Post on 20-May-2015
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The End of Paleo:Is the Ancestral Health Movement Going Mainstream?
I Wouldn’t Bet on It!
Hamilton M. Stapell, PhDAssociate ProfessorDepartment of HistorySUNY New Paltz
Google searches “paleo diet”
2013
2010
New York Times Best sellers
2011 2012
For Idiots and Dummies…
2013 2013
PPN
Paleo Diet on The Dr. Oz Show
April 22, 2013
How long have you been living a paleo lifestyle?
Ancestral Health Online SurveyMarch 2013(n = 4691)
How long have you been living a paleo lifestyle?
85% within the past three years
85%
The Future?
• Thesis: The paleo movement will grow modestly, but will not go mainstream.
Outline:• Part I: Who goes paleo? And Why?
“A Special Kind of Person”
• Part II: Three Main Obstacles “Cultural, Physiological, Social, Oh my!”
• Part III: Common Counterarguments “Aren’t Things Different This Time?”
• Conclusions“Just the Beginning”
“Paleo”
• Definition: The effort to optimize human health today by examining our evolutionary or ancestral past.– Diet– Exercise– Sleep– Sun exposure– Social connections
“A Special Kind of Person”or
Part I:Who goes paleo? And why?
Who goes paleo? And Why?
• Two main reasons:1) People who are sick, and for whom
conventional medicine has failed (majority)
Who goes paleo? And Why?
• Two main reasons:1) People who are sick, and for whom
conventional medicine has failed (majority)2) People who are seeking performance,
namely physical and mental performance
What was your primary reason for going paleo?
What was your primary reason for going paleo?
“Weight loss” (31%) + “Recovery from illness” (21%) + “Other” (4%) = 56%
4%
What was your primary reason for going paleo?
11%
What was your primary reason for going paleo?
Who goes paleo? And Why?
• Two main reasons:1) People who are sick, and for whom
conventional medicine has failed (majority)2) People who are seeking performance,
namely physical and mental performance
Key commonality: High Motivation
“A Special Kind of Person”
• Highly motivated• Self directed• Willingness to challenge authority• Access to education and resources
Examples: personal trainers, coaches, small business owners, professionals, academics, consultants, entrepreneurs, etc.
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
74% hold bachelor’s degree or higherNational average: 30.4% (Census Bureau, Feb. 2012)
74%
What is the highest level of education you have completed?
5% hold Doctoral degreeNational average: less than 1% (Census Bureau, Feb. 2012)
What is your combined annual household income?
41% earn $100,000 or moreNational average: 15.9% (Census Bureau, Feb. 2012)
41%
What is your race?
National average: 72% white and shrinking (U.S. Census, 2010)
What is your gender?
What is your current age?
Mean age: 38 (standard deviation: 11) Age range: 18-85 years old
Mean age for men: 37 Mean age for women: 39
Middle aged! (35-54 Census Bureau)
Please indicate your current family structure.
68% in a committed relationship.
68%
Common Paleo Stereotypes:Vain, single, white, young men who eat lots of meat.
BodyBuilding.com, December 2010
Competitor MagazineMay 2012
NPR.orgJune 2012
Summary: Who goes paleo?Despite the media stereotypes…• Majority women (and growing)• “middle aged” (27-49 years old)• Overwhelmingly white• Highly educated• Relatively affluent• Married or in committed relationship• High avoidance of grains and legumes, but not
dairy and alcohol
Summary: And Why?• Two main reasons:1) People who are sick, and for whom
conventional medicine has failed (majority)2) People who are seeking performance,
namely physical and mental performance
“A Special Kind of Person”• Self directed• Willingness to challenge authority• Access to education and resources• High motivation
“Cultural, Physiological, Social, Oh my!”or
Part II:Three Main Obstacles
1) Cultural Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods are woven
into the fabric of our culture.
1) Cultural Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods are woven
into the fabric of our culture.• Neolithic foods allowed for civilization:1) Division of labor2) Accumulation of wealth3) Social hierarchy4) New technologies
Without this…
Flickr.com
…you wouldn’t have that.
Wikimedia.org
1) Cultural Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods are woven
into the fabric of our culture.• Neolithic foods allowed for civilization:1) Division of labor2) Accumulation of wealth3) Social hierarchy4) New technologies• Thus, it’s going to be hard to remove
them from our daily lives.
“Lord, give us this day our daily bread.” Matthew 6:9-13 and Luke 11:2-4
Wikipedia.org
Sacrament of Communion
TimesUnion.com
Sacrament of Communion
Ivarfjeld.com
Matzo and Passover
foodandwine.hu
Rice and Asian Cultures
mygourmetconnection.com
Corn in Latin America
Jackandjilltravel.com
Can you imagine this…
weddingwomen.com
…without that?
bellethemagazine.com
Can you imagine this…
Wikipedia.org
…without that?
Foodchannel.com
Mom’s Apple Pie
Feastonthecheap.com
American Cheese!
American Cheese!
2) Physiological Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods – and simple
carbohydrates in particular – are addictive.
2) Physiological Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods – and simple
carbohydrates in particular – are addictive.
• They taste good.
Wikimedia.org
Whole Food’s Cookie Bar
August 2013
Google searches “paleo diet”
“paleo diet” and “cupcake”
2) Physiological Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods – and simple
carbohydrates in particular – are addictive.
• They taste good.• They tap into an evolutionary need.
Scarcity
Overabundance
evilcyber.com
2) Physiological Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods – and simple
carbohydrates in particular – are addictive.
• They taste good.• They tap into an evolutionary need.• The food game is “fixed” today.
Corporations engineer:
• “the ‘bliss point’ of sugary beverages”
• “the ‘mouthfeel’ of fat”
2) Physiological Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods – and simple
carbohydrates in particular – are addictive.
• They taste good.• They tap into an evolutionary need.• The food game is “fixed” today.• Neolithic/Industrial foods = 70% of diet
2) Physiological Obstacles• Key point: Neolithic foods – and simple
carbohydrates in particular – are addictive.
• They taste good.• They tap into an evolutionary need.• The food game is “fixed” today.• Neolithic/Industrial foods = 70% of diet• Research evidence
3) Social (“Values”) Obstacles• Key point: Today we see a sense of
entitlement, which commonly privileges transitory “fun” over true mental and physical “flourishing” (eudemonia).
3) Social (“Values”) Obstacles• Key point: Today we see a sense of
entitlement, which commonly privileges transitory “fun” over true mental and physical “flourishing” (eudemonia).
• “I deserve it.”
3) Social (“Values”) Obstacles• Key point: Today we see a sense of
entitlement, which commonly privileges transitory “fun” over true mental and physical “flourishing” (eudemonia).
• “I deserve it.”• Instant gratification.
3) Social (“Values”) Obstacles• Key point: Today we see a sense of
entitlement, which commonly privileges transitory “fun” over true mental and physical “flourishing” (eudemonia).
• “I deserve it.”• Instant gratification.• “I want to be happy!”
July 8, 2013
3) Social (“Values”) Obstacles• Key point: Today we see a sense of
entitlement, which commonly privileges transitory “fun” over true mental and physical “flourishing” (eudemonia).
• “I deserve it.”• Instant gratification.• “I just want to be happy!”• American Creed: “Life, Liberty, Happiness”
“Traditional forms of morality that required extensive social cooperation in relation to a hard reality defined by scarcity have largely collapsed and been replaced with this New Age therapeutic culture of well-being that does not require obedience or even faith — and certainly not feelings of guilt.”
“[Personal] well-being has become the primary goal of human life.”
Alternative Goals (individual and society)
• Social justice• Artistic creation• Reduction of suffering• Athletic performance• Production of knowledge• Sexual ecstasy• “Eudemonia”
“Fun” as a Cross-generational Issue
“Fun” as a Cross-generational Issue
Metroatlantachamber.com
“Fun” as a Cross-generational Issue
combatnetworks.com
“Fun” as a Cross-generational Issue
durhamregionalshoptalk.com
The Varieties of Fun and Escapism
The Varieties of Fun and Escapism
frontroomcinema.com
The Varieties of Fun and Escapism
frontroomcinema.com cirvue.com
The Varieties of Fun and Escapism
frontroomcinema.com pixelvolt.com cirvue.com
The Varieties of Fun and Escapism
frontroomcinema.com pixelvolt.com cirvue.com
books.usatoday.com
The Varieties of Fun and Escapism
frontroomcinema.com pixelvolt.com cirvue.com
books.usatoday.com williamgarrow.com
The Varieties of Fun and Escapism
frontroomcinema.com pixelvolt.com cirvue.com
books.usatoday.com williamgarrow.com drugfree.org
“The Reality Problem”
• “[new technology and media] allow us to be private in public”
• “profound alteration in our sense of what is truth and what is fiction”
• “the reality problem is the preeminent cultural event of our day”
Anti-intellectualism and PseudoskepticismWhich of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings?
Anti-intellectualism and PseudoskepticismWhich of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings?
Anti-intellectualism and PseudoskepticismWhich of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings?
National Poll: 32%
14%
46%
[7% No Opinion] (Gallup, May 2012)
Vive la Revolution!• The ancestral lifestyle is nothing less than
revolutionary.
Vive la Revolution!• The ancestral lifestyle is nothing less than
revolutionary.
• “Agriculture – particularly grains – and the state are, and always have been, mutually-dependent and mutually-reinforcing. Disengaging from the system of industrial agriculture and branded or otherwise “value-added” food products is a fundamentally revolutionary act that erodes GDP and the tax base in turn.”
--Andrew Badenoch, PaleoFX13
Vive la Revolution!• The ancestral lifestyle is nothing less than
revolutionary.
• “If we were to magically convert the entire world to paleo … that would tank the economy.”
--Mark Sisson Andreas Eenfeldt interview 2012
Summary: 3 Main Obstacles1) Cultural: Neolithic foods are woven into
the fabric of our culture.
2) Physiological: Neolithic foods – and simple carbohydrates in particular – are addictive.
3) Social/Value: Today we see a sense of entitlement, which commonly privileges transitory “fun” over true mental and physical “flourishing” (eudemonia).
Other Obstacles:
1) Large vested interests (agribusiness, Monsanto, beef industry, USDA, etc.)
2) Professional organizations (AMA, American Dietetic Association, etc.)
3) Relative cost and inconvenience
“Aren’t Things Different This Time?”or
Part III:Common Counterarguments
1) “Today we have the internet!”
• “This time is different!”
1) “Today we have the internet!”
• “This time is different!”• “With the internet , social media, and new
technology we are going to change the world!”
1) “Today we have the internet!”
• “This time is different!”• “With the internet , social media, and new
technology we are going to change the world!”
• My response: Education ≠ Behavior Change
Education ≠ Behavior Change
chifi.com
Wikimedia.com
Education ≠ Behavior Change
time.com time.comtime.com
Australia Canada Uruguay
Education ≠ Behavior Change
bloomberg.com
1) “Today we have the internet!”
• “This time is different!”• “With the internet , social media, and new
technology we are going to change the world!”
• My response: Education ≠ Behavior Change
• Education + Motivation + Ability + Triggers = Behavior Change
2) “We are close to a tipping point!”
• “Recent rapid growth”• “The best information rises to the top!”
2) “We are close to a tipping point!”
• “Recent rapid growth”• “The best information rises to the top”
• My response: We are nowhere close to a tipping point. (Law of Diffusion of Innovation)
Law of Diffusion of Innovation• Simon Sinek’s TED Talk 2009:
“How Great Leaders Inspire Action”
Law of Diffusion of Innovation
How big is Paleo today?
• Difficult question
How big is Paleo today?
• Difficult question• National telephone survey needed
How big is Paleo today?
• Difficult question• National telephone survey needed
• Estimate Size:1) Empirical data (book
sales, page views, podcast downloads) 2) Ask the experts (Loren
Cordain, Dallas Hartwig, Paul Jaminet, Chris Kresser, Mark Sisson, Robb Wolf)
How big is Paleo today?
• 1,000,000 – 3,000,000 in the USA
How big is Paleo today?
• 1,000,000 – 3,000,000 in the USA
• Population of the USA: 310,000,000
How big is Paleo today?
• 1,000,000 – 3,000,000 in the USA
• Population of the USA: 310,000,000
• Paleo movement = 1% of the population
Law of Diffusion of Innovation
1%
Law of Diffusion of Innovation
1%
15-18%
Law of Diffusion of Innovation
1%
15-18%
Law of Diffusion of Innovation
14% Belief in Evolution
Law of Diffusion of Innovation
2%
2) “We are close to a tipping point!”
• “Recent rapid growth”• “The best information rises to the top”
• My response: We are nowhere close to a tipping point. (Law of Diffusion of Innovation)
In your estimation, how long before a majority of your country's population lives a paleo lifestyle?
“Just the Beginning”or
Conclusions
Starting the Conversation…
• Ancestral Health Symposium 2012, Boston:
“Will the paleo movement go mainstream? Or will it fade away like the Physical Culture Movement did 100 years ago?”
sethroberts.net
A Paleo Trilogy• I. The Past: AHS12
“Ancestral Health in Historical Context: From Physical Culture to the Primal Life”
• II. The Present: PaleoFX13 “Stereotypes and Reality: Demographics, Common Practices, and Motivating Factors of the Ancestral Health Movement Today”
• III. The Future: AHS13 “The End of Paleo: Is the Ancestral Health Movement Going Mainstream? Wouldn’t Bet on It!”
Where is paleo headed?
• We can’t take growth for granted.
• Identify the main obstacles.
• Develop strategies to overcome them.
Special Thanks to:
• Eliza Barclay• Dr. Loren Cordain• Dallas Hartwig• Dr. Paul Jaminet• Kendall Kendrick• Chris Kresser• Katherine Morrison
• Dan Pardi• Janice M. Rosa• David B. Schwartz • Heather Semelmacher• Mark Sisson• Robb Wolf!
Contact Information:
Dr. Hamilton M. StapellDepartment of History
SUNY New Paltz
stapellh@newpaltz.edu
Bonus Material!
Conclusions: Connecting Ancestral Health to Physical Culture
• Both are (middle class) reactions to rapid social, economic, and technological change:
Industrial Revolution Digital Revolution
Standard “Paleo” Biography“Due to a weak constitution and/or bad habits, the individual’s early years are a steady descent through levels of vitality, until semi-invalidism is approached. A shock of realization of poor health at last fires a renunciation of self-indulgence and a search for the hygienic truth. Reading and self-experimentation reveal one or a few dietary (or other physical) practices to be the required tool(s) with which to rebuild health. The well-being following his reform convinces the hygienist his program is the secret to all self and social improvement, and gives him the energy to compose the articles and books of health wisdom with which he bombards the public until his death.”
--James Whorton, Crusaders for Fitness, 1982
The “Secret Handshake” Problem
“Part of the thing I like about it [Paleo] is that it’s a closed community, and that it is kind of exclusive. I dig that.”
-PaleoFX13 audience comment