ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

A Spatial Assessment of Livestock Population and Market Access

Helina TilahunEmily Schmidt

IFPRI ESSP-II

Ethiopian Economic Association ConferenceJuly 19-21, 2012Addis Ababa

1

2

Overview• What are the current trends in cattle, sheep and goat

population?– Where are most of the livestock population located?

• Herd composition

• Travel time

• Pressure on grazing land?

• Links smallholder livestock population data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data.

3

Current Trends• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow,

with the highland regions producing the largest share of cattle, sheep and goats.

• Livestock population (cattle, sheep, and goat) increased 22 percentage points between 2005 and 2008.

– Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent of cattle in 2007/08.

4

2005/06 2006/07 2007/080

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000Cattle Population

CSAFAO

2005/06 2006/07 2007/080

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000Sheep and Goat Population

CSAFAO

Source: Author’s calculations; CSA: Agricultural Sample Survey (2005–2008) and FAO (2005–2008)

7

Herd Composition: Ethiopia

• Sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population in all regions.

• In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than sheep and goat.

• By 2007/08, sheep and goat population dominated in Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Harari.

8

Ethiopia: Sheep and Goat to Cattle Ratio (2000 – 2008)

Region 2001/02* 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08Tigray 0.92 1.22 1.27 1.41Afar 2.88 3.11 3.05 3.19Amhara 0.87 1.23 1.28 1.27Oromiya 0.49 0.74 0.76 0.80Somali 2.27 2.41 2.90 4.48Benishangul Gumuz 0.84 1.09 1.33 1.26SNNP 0.66 0.68 0.78 0.69Gambella 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.48Harari 0.73 1.00 1.03 1.13Addis Ababa 0.46 0.58 0.49 0.46Dire Dawa 2.31 4.64 4.77 4.30

Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2001) and Agricultural Sample Survey (2005-2008)

9

Ratio of Sheep and Goat to Cattle (1990 – 2009)

Ethiopia 2000 Ethiopia 2005 Ethiopia 2009 Kenya 2000 Kenya 2005 Kenya 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Cattle Shoats

Mill

ion

head

of l

ives

tock Sheep

and goats

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

10

Market Access and Livestock Population• Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets has improved

considerably between 2000 and 2008.– Better road infrastructure enables the highland areas to prevail as primary supplier of livestock for

the domestic markets in Ethiopia (FEWS NET, 2007). – Although the cost of trucking livestock is higher compared to trekking, traders and producers prefer

trucking fattened animals in order to avoid weight loss (Gebremedhin et al. 2007).

• Data suggest that cattle population is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock market.

• In 2001/02, 57 percent of cattle population in Amhara region were located within 5 hours of market, in 2007/08 this figure reached 73 percent; Oromia from 64 to 81, SNNP from 60 to 78.

• Sheep and goat population within 5 hours travel time to a market increased.– But not as dependent to accessibility as cattle population.

13

Percent of Cattle Populationwithin 5 hours of a Livestock Market

Tigray

Afar

Amhara

Oromiya

Somali

Benishangul G

umuz

SNNPR

GambellaHara

ri

Addis Ababa

Dire D

awa -

20

40

60

80

100

70

13

57 64

20 10

63 77

28

73 81

16 16

78

20012007

Percent of Sheep and Goat Populationwithin 5 hours of a Livestock Market

-

20

40

60

80

100

62

10

44

65

10 4

43

76

15

66

83

7 8

66

20012007

17

Livestock Population and Grazing Pressure• Pressure on grazing land is increasing:

– greater human population density,– larger herd sizes, and – relatively fixed grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and

Nega 2000).

• To approximate measure of livestock density per square kilometer of grazing land, we have paired the landcover data produced by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP, 2000) with the estimated woreda livestock population figures from 2001/02 through 2007/08.

20

East Africa: Tropical Livestock Unit per sq. km of Land (thousands)

Country CattleSheep and

Goat TLU Total

km2 TLU per

km2

Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30

Djibouti 289

1,223

325

22

15

Eritrea

1,784

6,309

1,880

118

16

Kenya 10,183

20,743

9,202

546

17

Somalia

5,452 45,026

8,319

633

13

Uganda 11,518 8245

8,887

200 44

Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010)

21

Conclusions

• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share.

• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population.

• Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occurring in the highland regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market.

• In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle population in the four major highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel time of a market

• Sheep and goat population seems less dependent on accessibility• Afar, Benishangul Gumuz

Conclusions (2)

• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing

• Further research on landcover change and livestock growth in the highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land / environmental viability in coming years.