Post on 22-Feb-2016
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A CONTRARIAN ANALYSIS
Stan GrossmanJim EpleyDavid MillerMeredith Hollowell
GGS 68410 February 2011
Secretary Colin Powell’s speech to the UN Security Council, 05 June 2003
Group DaVinci
Agenda
Profile of Saddam Hussein Team B Alternative Devil’s Advocate Deconstruction What If Scenario Conclusions
Saddam Hussein – Profile
Judicious political calculator Commitments and loyalty are matters of
circumstance, and circumstances change Nothing must be permitted to stand in
“the great struggler’s” messianic path Messianic ambition for unlimited power
dreams will be realized when the Arab nation is unified under one strong leader – Hussein
Will go to whatever lengths are necessary to achieve his goals
Saddam Hussein – Profile
Three main threats after 1996: Increased Security Vulnerabilities Strengthening International Support Increased Importance of WMD Program
Defying the international community on WMD is a regular reminder to the military of his courage in defying the superior adversary
Saddam Hussein of Iraq: A Political Psychology Profile
Jerrold M. Post, M.D.
Stan Grossman
Team B Alternative
Hypothesis
Saddam required at least the appearance of weapons of mass destruction to maintain his powerful, threatening image in the region, and to maintain the loyalty of his military.
Is it possible that this was a giant bluff to maintain his image of strength?
Method of Deception Evaluate the chain of evidence and conclude
that the links are solid and conclusive, or not It is the job of a disinfo artist to interfere with
these evaluationsTwenty-Five Ways To Suppress Truth: The Rules of DisinformationH. Michael Sweeney
The Ladder of InferenceMind Tools Ltd.
“Evidence-1”
26 November & 20 January tapes Misinterpretation – dual meanings “evacuated” – to a central location for
destruction? “destroy” message – provides
implication of something to hide while performing simple housekeeping
“Evidence-2”
Hard drives at weapons facilities replaced
One scientist possessed documents at home Misdirection – shell game Make world believe that weapons exist Fabricate mantle of willyness – much
admired trait
“Evidence-3” Satellite photos of weapons
movement Misdirection – shell game Fake movement designed to infer
existence Provide known “indicators” that can be
false
“Evidence-4”
Accused UN inspectors of espionage Big lie Bluff and delaying tactic Put “enemy” on the defensive
“Evidence-5”
Scientists warned not to cooperate with UN inspectors
Received counter-intelligence training False implications – appearance of guilt Implied threat infers guilt Appearance of hiding things
“Evidence-6”
Defector provides details and returns of Iraq to his death under suspicious circumstances Whatever lengths - ruthless Send false information Then eliminate the messenger to
prevent recant
“Evidence-7”
Testimony by Iraqi officers to NBC and delivery mechanisms Misinformation – “whistleblower” vs.
adminstration Provide false statements from
“knowledgeable” sources Complaint – no proof of destruction
provided; no hard proof of existence provided either
“Evidence-8”
Intercepted communications on dual use items Play up well documented chemical
warfare history “Why should any of us give Iraq the
benefit of the doubt?” Misdirection – exactly the point
“Evidence-9”
Acquisition and construction of missile and airborne WMD delivery vehicles Misdirection – provide what the expect to
see Easy, low-cost, anticipated props to
imply capability
Jim Epley
Devil’s Advocate Deconstruction
Devil’s Advocate Analysis
LEGO breakdown and reassemble process: Outline the mainline judgment and key assumptions and
characterize the evidence supporting that current analytic view.
Select one or more assumptions—stated or not—that appear the most susceptible to challenge.
Review the information used to determine whether any is of questionable validity, whether deception is possibly indicated, or whether major gaps exist.
Highlight the evidence that could support an alternative hypothesis or contradicts the current thinking.
Present to the group the findings that demonstrate there are flawed assumptions, poor quality evidence, or possible deception at work.
Consider drafting a separate contrarian paper that lays out the arguments for a different analytic conclusion if the review uncovers major analytic flaws.
No Effort to Comply with Resolution
Failure to Cooperate
HUMINT SIGINT
Deceive
IMINT
“Evidence-1” 26 November & 20 January tapes
Powell Evacuate, not destroy Effort to hide intent
Devil’s Advocate
“evacuated” – to a central location for destruction? Arabic-to-English Linguists are in short-supply & being human, aren’t
100% accurate . Arabic words for : 1. Evacuate, 2. Remove, and 3. Abolish sound
similar when spoken (2 of 3 begin with an “IL” sound) SIGINT Linguist may have gisted “evacuated “ inaccurately.
“destroy” message – embarrassed to be perceived as incompetent? Destruction of sensitive communiqués is good housekeeping. Destruction of classified material is the primary focus of an
Emergency Action Plan ( EAP) which would have been in effect at the time.
“Evidence-2” Hard drives at weapons facilities replaced One scientist possessed documents at home
Powell Deceive, hide, keep from inspectors
Devil’s Advocate
Periodic replacement of hard drives at sensitive locations is standard INFOSEC and OPSEC.
Many scientists, engineers, and even students take working papers & documents to continue work at home as I’m sure many of us in this room do (to our partners’ discontent).
Not all “classified” documents are nefarious in nature – In fact most are rather mundane.
“Evidence-2a”
“Detailed plans” for a UAV recovered from a residence*
* Location: 5604 Flag Run Drive, Springfield, VA
Road
CedarRambler
“Evidence-3” Satellite photos of weapons
movement Powell
Weapons exist based on “movement”, “signatures”
Devil’s Advocate No corroborating hard evidence that anything at all
was actually in the bunkers. Decontamination vehicle
is a high-pressure power washer which can be used for peaceful commercial purposes.
Even the Store-it-Yourself facility down US-29 in Fairfax has “Security”.
“Evidence-4” Accused UN inspectors of espionage
Powell Proof of guilt and attempt to coerce population
Devil’s Advocate
Saddam Hussein was a paranoid psychopath.
Patriotism is largely about national pride, and enforcement of inspections by foreigners questioned the legitimacy of Iraqi National Command Authority claims
Hence, cooperation with UN inspectors was unpatriotic, as they were foreign adversaries that were conducting activities that violated Iraqi sovereignty because the didn’t have the best interests of Iraq at heart (i.e., espionage).
“Evidence-5” Scientists warned not to cooperate with UN inspectors Received counter-intelligence training
Powell Indicates attempt to hide truth
Devil’s Advocate
Purpose of CI is to prevent the inadvertent passing of sensitive information to foreign adversaries.
CI Awareness Training is standard OPSEC regularly practiced all over the world.
US normally provides CI Awareness Training annually.
More sensitive US positions require periodic polygraph examinations in addition to CI Awareness Training.
“Evidence-6” Defector provides details and returns of Iraq to his
death under suspicious circumstances Powell
Details provide proof if existence Suspicious death is validation of details
Devil’s Advocate
Defector was conducting espionage – Hence he actually was a traitor to Saddam Hussein.
May have over-inflated his importance/knowledge/ value by sensationalizing claims & over-reaching.
Traitor would have naturally wanted to tell the interrogators (what he thought ) they would want to hear to keep from being sent back to “certain death” in Iraq for espionage.
“Evidence-7” Testimony by Iraqi officers to NBC and delivery
mechanisms Powell
Proof of existence
Devil’s Advocate
“Delivery mechanisms” can deliver anything. Similar argument was made against US when Gary Powers
was shot down in his U2 over USSR:
He stated that he was pushing a button to take pictures, Soviets asserted that he could have been pushing a button to
drop bombs, Following that logic, Gary Powers could have released chemical,
biological or nuclear weapons from a US plane over the USSR.
It is very difficult to prove a negative.
“Evidence-8” Intercepted communications on dual use items
Powell Need for SIGINT and HUMINT Well documented chemical warfare history “Why should any of us give Iraq the benefit of the
doubt?”
Devil’s Advocate
Intelligence cited has not been fused and data that were presented were only separate instances of Single-Source Intelligence which hardly qualified as Multi-INT.
Incidents presented were neither thoroughly correlated nor properly substantiated – Much of it was RUMINT at best.
“Evidence-9” Acquisition and construction of missile
and airborne WMD delivery vehicles Powell
Clear indication of intent Devil’s Advocate
UAV/UAS platform didn’t fly beyond the stated range limitation either one-way or round-trip.
Demonstration wasn’t technically a violation. UAV/UAS platforms are also excellent for aerial
surveillance and some have no lethality whatsoever: Global Hawk (remember earlier diagram) Fire Scout (also made by Northrop Grumman)
David Miller
Devil’s Advocate Deconstruction
#2
Indeed, the facts and Iraq’s behavior show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003
•Iraq is not cooperating and is producing WMDs.
IRAQ’S WMD THREAT
All weapons—biological, chemical, missile, nuclear, were destroyed.General Hussein Kamal, former director of Iraq’s weapons programs, to UNSCOM in August 22, 1995, after defecting from Iraq. Killed upon returning to Iraq in 1996.
Since we arrived in Iraq, we have conducted more than 400 inspections covering more than 300 sites. …it is seen from our experience that Iraq had decided in principle to provide cooperation on process. R
Dr. Hans Blix, UN Chief Weapons Inspector, UN Security Council, February 14, 2003
• Iraq is cooperating and is not producing WMDs.
UNMOVIC inspections are more sophisticated, and receiving more cooperation from the Iraqis, than previous UNSCOM inspections, and UNSCOM destroyed more chemical and biological weapons facilities than the Gulf war. No evidence that Colin Powell has presented today suggests we need to rush headlong into war.Dr. Ian Davis, British American Security Information Council, February 5, 2003
• Inspections are working.
IRAQ’S WMD THREAT
What we see is a deliberate campaign to prevent any meaningful inspection work.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003
• Inspections are not working.
There can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has biological weapons and the capability to rapidly produce more, many more.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003
• Iraq has and is building WMDs.
From 27 November 2002 to 17 March 2003, UNMOVIC conducted over 90 inspections of (biological and chemical) munitions-related facilities in Iraq. No evidence of either current or recent development or production of proscribed munitions was uncovered.UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (MOVIC), 2003
Biological & Chemical Weapons
While we were never able to provide 100 percent certainty regarding the disposition of Iraq's proscribed weaponry, we did ascertain a 90-95 percent level of verified disarmament.Scott Ritter, UN weapons inspector from 1991-98 (UNSCOM), July 20, 2002
• There is little or no evidence of WMDs in Iraq.
In May 2002, our satellites photographed the unusual activity in this picture. Here we see cargo vehicles are again at this transshipment point, and we can see that they are accompanied by a decontamination vehicle associated with biological or chemical weapons activity.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003
• Proves weapons activity
The "decontamination vehicles" U.N. teams were led to by U.S. information invariably turned out to be simple water or fire trucks.Inspector Jorn Siljeholm, MOVIC, March 19, 2003
• Does not prove weapons activity
Chemical Weapons
Nuclear Weapons
The Intelligence Bureau and the State Department at this time we were preparing Secretary Powell (for the UN speech) dissented on one key issue. And they essentially said there was no active nuclear program in Iraq. Laurence Wilkerson, Chief of Staff, U.S. Department of State, statement on preparing Secretary Powell for UN speech
• Iraq does not have an active nuclear weapons program.
We have more than a decade of proof that he remains determined to acquire nuclear weapons.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003
• Iraq has an active nuclear weapons program.
Nuclear Weapons
First, we have inspected all of those buildings and facilities that were identified, through satellite imagery, as having been modified or constructed over the past four years. No prohibited nuclear activities have been identified during these inspections.Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General IAEA, UN Security Council, January 27, 2003
• No evidence that Iraq is pursuing nuclear weapons.
We have no indication that Saddam Hussein has ever abandoned his nuclear weapons program.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003
• Iraq is still pursuing nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Weapons Sites
Bombed by Israelis, 1981
Bombed by coalition, 1990-93
Monitored by IAEA
• Nuclear sites were either destroyed or are being monitored.
Ballistic Missiles
What I want you to know today is that Iraq has programs that are intended to produce ballistic missiles that can fly over 1,000 kilometers.Secretary Powell, UN Security Council, February 5, 2003
• Iraq has an active ballistic missile program.
Iraq doesn’t have the capability to do long-range ballistic missiles. There is a lot of testing that has to take place, and this testing is all carried out outdoors. They can’t avoid detection.Scott Ritter, UN weapons inspector from 1991-98 (UNSCOM), 2002
• Iraq does not have a ballistic missile capability.
Meredith Hollowell
What If Scenario
“What If?” AnalysisA Trail of Causation Assumes an event has occurred with potential (negative or
positive) impact and explains how it might come about. Focuses on the causes of an event vs. its consequences (HI/LP).
Useful for challenging a strong mindset that a confidently made forecast might not be entirely justified.
Use of this technique is important when examining a decision based on questionable or limited information, providing policymakers with a cautionary counterpoint to the conventional wisdom.
Steps to take: Think backwards and develop a plausible pathway through which this hypothetical event occurs.
Present to the group the findings that enable decision-makers to ‘hedge their bets’ even if the conventional analytic line is accepted.
Continue to monitor any indicators as the situation develops.
Conventional Analytic Line According to Powell’s UN Security
Council Brief and the “evidence” compiled: Saddam Hussein has WMDs Saddam Hussein has shown
megalomaniacal tendencies Conclusion: To protect the free world we
must preempt any attack
“What If?”ScenarioThe possibility of a total economic collapse is remote, but what if, as a result of acting on the conventional analysis the US finds itself in a protracted two theater war, causing a catastrophic economic collapse and therefore weakened ability to deal with potential security threats?
Thinking Backwards Steps leading up to a total economic collapse
Act on hearsay and circumstantial findings that Iraq has WMDs Military Action – invade Iraq as a coalition force with the
intent to force Saddam’s hand
Due to overwhelming fire power and Saddam’s reduced capability fighting attrition-style warfare from the first Gulf War, coalition forces easily topple Saddam’s regime and kill Saddam Hussein
Prior to being ousted Saddam makes one last bid at vengeance Destroys profit-making infrastructure to prevent coalition
use of it.
Thinking Backwards (cont) Fear on the part of the US to leave a political and security
vacuum (similar to Afghanistan in the ’90’s) necessitates an increased presence on the ground in Iraq Now fighting two full-time wars
Increased military spending Iran, seeing a vulnerable US, floods the world market with
cheap oil Causes OPEC nations to slow their purchase of US national
debt China, seizing the opportunity to increase their sphere of
influence, also stops buying US national debt Causes a catastrophic meltdown of the US economy
Historical Perspective
Nation building, governance overhauls and examples of their failures
Vietnam (’65-’75)
Haiti (1994)
Bosnia (’95-’04)
Parting Remarks Some Implications
In the ensuing chaos of the toppled regime in Iraq some of the WMDs, prior to confiscation, go missing
In the weakened state caused by a second Great Depression these missing WMDs can more easily be used against us, to more devastating effect
Caveats Difficult to construct a “What If?” storyline,
looking in hindsight Natural tendency to mimic the path history took Prevents a more thorough analysis
Conclusions
Conclusions Based on:
Saddam Hussein’s profile and known disinformation techniques
Evidence with multiple possible presentations Contradictory evidence And previously unconsidered impacts
There is a low probability that Iraq is in possession of or is pursuing the stockpiling of WMD
And that this could be a case of posturing in an attempt to appear strong and still viable as a national, regional, and global leader