Mobile Technology - Not!
Themobileindustryisnowveryheterogeneous– VariousspectrumallocaFonsandregulatoryconstraints
– VariousserviceobjecFves– VariousoperatorbusinessobjecFves(incumbentvschallenger)
– RadicallydifferentobjecFvesfromhandsetsuppliersvsnetworkcarriageoperators
– 4Gserviceslargelyshareonlythename“4G”–therestismorerandom!
Who’s in control? Mobiles!
Themobilemarketisthemarket“driver”forInternettechnology:– ThePCandlaptopmarketisinterminaldecline– Mobilesrepresentthehighestrevenuesector,andshowthehighestgrowthnumbers
– ThemobileMarketwasbornandraisedonNATs• TheIPv4modelforcellularmobileserviceissFllheavilybasedonCGNsandaliberaldoseofapplicaFonlevelproxiesandgateways
Implications for IPv6
ThetruedriverforIPv6adopFonintheInternetisinthemobilesector– IfmobileplabormswenttoIPv6theneveryoneelsewouldbeforcedtofollow!
– SowhatcanwesayaboutIPv6andmobiles?
The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets– IPv4accessnetwork
tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal(orunconvenFonal)6-in-4encapsulaFon– IPv6accessnetwork
Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons
AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons
– DualStackaccessnetwork
The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets– IPv4accessnetwork
tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon– IPv6accessnetwork
Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons
AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons
– DualStackaccessnetwork
This diversity implies that m
any operators have uniq
ue
requirements for network and d
evice capabilities
The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets– IPv4accessnetwork(3GPPmodel)
tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon– IPv6accessnetwork
Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons
AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons
– DualStackaccessnetwork
This diversity implies that m
any operators have uniq
ue
requirements for network and d
evice capabilities
Which implies the im
position of cost and com
plexity for the
service operators throug
h customization of technologies
The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets– IPv4accessnetwork(3GPPmodel)
tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon– IPv6accessnetwork
Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons
AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons
– DualStackaccessnetwork
This diversity implies that m
any operators have uniq
ue
requirements for network and d
evice capabilities
Which implies the im
position of cost and com
plexity for the
service operators throug
h customization of technologies
Which all adds
to the cost of service
to consumers
The Mobile IPv6 StoryTheapproachtoIPv6transiFonishighlyfragmentedacrosstheoperatorsandacrosshandsets– IPv4accessnetwork
tunnelIPv6inaconvenFonal6-in-4encapsulaFon– IPv6accessnetwork
Usedin464XLAT:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetworkandreversetranslateinthedevicetopresentIPv4interfacetoapplicaFons
AdvocatedbyApple:TranslateV4intoV6acrosstheaccessnetwork(withsupportofDNS64)andpresentIPv6interfacetoapplicaFons
– DualStackaccessnetwork
This diversity implies that m
any operators have uniq
ue
requirements for network and d
evice capabilities
Which implies the im
position of cost and com
plexity for the
service operators throug
h customization of technologies
Which all adds
to the cost of service
to consumers
Nobody wins from this fragmented transition scenario!
Mobile Devices and IPv6
iOS– UnFliOS9therewasnoOSpreferenceforIPv6
iOSusedamechanismthatwasmeanttoresultinanapproximate50/50splitbetweenIPv6andIPv4fordualstack
– BrowsersandotherappsmayaddtheirownIPv6selecFonbiasontopoftheOSlibrary
Mobile Devices and IPv6
iOSMeasurement:– WesawinAugust20151,216,594iOSdevicesaccessingDualStackservices64,740respondedinIPv6(5%ofseeniOSdevices)46,784preferredtouseIPv6
Mobile Devices and IPv6
iOS
– iOS9changedthisbehaviourtopreferIPv6indualstackcontexts• iOS9isreportedtousea25msbiasFmer
– Nocurrentlyplannedsupportfor464XLATinthedevice• AppleproposesaNAT64soluFontosingleprotocolaccessnetworks• ApplicaFonsare“encouraged”toensurethattheycanoperateinaIPv6environment,potenFallyassistedbyabackendNAT64gateway
Mobile Devices and IPv6
Android– NopreferenceforIPv6–usesamechanismthatshouldresultinanapproximate50/50splitbetweenIPv6andIPv4fordualstack• Nopubliccommitmenttochangethisbehaviour
– BrowsersandotherappsmayaddtheirownIPv6selecFonbias
Mobile Devices and IPv6
AndroidMeasurement– WesawinAugust20153,353,463Androiddevices
175,922respondedinIPv6(5%ofseenandroiddevices)151,754preferredtouseIPv6
Mobile Devices and IPv6
Android– NocurrentplanstoaddanybiastouseIPv6– Hassupportfor464XLAT– DoesnotsupportDHCPv6(prefersRAandPDframework)
It’s not just Transitional Complexities…
MobilesaremulF-interfacedevices:– Cellularradio
• Highunitcost,variablequalityandspeed,broadcoverage– WiFi
• Lowcost,be7erqualityandspeed,tethered-stylecoverage– Bluetooth
• Lowcost,verylimitedradius
– USB(Ethernet)• Lowcost,highqualityandspeed,physicallytethered
It’s not just Transitional Complexities…
MobilesaremulF-interfacedevices:– Cellularradio
• Highunitcost,variablequalityandspeed,broadcoverage– WiFi
• Lowcost,be7erqualityandspeed,tethered-stylecoverage– Bluetooth
• Lowcost,verylimitedradius
– USB(Ethernet)• Lowcost,highqualityandspeed,physicallytethered
Can we take advantage of
these
multiple interfaces to improve speed
and quality and also con
trol costs?
It’s not just Transitional Complexities…
WhichleadsmulF-interfacesupportandthema7erof“LiveHandoff”
Live Handoff
CananliveapplicaFonswitchbetweencellularradioandwirelessserviceswithoutdroppingthecall?
Live Handoff
CananliveapplicaFonswitchbetweencellularradioandwirelessserviceswithoutdroppingthecall?
Why is this an important que
stion?
Live Handoff
• ThetradiFonalmobileprovidersoperatewithexclusiveaccesstospectrumwithindefinedlocales(withassociatedlicensecosts)
• AlternateaccesscompeFtorscanoperatealmostanywhereinunlicensedspectrumwithWiFinetworkservices
• DevicesnowincludeplabormservicesthatsupportconnecFonagilityacrossdiverseaccessnetworks
• CustomersseehigheruFlityand(hopefully)lowercostsformobilityservices
• Cellularaccessoperatorsseerevenueerosionissues
Live Handoff
• ThetradiFonalmobileprovidersoperatewithexclusiveaccesstospectrumwithindefinedlocales(withassociatedlicensecosts)
• AlternateaccesscompeFtorscanoperatealmostanywhereinunlicensedspectrumwithWiFinetworkservices
• DevicesnowincludeplabormservicesthatsupportconnecFonagilityacrossdiverseaccessnetworks
• CustomersseehigheruFlityand(hopefully)lowercostsformobilityservices
• Cellularaccessoperatorsseerevenueerosionissues
The billion dollar quest
ion is: Who
gets to control this ha
ndoff
between licensed and
unregulated
radio access services?
The “basic” Mobile Stack Model
Access Network Services
OS Platform Library
Application
WiFi Cellular Bluetooth USB
WiFi Cellular USB
Access Network Services
The VPN approach
Raw IP
Application
Access Network Services
The VPN Application Approach: Hide the application traffic from both the local platform as well as the local network
Application Library
Virtual Connection Server
Virtual Connection Client
Access Network Services
The Application View
Raw IP
OS Platform Library
FBApplication
Access Network Services
The Application Approach: Facebook Fold the entire transport session control into the application
FBApplication Library
WiFi Cellular Bluetooth USB
Facebook DC
Access Network Services
MP-TCP controller - Siri
MP-TCP Server
MP-TCP OS Platform Library
Application
Access Network Services
The MP-TCP Approach: Apple’s Siri Application-Controlled Handoff Agility
Internet
WiFi Cellular USB
The cellular access operator’s preferred response
Access Network Services
OS Platform Library
Application
WiFi Cellular Bluetooth USB
PPP Context
PPP Context
The handoff to WiFi is completely controlled by the cellular access network operator, and a PPP context between the device and the operator is maintained
Internet WiFi Cellular USB
Access Network Services
Google in charge!
Virtual Connection Server
Virtual Connection Client
OS Platform Library
Application
Access Network Services
The Google Fi Approach: OS-Controlled Seamless Handoff Agility
Mobility as a Simple Utility
MobileAccessOperatorsarebeingpushedintoundisFnguisheduFlityroles– Nomorevoicepremiums– Erosivepressureondataservicemargins– PressurefromWiFiserviceoperators– OSandAppproviderssplimngawayfromcarrierconstraints
– MulF-InterfacesupportturnsmobiledevicesintoopportunisFcscavengers!
Mobility Paranoia
• MobileDevicemanufacturersarebeingsqueezed(exceptperhapsApple!)
• GoogleandApplenowcontroltheplabormspace• Mutualtrustissuesareemergingbetweenthem– SuchasApple’sAdBlockeriniOS9
• Appsarenowturningontheirownversionsofparanoia!– Inamarketthatistoppingoutinrevenuetermseachproviderisa7empFngtoprotectitselfbyringfencingitsrelaFonshipwiththeenduser
What we want
Consumerswantmoreforless– Thelove/haterelaFonshipwithadsandad-fundedservices
– Theriseofthecontentstreamers– (much)higherdownloadspeeds– (much)largerdatacaps– Lowerpremiums
CompeFFvepressureonproviderstorespondtothisconsumerpressure
What we can’t get!
ExclusiveUseradiospectrumistooexpensive– Highaccessspeedsrequiregreaterspectrumuseperendpointdevice
– WhichcanonlybemetwithdenserbasestaFondeployment(orloweraccessspeeds)
– Theincreasedspectrumdemandandthelackofapricepremiumforhighspeedservicesimplieslowerrevenueyieldfromtheradiospectrumaccesslicensecosts
– Andthereisnoendinsighttothisconundrum
Where now?
Hasexclusiveuseradiospectrumoutpriceditselfintoday’smarket?– ConsumerswantWiFiperformanceforWiFipricesfromthecellularradionetwork
– Andthat’saproblemwhenyouhavetopaylargesumsforanexclusiveusespectrumlicense!
Handing Off Mobiles
• Withnoabilitytodropdatapriceswithouttakingahitontheirbo7omlinecellularaccessprovidershavelimitedmeanstorespond
• Unlesstheycandropunitpricingandincreasedatacapsthenthesecellularaccessproviderspricingthemselvesoutoftheconsumermarket
• CompeFFveWiFiaccessandapplicaFonhandoverapproachesareplacingpressureonthetradiFonalmobileoperator’smargins
• IfthecellularproviderswantcheapercarriagethentheyneedtolookataugmenFngtheirofferingwithWiFibasestaFonhandoffinfrastructureandperformautomatedhandofffromthecellularnetworktoaWiFiaccessnetwork
Who is Handing Off to Whom?
Butthecellularoperatorhaslimitedcontroloverthehandset’sbehaviour!AndthehandsethaslimitedcontrolovertheOSbehaviour!AndtheOShaslimitedcontrolovertheapplicaFon’sbehaviour!
Where now for Mobiles?
TheunderlyingobservaFonhereisthatthemobilenetworkoperatorhaslostcontrolofthemobileaccessdeviceandtheservicesofferedacrossthemobilenetwork
Where now for Mobiles?
Andaperlosingthatcontrolthereisnowayback!
– ThedeviceOSplabormvendorsandtheapplicaFonsarecharFngacoursethatisindirectconflictwiththemobilenetworkoperator’sdesires
– TheyaremanagingtomoneFzethisfarmoreefficientlythanthemobilenetworkoperator
– AppleandGooglearewinning(forthemoment!)
Where now for Mobiles? MobileoperatorsaretryingtoconfrontcompeFFvepressureswiththeirownWiFihandoffapproaches,whileOSplabormsandAppsaretryingtoplacethemselvesincontrolandconstrainthemobileprovidersintolimitedcellulardatarole
Where now for Mobiles? WhichmeansthatthereisincreasingpressuretoincreasethesharedunregulatedspectrumallocaFonandincreasingdiscontentwiththebehaviouroftheexclusivespectrumholders
– PressureformoreregulatedexclusiveaccessspectrumallocaFonsfromtheincumbentoperators
– Pressureformoreunregulatedopenaccess(WiFi)spectrumallocaFonsfromusersandalternateproviders
PublicPolicypressurebetweendirectlicensepaymentsfromincumbentsandindirecteconomicefficiencyoutcomesfromalternateusemodels
Where now for Mobiles? WhichmeansthatthereisincreasingpressuretoincreasethesharedunregulatedspectrumallocaFonandincreasingdiscontentwiththebehaviouroftheexclusivespectrumholders
– PressureformoreregulatedexclusiveaccessspectrumallocaFonsfromtheincumbentoperators
– Pressureformoreunregulatedopenaccess(WiFi)spectrumallocaFonsfromusersandalternateproviders
PublicPolicypressurebetweendirectlicensepaymentsfromincumbentsandindirecteconomicefficiencyoutcomesfromalternateusemodels
Mobility is here to sta
y – that’s for sure!
But the ten
sions between exclus
ive use and
shared access spectrum
models will continue
for some time
We are now
exploring MIMO antenna
technology and higher
frequencies to push
WiFI into Gbps
And the ce
llular folk are explori
ng 5G
technologies which ar
e also promising Gbps
throughput
Looking Forward (dimly)
Mobilityisjusttoohandy• Chipswillgetsmaller• Powerdrainwillgetsmaller• ThesingleunitgeneralpurposecomputerandpackagedapplicaFonsmodelisunderpressuretochange
Exactlyhowitwillchangeisanyone’sguess• Butitwillchange
That’s it!