Post on 17-Jan-2016
Adapting Water Resource
Management to Climate Change
Impacts
Dr. Lee Tryhorn
Adapting Water Resource
Management to Climate Change
Impacts
Dr. Lee Tryhorn
Talk Outline
• Overview of NYS ClimAID project• Evidence of a changing climate• Climate model predictions for NYS• Key vulnerabilities for NYS• Adaptations
2Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
3
Climate Risk
Adaptation
CLIMATE-PROTECTED NYSCLIMATE-PROTECTED NYSReduced Vulnerability and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
EconomicsEquity and Environmental Justice
Science-Policy Linkages
Water Sector Team
• Rebecca Schneider (co-leader, Cornell) • Andrew McDonald (co-leader, Cornell)• Art DeGaetano (climate, Cornell) • Alan Frei (hydrology modeler, CUNY)• Susan Riha (Director, NYS WRI) • Steve Shaw (hydrologist, Cornell)• Lee Tryhorn (climate, Cornell)• Contact: Lee.Tryhorn@cornell.edu
4PIs: C. Rosensweig (Columbia), A. DeGaetano (Cornell), W. Solecki (CUNY)
Talk Outline
• Overview of NYS ClimAID project• Evidence of a changing climate• Climate model predictions for NYS• Key vulnerabilities for NYS• Adaptations
5Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Precipitation Increases
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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Ext
rem
e ev
ents
(5-
yr a
vera
ge)
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Decreases in snow cover
7Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Increase in lake-effect snow
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Talk Outline
• Overview of NYS ClimAID project• Evidence of a changing climate• Climate model predictions for NYS• Key vulnerabilities for NYS• Adaptations
9Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Future projections
• Increased winter precipitation with more falling as rain.• Increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall
events, coupled with the potential for more summer drought
10Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Future projections
Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences 11
Northeast Climate Impact Assessment, 2007
Talk Outline
• Overview of NYS ClimAID project• Evidence of a changing climate• Climate model predictions for NYS• Key vulnerabilities for NYS• Adaptations
12Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Vulnerabilities: More flooding?
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In New York,flood damageswere $54.8 million in 2006
Albany
AlleganyBroomeCattaraugus
Cayu
ga
Chautauqua
Chemung
Chen
ango
Clinton
ColumbiaCortl
and
Delaware
Dutc
hess
Erie
Essex
Franklin
FultonGenesee
Greene
Hamilton
Her
kim
er
Jefferson
Lewis
Living
ston
Madison
Monroe
Montg.
NassauNY City
Niagara OneidaOnondagaOntario
Orange
OrleansOswego
Wayne
SteubenTioga
Tompkins
Schuyler
Ulster
Westchester
Putnam
Sullivan
RocklandSuffolk
Otsego Rensselaer
Schenectady
Was
hing
ton
Schohari
e
St. Lawrence
Warren
Wyoming
Yates Sene
ca
Saratoga
0x
1x
2x
3x
4x
6x
7x
Flood events per county from1994- 2006
(FEMA disaster designation)
Albany
AlleganyBroomeCattaraugus
Cayu
ga
Chautauqua
Chemung
Chen
ango
Clinton
ColumbiaCortl
and
Delaware
Dutc
hess
Erie
Essex
Franklin
FultonGenesee
Greene
Hamilton
Her
kim
er
Jefferson
Lewis
Living
ston
Madison
Monroe
Montg.
NassauNY City
Niagara OneidaOnondagaOntario
Orange
OrleansOswego
Wayne
SteubenTioga
Tompkins
Schuyler
Ulster
Westchester
Putnam
Sullivan
RocklandSuffolk
Otsego Rensselaer
Schenectady
Was
hing
ton
Schohari
e
St. Lawrence
Warren
Wyoming
Yates Sene
ca
Saratoga
0x
1x
2x
3x
4x
6x
7x
Flood events per county from1994- 2006
(FEMA disaster designation)
Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Vulnerabilities: More flooding?
14Identified from 50 yr long USGS discharge record
Ten-Mile Creek (Dutchess Ct.)
1984 5 consecutive days of moderate rain
1955 Hurricanes Diane & Connie
Vulnerabilities
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less snow / more rain
larger storm rainfall amounts
longer growing season
+ + more ET/ drier soils+ = ?
Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Vulnerabilities: Design criteria
Central Park1940 - 1960 1970-2006
2-yr 3.10 3.8650-yr 6.21 7.31100-yr 7.22 8.39
Ithaca2-yr 2.43 2.4950-yr 4.46 5.73100-yr 5.08 6.86
16Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs)
• already occur with rainfall > 1”/hr
• 24 billion gallons untreated sewage/yr enter Great Lakes (Sierra Legal rpt 12/06)
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Vulnerabilities: Short-term droughts
• Increased frequency of short-terms droughts• Impacts on crops, livestock, reservoirs, and
municipal well supplies.
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2.9 million acres of agricultural land in NY (NASS, 2006)
$ 3.1 billion value ofagricultural products (NASS, 2006)
Approximately 2.5% of NY agricultural land is irrigated (NASS, 2002).
Drought is already a significant production constraint in many years.
Vulnerabilities: Sea-level rise
• Sea level rise with shoreline flooding, salt water intrusion and groundwater degradation in New York’s coastal areas.
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Three million people on Long Island are dependent on groundwater resources
Talk Outline
• Overview of NYS ClimAID project• Evidence of a changing climate• Climate model predictions for NYS• Key vulnerabilities for NYS• Adaptations
20Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Dealing with climate change through adaptation
21Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
NYS Water Resources
• 40 inches of average annual precipitation• 1,236 sq. miles of lakes, ponds, & reservoirs• 577 miles of Great Lakes shoreline• 52,337 miles of rivers and streams• 1,530 sq. miles of estuaries, bays, and harbors• 3,750 sq. miles of freshwater wetlands• Extensive groundwater resources
22Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Multiple Scales of Adaptation
1. Local – Context specific adaptation strategies2. Regional – Leadership3. Statewide government role4. National context for planning and policy
Temporal scale: <10 yrs, 10-40 yrs, +40yrs
23Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Local1. Increase monitoring for water supply2. Engage volunteer groups and private citizens to multiply agency
efforts in monitoring and management. Give them training and tools.
3. Water quality:- Disconnect existing CSOs- Update manure spreading practices - Require septic system maintenance
4. Phased withdrawal from high-flood risk, floodplain areas
– Conduct buy-outs after floods– Move wastewater treatment plants– Transfer land to public parks
24Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Regional strategies
• Lead short, long-term planning tailored to the region • Prioritize climate change issues and needs – Planning documents will be key to access funds for
implementation as they become available via Federal Stimulus/ other.
• Identify a centrally-located lead office to share resources, expertise, demonstration sites with surrounding region
• Organize monitoring networks and data collection - E.g. water supply, floods, droughts.
• Organize rapid response plan and team
25Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State Gov Role• Mainstream climate change into all planning and
regulations – update to reflect most recent climate data• Funnel state and federal funds to implement projects• Institutionalize mechanisms for long-term monitoring and
centralized data collection • Provide guidance and technical training • Identify and alleviate bottlenecks inhibiting adoption• Develop criteria for prioritization in face of limiting
resources (e.g. vulnerability, ecosystem value, economics.) • Support targeted research
26Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
A National context...
27Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
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Greater political and economic pressure for inter-basin water transfers to water-stressed regions, both nationally and internationally?
The Great Lakes Basin contains 95% of the fresh surface waters in North America and 20% of the freshwater globally.
Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Adaptation planning in a national context
• Pro-active planning of a statewide water program, including water conservation practices and pricing controls to manage during droughts, or export .
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Questions?
30Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences