Spatial synchrony of population fluctuations: causes and consequences
A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access
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ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE A Spatial Assessment of Livestock Population and Market Access Helina Tilahun Emily Schmidt IFPRI ESSP-II Ethiopian Economic Association Conference July 19-21, 2012 Addis Ababa 1
description
Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall
Transcript of A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access
ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE
A Spatial Assessment of Livestock Population and Market Access
Helina TilahunEmily Schmidt
IFPRI ESSP-II
Ethiopian Economic Association ConferenceJuly 19-21, 2012Addis Ababa
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Overview• What are the current trends in cattle, sheep and goat
population?– Where are most of the livestock population located?
• Herd composition
• Travel time
• Pressure on grazing land?
• Links smallholder livestock population data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data.
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Current Trends• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow,
with the highland regions producing the largest share of cattle, sheep and goats.
• Livestock population (cattle, sheep, and goat) increased 22 percentage points between 2005 and 2008.
– Oromiya, Amhara and SNNP regions produced 87 percent of cattle in 2007/08.
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2005/06 2006/07 2007/080
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000Cattle Population
CSAFAO
2005/06 2006/07 2007/080
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000Sheep and Goat Population
CSAFAO
Source: Author’s calculations; CSA: Agricultural Sample Survey (2005–2008) and FAO (2005–2008)
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Herd Composition: Ethiopia
• Sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population in all regions.
• In 2000/2001 a majority of regions produced more cattle than sheep and goat.
• By 2007/08, sheep and goat population dominated in Tigray, Amhara, Benishangul Gumuz, Harari.
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Ethiopia: Sheep and Goat to Cattle Ratio (2000 – 2008)
Region 2001/02* 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08Tigray 0.92 1.22 1.27 1.41Afar 2.88 3.11 3.05 3.19Amhara 0.87 1.23 1.28 1.27Oromiya 0.49 0.74 0.76 0.80Somali 2.27 2.41 2.90 4.48Benishangul Gumuz 0.84 1.09 1.33 1.26SNNP 0.66 0.68 0.78 0.69Gambella 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.48Harari 0.73 1.00 1.03 1.13Addis Ababa 0.46 0.58 0.49 0.46Dire Dawa 2.31 4.64 4.77 4.30
Source: Authors’ calculations; CSA: Agricultural Census (2001) and Agricultural Sample Survey (2005-2008)
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Ratio of Sheep and Goat to Cattle (1990 – 2009)
Ethiopia 2000 Ethiopia 2005 Ethiopia 2009 Kenya 2000 Kenya 2005 Kenya 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Cattle Shoats
Mill
ion
head
of l
ives
tock Sheep
and goats
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
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Market Access and Livestock Population• Transportation infrastructure and access to livestock markets has improved
considerably between 2000 and 2008.– Better road infrastructure enables the highland areas to prevail as primary supplier of livestock for
the domestic markets in Ethiopia (FEWS NET, 2007). – Although the cost of trucking livestock is higher compared to trekking, traders and producers prefer
trucking fattened animals in order to avoid weight loss (Gebremedhin et al. 2007).
• Data suggest that cattle population is higher within 5 hours of a major livestock market.
• In 2001/02, 57 percent of cattle population in Amhara region were located within 5 hours of market, in 2007/08 this figure reached 73 percent; Oromia from 64 to 81, SNNP from 60 to 78.
• Sheep and goat population within 5 hours travel time to a market increased.– But not as dependent to accessibility as cattle population.
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Percent of Cattle Populationwithin 5 hours of a Livestock Market
Tigray
Afar
Amhara
Oromiya
Somali
Benishangul G
umuz
SNNPR
GambellaHara
ri
Addis Ababa
Dire D
awa -
20
40
60
80
100
70
13
57 64
20 10
63 77
28
73 81
16 16
78
20012007
Percent of Sheep and Goat Populationwithin 5 hours of a Livestock Market
-
20
40
60
80
100
62
10
44
65
10 4
43
76
15
66
83
7 8
66
20012007
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Livestock Population and Grazing Pressure• Pressure on grazing land is increasing:
– greater human population density,– larger herd sizes, and – relatively fixed grazing land resources. (Benin et al., 2002; Degefe and
Nega 2000).
• To approximate measure of livestock density per square kilometer of grazing land, we have paired the landcover data produced by the Woody Biomass Inventory and Strategic Planning Project (WBISPP, 2000) with the estimated woreda livestock population figures from 2001/02 through 2007/08.
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East Africa: Tropical Livestock Unit per sq. km of Land (thousands)
Country CattleSheep and
Goat TLU Total
km2 TLU per
km2
Ethiopia 41,699 41,291 33,318 1,100 30
Djibouti 289
1,223
325
22
15
Eritrea
1,784
6,309
1,880
118
16
Kenya 10,183
20,743
9,202
546
17
Somalia
5,452 45,026
8,319
633
13
Uganda 11,518 8245
8,887
200 44
Source: Author’s calculations and Cecchi et al. (2010)
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Conclusions
• Livestock population in Ethiopia continues to grow, with the highland regions producing the largest share.
• Data comparing herd composition suggest that the sheep and goat population is increasing compared to cattle population.
• Data suggest that a large majority of growth is occurring in the highland regions, within 5 hours of a livestock market.
• In 2007/08, more than 75 percent of cattle population in the four major highland regions occurred within 5 hours travel time of a market
• Sheep and goat population seems less dependent on accessibility• Afar, Benishangul Gumuz
Conclusions (2)
• Pressure on grazing land is also increasing
• Further research on landcover change and livestock growth in the highlands is necessary in order to understand pasture land / environmental viability in coming years.
